$29k-39k $BTC before we head back to $57k?

In my most recent analysis, I had laid out the path for us to get to $57k-61k as the next levels of resistance that we need to hit. However, over the past few days, I've changed my view on $BTC going higher from here as it failed to get above the $52k level and hold.

Now I think the most likely path from here is for BTC to fall to the $30k range -- either stopping at $39k, or potentially testing the $34k region in the worst case scenario on this next move.

Then, I think even if we find support at $39k in January and if BTC bounces higher from there (even up to the mid $50k range or that $57k resistance), there's a decent chance that BTC bounces rolls over, forming a head and shoulders pattern and breaks down further to $29k-34k sometime in February or March before it finds some mid term relief.

If this plays out, it means that alts could see substantial drops from here. I'm fully in cash at this point waiting to see how the next few weeks play out. I will update alt charts once BTC finds a bottom.

I've drawn a few different scenarios I could see playing out. I don't know exactly the path BTC will take, but I know that these are important levels ($39k,34k,29k) that will likely get hit at some point. I'll update this as I see price action play out.

Stay safe out there and keep stop losses tight if you want to take the opposite side of this idea.

Komentarz:

Looking at the chart, it seems as though the second idea is playing out as of now. We got a touch on the $39k support almost to the dollar. Today is a pivot for price action and price has turned green on the Heikin Ashi candle which leads me to believe price will bounce here.

That said, I want to see another green daily candle or two before I think the direction is higher from here.

If this does play out and we bounce, I think we'll follow a path similar to the second line where we bounce to around $46-48k, and then reject at resistance and fall lower.

I'll update as I have a better idea as to direction.

Komentarz:

The other possibility is that we move in a sideways range for a week or so and then fall lower before we get the real bounce.

I'm not taking any positions yet... just wanted to update w/ multiple possibilities from what I'm seeing here.

Komentarz:

After looking at things in different ways and with different indicators, my bias still leads to more downside here, but trying to keep an open mind about the potential for a bounce first.

Komentarz:

Okay, flipping bullish actually (after a pullback to test support). Will update w/ a new chart shortly.

Komentarz:

updated thoughts

Komentarz:

Okay, lean towards the bearish outcome first presented on this chart. The structure here looks bearish. Pretty much a toss up at this point but the only thing that would keep a bullish outcome is a hold of the $39k support. The reason I lean towards the bearish outcome is because the momentum to the downside seems like it's accelerating so I think the support is likely to break on a retest.

Komentarz:

Looking to me like we found short term support. Would look for a move up to $46-47k. If it can close above those levels, then the bullish chart that I posted earlier is the primary view, however if it can't break those levels, then look for the bearish outcome after the bounce.

Komentarz:

New idea:

Komentarz:

The new idea is basically the same idea that was presented originally on this chart, just a cleaner view as this is my primary scenario now going forward.

"Now I think the most likely path from here is for BTC to fall to the $30k range -- either stopping at $39k, or potentially testing the $34k region in the worst case scenario on this next move.

Then, I think even if we find support at $39k in January and if BTC bounces higher from there (even up to the mid $50k range or that $57k resistance), there's a decent chance that BTC bounces rolls over, forming a head and shoulders pattern and breaks down further to $29k-34k sometime in February or March before it finds some mid term relief."

I think the second half of this is playing out now-- where we get a bounce to the $50ks

Komentarz:

Alright sorry for changing direction so many times, but this market is choppy and hard to make sense of the direction. Just trying to update you as I see things change and get more clarity.

My current thoughts are that I think this original idea will end up being correct that we still have some more downside to go in the short term. I think next week on the Jan 24th/25th, we will end up having a pivot that sends price action down further. Then we should bottom/rebound around Feb 14th.

How low do we go? I think we bottom at the $34k level or at the $29k level but lean towards the $34k level being where we stop.

Komentarz:

If next week price doesn't head lower, then the original idea laid out here would be correct. Then the pivot next week will send price to the $50ks following the path of the highest red line