Hey Everyone,
Kept promising a TSLA analysis and never delivering, so finally getting around to it! Its fitting because TSLA has been my daily driver so to speak (good pun huh?) these past 2 weeks and has been VERY kind to me.
And it just so happens that much is happening in the TSLA world so let's get into it:
Recap:
- My caluclated range for TSLA last week was 812 - 920, TSLA remained range bound for most of the week and neither broke out nor broke down from this range.
- On the daily, TSLA formed a rounding bottom/cup and handle/ bull flag type setup that can be seen in the above main chart.
- Friday TSLA made a huge move with gains over 4% in a single day and began the breakout from this handle/bull flag pattern.
- TSLA shareholders have approved an upcoming stock split which is happening in 1.5 weeks (August 25.
- TSLA is running a bit on the hot side of the RSI, but you know TSLA, and I never bat my eye twice at this.
- On the 1 hour TF you can visualize the handle of the cup and handle setup as a sort of bull pennant which has successfully broken out on Friday:
Analysis:
So, is this a short?
No, I don't think so quite yet. So let's get into it:
- Predicted trading range for next week is 798 - 957.
- RSI is running hot on most major time frames; however, I have recently started playing around calculating RSI in SPSS and incorporating this into my math projections. It actually has improved the sensitivity of the projections to upward and downward movement, I am thrilled, but when I look at this on TSLA I see that TSLA is not actually at a point where it does a 180 and comes back down. There is still much room to push up. My own RSI calculation (which is 14 day RSI of Close Price) puts TSLA at 96.57 right now. TSLA usually does its 180 at RSI's greater than 98.70. 98.75 is kind of the sweet spot where you can anticipate some aggressive selling. We are not quite there yet. I trust this over the technical indicator RSIs because this one I can actually back-test and pull historic data from this and the average turn around for TSLA (or Pivot point) in terms of RSI is around 98 based on my own RSI calculations. Take this as you wish.
- Using this same RSI measure to predict Monday sentiment on TSLA gives us a bit of a bearish reading, but not incredibly obnoxiously bearish. So I would take this as maybe some minor pullback to re-test the trend line before continuing a move up. Re-testing this trendline could mean TSLA dropping back down to the 860s before pushing back up (see chart below):
- There is an elephant in the room though. That is TSLA's stock split. And thankfully for us, TSLA is no stranger to stock splits, having just had one not too long ago. And what happened? It ran up leading into the stock split and then sold off afterwards. What is it doing right now? Thus far, its running up into the stock split. I mean, this has been the case for most stocks that have undergone a recent split lately (except GOOG which has been a hot mess lately). But yeah, I am not sure why this should be any different? Keep it simple.
Verdict:
- I am long biased up until the stock split. After words, I would assume a short biased and likely will jump in short on TSLA post stock split.
- The trading range is questionably narrow this week and with my RSI adjusted sentiment indicating potential bearishness on Monday, I suspect this will be a grinding, chop type situation where it pulls back and consolidates only to make a run for it in one day like we saw last week on Friday. This is good for us day traders because we can catch both sides!
I think that pretty much covers everything. Hope you find it useful/helpful.
As always leave your comments/questions/critiques below!
Trade safe and enjoy your weekend everyone!
Kept promising a TSLA analysis and never delivering, so finally getting around to it! Its fitting because TSLA has been my daily driver so to speak (good pun huh?) these past 2 weeks and has been VERY kind to me.
And it just so happens that much is happening in the TSLA world so let's get into it:
Recap:
- My caluclated range for TSLA last week was 812 - 920, TSLA remained range bound for most of the week and neither broke out nor broke down from this range.
- On the daily, TSLA formed a rounding bottom/cup and handle/ bull flag type setup that can be seen in the above main chart.
- Friday TSLA made a huge move with gains over 4% in a single day and began the breakout from this handle/bull flag pattern.
- TSLA shareholders have approved an upcoming stock split which is happening in 1.5 weeks (August 25.
- TSLA is running a bit on the hot side of the RSI, but you know TSLA, and I never bat my eye twice at this.
- On the 1 hour TF you can visualize the handle of the cup and handle setup as a sort of bull pennant which has successfully broken out on Friday:
Analysis:
So, is this a short?
No, I don't think so quite yet. So let's get into it:
- Predicted trading range for next week is 798 - 957.
- RSI is running hot on most major time frames; however, I have recently started playing around calculating RSI in SPSS and incorporating this into my math projections. It actually has improved the sensitivity of the projections to upward and downward movement, I am thrilled, but when I look at this on TSLA I see that TSLA is not actually at a point where it does a 180 and comes back down. There is still much room to push up. My own RSI calculation (which is 14 day RSI of Close Price) puts TSLA at 96.57 right now. TSLA usually does its 180 at RSI's greater than 98.70. 98.75 is kind of the sweet spot where you can anticipate some aggressive selling. We are not quite there yet. I trust this over the technical indicator RSIs because this one I can actually back-test and pull historic data from this and the average turn around for TSLA (or Pivot point) in terms of RSI is around 98 based on my own RSI calculations. Take this as you wish.
- Using this same RSI measure to predict Monday sentiment on TSLA gives us a bit of a bearish reading, but not incredibly obnoxiously bearish. So I would take this as maybe some minor pullback to re-test the trend line before continuing a move up. Re-testing this trendline could mean TSLA dropping back down to the 860s before pushing back up (see chart below):
- There is an elephant in the room though. That is TSLA's stock split. And thankfully for us, TSLA is no stranger to stock splits, having just had one not too long ago. And what happened? It ran up leading into the stock split and then sold off afterwards. What is it doing right now? Thus far, its running up into the stock split. I mean, this has been the case for most stocks that have undergone a recent split lately (except GOOG which has been a hot mess lately). But yeah, I am not sure why this should be any different? Keep it simple.
Verdict:
- I am long biased up until the stock split. After words, I would assume a short biased and likely will jump in short on TSLA post stock split.
- The trading range is questionably narrow this week and with my RSI adjusted sentiment indicating potential bearishness on Monday, I suspect this will be a grinding, chop type situation where it pulls back and consolidates only to make a run for it in one day like we saw last week on Friday. This is good for us day traders because we can catch both sides!
I think that pretty much covers everything. Hope you find it useful/helpful.
As always leave your comments/questions/critiques below!
Trade safe and enjoy your weekend everyone!
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