QQQ has been extremely interesting this week. I have to say QQQ has the most interesting chart out of all of the ETFs and even stocks. What makes it interesting is that it is the most bullish looking, with an actual breakout and hold of a hard resistance line that is absent in most other ETFs and stocks (namely SPY). Its interesting as well owning to the poor economic and sociopolitical circumstances that are surrounding us today. It makes QQQ a really tough call on what to expect.
Recap:
- QQQ hit my TP of 330 this week and hit it twice. Interestingly, when running my own forecasting models on QQQ, my SAS software figured it would close around 330 on Friday (when I ran it last Friday) and it in fact did! Which is really interesting.
- QQQ struggled to break out from the descending trendline, fakeing out a couple of times only to finally just go for it and break out and HOLD above.
- SQQQ has dropped below most support and it currently is sitting in no-mans land. The next level of support for SQQQ is around 31.45 and it is more of a substantial support than the one it is currently resting at now. See chart below:
Analysis:
- Looking at the Z-Score, there is room for downward movement on SQQQ and upward movement on QQQ.
- QQQ did a moon bottom on the weekly and a sort of pipe bottom on the monthly.
- Looking at the actual Z Score chart for QQQ over the last 1 year of trading data, it is at an area of mathmatical resistance (almost -0.5 Standard Deviations), with the next area of resistance being around -0.2, or 340$:
- Calculated trading range for next week is fairly large, 301 - 353.
- Bullish calculated TP is 338
- Bearish calculated TP is 321
- Based on the chart I see room for us to achieve both calculated TPs this week without derailing QQQ from its current trajectory, with my preference being 338 ONLY because I believe SPY has more upside room and QQQ should follow.
- QQQ is overbought on the 1 hour time frame and getting there on the daily. Pullback is likely and my TP would be that 321 area.
Verdict:
- My overall bias here is actually neutral, but I do believe we will see a bit more upside because I believe a bit more upside is in the cards for SPY.
- QQQ has a large holding in AAPL which is just barreling towards previous ATHs. I am not sure if AAPL will get there, I don't trade it or track it, BUT I don't think AAPL is ready to do a complete 180 yet.
- QQQ needs pullback based on the current RSI readings, but with the overwhelming and unfettered bullishness that has taken over the market I would be cautious here getting too short happy. My TP for pullback is around 321, this is the calculated bearish TP and also corresponds with the support line that QQQ has broken out of.
That's it, trade safe, enjoy your weekend and as always let me know your questions/comments and critiques below!
Recap:
- QQQ hit my TP of 330 this week and hit it twice. Interestingly, when running my own forecasting models on QQQ, my SAS software figured it would close around 330 on Friday (when I ran it last Friday) and it in fact did! Which is really interesting.
- QQQ struggled to break out from the descending trendline, fakeing out a couple of times only to finally just go for it and break out and HOLD above.
- SQQQ has dropped below most support and it currently is sitting in no-mans land. The next level of support for SQQQ is around 31.45 and it is more of a substantial support than the one it is currently resting at now. See chart below:
Analysis:
- Looking at the Z-Score, there is room for downward movement on SQQQ and upward movement on QQQ.
- QQQ did a moon bottom on the weekly and a sort of pipe bottom on the monthly.
- Looking at the actual Z Score chart for QQQ over the last 1 year of trading data, it is at an area of mathmatical resistance (almost -0.5 Standard Deviations), with the next area of resistance being around -0.2, or 340$:
- Calculated trading range for next week is fairly large, 301 - 353.
- Bullish calculated TP is 338
- Bearish calculated TP is 321
- Based on the chart I see room for us to achieve both calculated TPs this week without derailing QQQ from its current trajectory, with my preference being 338 ONLY because I believe SPY has more upside room and QQQ should follow.
- QQQ is overbought on the 1 hour time frame and getting there on the daily. Pullback is likely and my TP would be that 321 area.
Verdict:
- My overall bias here is actually neutral, but I do believe we will see a bit more upside because I believe a bit more upside is in the cards for SPY.
- QQQ has a large holding in AAPL which is just barreling towards previous ATHs. I am not sure if AAPL will get there, I don't trade it or track it, BUT I don't think AAPL is ready to do a complete 180 yet.
- QQQ needs pullback based on the current RSI readings, but with the overwhelming and unfettered bullishness that has taken over the market I would be cautious here getting too short happy. My TP for pullback is around 321, this is the calculated bearish TP and also corresponds with the support line that QQQ has broken out of.
That's it, trade safe, enjoy your weekend and as always let me know your questions/comments and critiques below!
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