Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Litecoin! Today, we're going to be assessing an important lesson in technical analysis - one that I like to call "pattern repetitions." So, without further ado, let's get to it!
Looking at the daily LTC chart, we can see that litecoin had a powerful upseide breakout of the downtrend channel, and has since run into overhead resistance at about $47.25. If you recall from my previous analyses, we were following a fractal pattern that I had identified in Litecoin, which would have produced a powerful breakdown to the bottom of the downtrend channel, if the fractal would have continued. Instead, we saw an end of the fractal pattern, and a powerful breakout to the upside.
If you recall from my second to last LTC analysis, I said "if price breaks out above the top of the downtrend channel , and confirms above it, that would be a deviation from the fractal pattern, and it would be a technical buy signal. Regardless, I will be a buyer if we break out, and a seller if we get rejected here." As we all know, LTC broke our to the upside, and posted over 30% in gains. I was fortunate enough to stick to my guns, and I went long as soon as we broke out to the upside. However, there is a lesson to be learned here, and that lesson revolves around pattern repetitions.
If you recall from my previous analyses on the inverted head and shoulders pattern (in green,) the pattern produced a slight breakout above the neckline, and then failed to hold above it, falling back to the downside. At that point, a lot of the trolls came out of the woodwork to trash talk the inverted head and shoulders pattern, and there are two things that I want to say about that:
Number one, a pattern is a pattern, regardless of whether or not it breaks out in the expected direction. Patterns fail all the time (like the inverted head and shoulders pattern (in green)) but that doesn't mean it suddenly isn't an inverted head and shoulders pattern. It's simply a FAILED inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Number two, patterns often repeat themselves, and fail to break out on the initial iteration of the technical pattern, only to break out on later iterations of that pattern. This is extremely important to understand, and it is why you should never write off a pattern as soon as it fails. This concept is particularly true for head and shoulders, and inverted head and shoulders patterns. On the chart, we can see that a much smaller inverted head and shoulders pattern (in blue) was formed, just before LTC's major explosion out of the downtrend channel. So, that pattern repetition was an indication of an explosive upside move, that would vindicate the failed breakout of the original inverted head and shoulders pattern (in green.)
So, where do we go from here? Well, if we make another attempt for 47.25, that would suggest that we are in a bull flag, and I would then be looking for a breakout above that level. If that happens, resistance would be at the 200 EMA (in purple.)
If LTC doesn't break out above 47.25. I would expect it to gyrate between that level, and the rising green trendline around 39-40, or potentially as low as the 50 EMA (in orange.) The breakout volume was powerful, but there hasn't been much follow-through with powerful buy-side volume. Furthermore, the MACD is starting to level off, showing that there is a slowdown in buy-side momentum.
From a fundamental standpoint, I think it's worth considering that the market has already priced in the LTC halving that is coming up. That will technically depend on whether or not 47.25 can continue to provide upside resistance.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Looking at the daily LTC chart, we can see that litecoin had a powerful upseide breakout of the downtrend channel, and has since run into overhead resistance at about $47.25. If you recall from my previous analyses, we were following a fractal pattern that I had identified in Litecoin, which would have produced a powerful breakdown to the bottom of the downtrend channel, if the fractal would have continued. Instead, we saw an end of the fractal pattern, and a powerful breakout to the upside.
If you recall from my second to last LTC analysis, I said "if price breaks out above the top of the downtrend channel , and confirms above it, that would be a deviation from the fractal pattern, and it would be a technical buy signal. Regardless, I will be a buyer if we break out, and a seller if we get rejected here." As we all know, LTC broke our to the upside, and posted over 30% in gains. I was fortunate enough to stick to my guns, and I went long as soon as we broke out to the upside. However, there is a lesson to be learned here, and that lesson revolves around pattern repetitions.
If you recall from my previous analyses on the inverted head and shoulders pattern (in green,) the pattern produced a slight breakout above the neckline, and then failed to hold above it, falling back to the downside. At that point, a lot of the trolls came out of the woodwork to trash talk the inverted head and shoulders pattern, and there are two things that I want to say about that:
Number one, a pattern is a pattern, regardless of whether or not it breaks out in the expected direction. Patterns fail all the time (like the inverted head and shoulders pattern (in green)) but that doesn't mean it suddenly isn't an inverted head and shoulders pattern. It's simply a FAILED inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Number two, patterns often repeat themselves, and fail to break out on the initial iteration of the technical pattern, only to break out on later iterations of that pattern. This is extremely important to understand, and it is why you should never write off a pattern as soon as it fails. This concept is particularly true for head and shoulders, and inverted head and shoulders patterns. On the chart, we can see that a much smaller inverted head and shoulders pattern (in blue) was formed, just before LTC's major explosion out of the downtrend channel. So, that pattern repetition was an indication of an explosive upside move, that would vindicate the failed breakout of the original inverted head and shoulders pattern (in green.)
So, where do we go from here? Well, if we make another attempt for 47.25, that would suggest that we are in a bull flag, and I would then be looking for a breakout above that level. If that happens, resistance would be at the 200 EMA (in purple.)
If LTC doesn't break out above 47.25. I would expect it to gyrate between that level, and the rising green trendline around 39-40, or potentially as low as the 50 EMA (in orange.) The breakout volume was powerful, but there hasn't been much follow-through with powerful buy-side volume. Furthermore, the MACD is starting to level off, showing that there is a slowdown in buy-side momentum.
From a fundamental standpoint, I think it's worth considering that the market has already priced in the LTC halving that is coming up. That will technically depend on whether or not 47.25 can continue to provide upside resistance.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-