SPY: Week of August 15

Hey Everyone,

Here is my analysis for SPY for the week of August 15.

Recap:
- SPY pushed pretty hard this week, maintaining bullish momentum for most of the week but falling short of filling its 429 gap.
- SPY broke out of its predicted trading range and reached my TP of 421 for last week, asserting its bullish dominance and preference.
- Friday was parabolic and SPY did not understand the meaning of pullback, closing at rough 426.
- We had some news announcements this week including CPI and consumer sentiment, all of which were improvements which fueled the rallying.

Analysis:

So where are we now?

- SPY is quite overbought on the major TFs, including the daily which is not really a great sign.
- SPY found some gap resistance and wasn't quite able to fill its 429 gap from previously. So this is still on the table.
- On the 1 hour chart, SPY's Z-Score is getting a little on the toppy side, but still some room for SPY to push up (we get the sell signal at + 2.5):


- SPY is approaching some descending resistance which you can see on the daily chart above.
- SPXS is approaching some critical ascending support on the at around 17.50s ish, which you can see below:


- Z Score on SPXS shows some room for downward movement and I fully anticipate SPXS to make contact with its support. SPXS is at -2.01, with a buy signal anticipated at -2.5.

- Predicted trading range for next week is 411 - 435.
- Break and hold above 435 is bullish break for the week and break below 411 is bearish break for the week.
- There are some news coming this week, such as PMI and GDP. Last PMI results were negative but did not affect the trajectory of the market at the time (which was up). The last GDP also did not affect the market too much and derail it from its upward movement. So I think these news are good to be mindful of, but not sure how much they are going to derail SPY from what it wants to do, which seems to be testing this upper resistance.

Analysis Verdict:
- I believe that SPY will gun for that 429 gap fill and push to test the upper resistance at around 431. Here is where I think SPY will make the turn around.
- The extent of its turn around is TBD but I believe that from here there will be a lot of selling pressure and a lot of downward pressure and we will quickly see the bullishness dissipate.
- Immediate TPs are 429 and then 431.

Monday Outlook:

So I have been experimenting with including stochastic and RSI readings into my math projections. This has really smoothed out and pumped up my models ability to predict direction on SPY and TSLA and I am just loving it. So tomorrow will be the first time I try it out SPY's IRL but I will share the results with you thus far so we can both be disappointed together if it fails:

Running this it assumes pullback is inevitable tomorrow and gives a TP of 424 ish. If 424 is broken, the next TP is 422 ish.

I dare say buy the dip here though if this happens, because like I said, I really do think we should at lest see 429 and 430 before any dramatic chaos ensues.
There is the possibility that SPY just pushes further into overbought territory and does not pull back at all. Which is something that SPY has done in the past. I think checking futures out will give us a better sense of what its thinking.

I will post an idea on ES futures upon open with TPs like I did in my last SPY idea as people seemed to find that helpful. Once futures opens, my model's indicators will be able to give real time targets and I can share accordingly.


That's it everyone!

As always, trade safe! Leave your comments, questions and critiques below!

Thanks for reading!