Hi All,
I have received some requests to update my TA on BTC. The reason that I haven’t been posting a new TA on BTC for a while is because:
1. BTC is still going up inside the uptrend channel in which I have posted in the updated idea section in my latest TA on BTC
2. I have been cautious about giving advice since the short squeeze in April. I knew some of you lost money because of me and I felt terrible about it. I have received numerous unpleasant messages which were very difficult for me to absorb.
In the last few months I have been spending a huge amount of time studying, researching & answering PMs, out of my normal work hours, for free. My intention has always been trying to help others while improving myself on my trading journey via looking at my follower’s constructive feedback. For those that gave me constructive feedback and encouragement, I am really appreciated. For those haters, I also have to say thank you because you have encouraged me to become a better trader.
Recently, some of my followers asked me – “have you became bullish since you are expecting alt coins to go up?” The answer is no, I haven’t. As you can see from my latest update on BTC a week ago, I do expect BTC to go above 10k before the drop to below $5k. It might take weeks, or months. However, at the meantime, I do see some of the alts are finding significant long term support (eg. Stratis, DGB). If you compare those alts with BTC you can see that BTC has not really found a ‘significant’ support. I am not convinced the bottom is in, unless the 6 months trendline (shown in chart above) is retested again and found it as support.
Since the April short squeeze, I realised that I shouldn’t be giving just one direction as some of the followers just listened to my advice, without having any entry/exit strategy in place, nor do they have a proper risk/reward ratio. If you would like to know how to set up a great risk/reward ratio (5+), you can refer to my previous TA on LTC (in the comments section). Although I am still overall bearish, I still made some money on the way up. If you also would like to know more, I would suggest you to have a look at tutsunrise’s Youtube videos where he suggested that you should place a few orders (say, 2) for each trade. One order you can try to make a 1:1 return so that even if you make a loss on the second order, you can still break even. And the second order is where you can make money risk free.
Now, look at the BTC chart above, I have drawn two possible channels, one uptrend and one downtrend. To me, I am in favour of the rise to $12870, which is also around the 50% retrace from the ATH to $6k, before the drop to below $5k. I am not saying that it will 100% happen as situations will need to be assessed every step of the way. I am only giving possible scenarios so you can trade according to your trading strategy. This is called 'Classification' (refer to tntsunrise's post below)
In terms of MACD, you can see BTC is at a crucial point where a breakout is imminent.
In terms of EMA, 4hr & daily EMA200 can be a good support although the weekly EMA200 is way below the current price action.
As you can see from the chart, there is no clear path as to which direction BTC will follow. So, right now, my strategy is not to trade BTC. Firstly, I can’t see BTC having much gain in the next 6 months (probably x3 max). Secondly, some of the alt coins have found significant support and have been accumulating for more than 6 months. They are most likely going to rise by x5 – x20 within the next 6 months. If you really, really, want to swing trade BTC (high risk) you can try to buy at each support. And if you want to short BTC, you can try to short at each resistance. But please do not use leverage on Cryptos.
Taiwan Bear
******************************************************************************************
Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
I have received some requests to update my TA on BTC. The reason that I haven’t been posting a new TA on BTC for a while is because:
1. BTC is still going up inside the uptrend channel in which I have posted in the updated idea section in my latest TA on BTC
2. I have been cautious about giving advice since the short squeeze in April. I knew some of you lost money because of me and I felt terrible about it. I have received numerous unpleasant messages which were very difficult for me to absorb.
In the last few months I have been spending a huge amount of time studying, researching & answering PMs, out of my normal work hours, for free. My intention has always been trying to help others while improving myself on my trading journey via looking at my follower’s constructive feedback. For those that gave me constructive feedback and encouragement, I am really appreciated. For those haters, I also have to say thank you because you have encouraged me to become a better trader.
Recently, some of my followers asked me – “have you became bullish since you are expecting alt coins to go up?” The answer is no, I haven’t. As you can see from my latest update on BTC a week ago, I do expect BTC to go above 10k before the drop to below $5k. It might take weeks, or months. However, at the meantime, I do see some of the alts are finding significant long term support (eg. Stratis, DGB). If you compare those alts with BTC you can see that BTC has not really found a ‘significant’ support. I am not convinced the bottom is in, unless the 6 months trendline (shown in chart above) is retested again and found it as support.
Since the April short squeeze, I realised that I shouldn’t be giving just one direction as some of the followers just listened to my advice, without having any entry/exit strategy in place, nor do they have a proper risk/reward ratio. If you would like to know how to set up a great risk/reward ratio (5+), you can refer to my previous TA on LTC (in the comments section). Although I am still overall bearish, I still made some money on the way up. If you also would like to know more, I would suggest you to have a look at tutsunrise’s Youtube videos where he suggested that you should place a few orders (say, 2) for each trade. One order you can try to make a 1:1 return so that even if you make a loss on the second order, you can still break even. And the second order is where you can make money risk free.
Now, look at the BTC chart above, I have drawn two possible channels, one uptrend and one downtrend. To me, I am in favour of the rise to $12870, which is also around the 50% retrace from the ATH to $6k, before the drop to below $5k. I am not saying that it will 100% happen as situations will need to be assessed every step of the way. I am only giving possible scenarios so you can trade according to your trading strategy. This is called 'Classification' (refer to tntsunrise's post below)
In terms of MACD, you can see BTC is at a crucial point where a breakout is imminent.
In terms of EMA, 4hr & daily EMA200 can be a good support although the weekly EMA200 is way below the current price action.
As you can see from the chart, there is no clear path as to which direction BTC will follow. So, right now, my strategy is not to trade BTC. Firstly, I can’t see BTC having much gain in the next 6 months (probably x3 max). Secondly, some of the alt coins have found significant support and have been accumulating for more than 6 months. They are most likely going to rise by x5 – x20 within the next 6 months. If you really, really, want to swing trade BTC (high risk) you can try to buy at each support. And if you want to short BTC, you can try to short at each resistance. But please do not use leverage on Cryptos.
Taiwan Bear
******************************************************************************************
Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Komentarz:
Just showing you the possible path for BTC. Like I said, I am not going to trade BTC for now, either short or long.
Linear:
Log:
Linear:
Log:
Komentarz:
Komentarz:
Komentarz:
Go to "Share" at the bottom right of the above chart, then click on "Make it mine"