A key reversal on EUR/USD just formed at a major support cluster
A bullish engulfing candle has formed on the EUR/USD daily chart, which could carry some weight given the technical levels of support it sits upon.
Despite an intraday break below 1.0700, the market rebounded and closed back above this big round number. The 200-day EMA also provided support following an intraday false break beneath it, and it is worth mentioning that the 200-day EMA provided support on three occasions between the end of February and beginning of March before a strong rally formed.
The RSI (14) dipped to its lowest level since September 2022. Whilst it is not within the classic oversold level of 30, it now sits at a similar level to the RSI low in February which preceded the March Rally.
Furthermore, yesterday’s low held above the March VPOC (volume point of control), which is the most traded level by volume (or ticks, in the case of spot forex). Whilst many would prefer real ‘exchange’ volume, I regularly use the ICE feed as it is an amalgamation of FX feeds and their respective liquidity providers, and I generally find their tick volumes to be quite reliable.
And finally, the decline form the May high has been in a relatively straight line which almost begs for correction higher.
So it appears we are at or very near to an inflection point on EUR/USD, and a move to 1.0800 seems achievable given the depth of its decline from the May high. Of course, incoming data is key so we will keep an eye on employment data for the US this week (ADP, JOLTS, layoffs, jobless claims) and to see if the jobs market shows further signs of softening ahead of Friday's NFP report, as that could reduce bets of a June Fed hike and support EUR/USD.
Despite an intraday break below 1.0700, the market rebounded and closed back above this big round number. The 200-day EMA also provided support following an intraday false break beneath it, and it is worth mentioning that the 200-day EMA provided support on three occasions between the end of February and beginning of March before a strong rally formed.
The RSI (14) dipped to its lowest level since September 2022. Whilst it is not within the classic oversold level of 30, it now sits at a similar level to the RSI low in February which preceded the March Rally.
Furthermore, yesterday’s low held above the March VPOC (volume point of control), which is the most traded level by volume (or ticks, in the case of spot forex). Whilst many would prefer real ‘exchange’ volume, I regularly use the ICE feed as it is an amalgamation of FX feeds and their respective liquidity providers, and I generally find their tick volumes to be quite reliable.
And finally, the decline form the May high has been in a relatively straight line which almost begs for correction higher.
So it appears we are at or very near to an inflection point on EUR/USD, and a move to 1.0800 seems achievable given the depth of its decline from the May high. Of course, incoming data is key so we will keep an eye on employment data for the US this week (ADP, JOLTS, layoffs, jobless claims) and to see if the jobs market shows further signs of softening ahead of Friday's NFP report, as that could reduce bets of a June Fed hike and support EUR/USD.
