Alarm bells ringing on the 2's 5's curve...Recession is calling
This chart comes after a conversation with Citi... only 4 times in the past 30 years has the US 2's vs 5's curve inverted whilst being in an upward moving yield environment, via Fed QT.
We know from history a few lessons;
(1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy.
(2) A Fed that lags will only add fuel to the flames .. "it's different this time"...
(3) The longer the delayed reaction from Fed, the worst the blow in Equity markets. Assuming Fed moves in July (even with a more aggressive cutting profile e.g 50bps) it is still the 3rd longest delay over this time period. A 25bps is a 'done-deal' so should the Fed buckle and not move (very unlikely) it will mean that markets look at September which would then make this monetary policy 'delay' just marginally quicker than 2000/2001.
Best of luck those tracking for the end of the cycle... this chart will be one for the history books.
We know from history a few lessons;
(1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy.
(2) A Fed that lags will only add fuel to the flames .. "it's different this time"...
(3) The longer the delayed reaction from Fed, the worst the blow in Equity markets. Assuming Fed moves in July (even with a more aggressive cutting profile e.g 50bps) it is still the 3rd longest delay over this time period. A 25bps is a 'done-deal' so should the Fed buckle and not move (very unlikely) it will mean that markets look at September which would then make this monetary policy 'delay' just marginally quicker than 2000/2001.
Best of luck those tracking for the end of the cycle... this chart will be one for the history books.
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