AI Momentum is a kernel function based momentum Indicator. It uses Rational Quadratics to help smooth out the Moving Averages, this may give them a more accurate result. This Indicator has 2 main uses, first it displays ‘Zones’ that help you visualize the potential movement areas and when the price is out of bounds (Overvalued or Undervalued). Secondly it creates signals that display the momentum of the current trend.
The Zones are composed of the Highest Highs and Lowest lows turned into a Rational Quadratic over varying lengths. These create our Rational High and Low zones. There is however a second zone. The second zone is composed of the avg of the Inner High and Inner Low zones (yellow line) and the Rational Quadratic of the current Close. This helps to create a second zone that is within the High and Low bounds that may represent momentum changes within these zones. When the Rationalized Close crosses above the High and Low Zone Average it may signify a bullish momentum change and vice versa when it crosses below.
There are 3 different signals created to display momentum:
- Bullish and Bearish Momentum. These signals display when there is current bullish or bearish momentum happening within the trend. When the momentum changes there will likely be a lull where there are neither Bullish or Bearish momentum signals. These signals may be useful to help visualize when the momentum has started and stopped for both the bulls and the bears. Bullish Momentum is calculated by checking if the Rational Quadratic Close > Rational Quadratic of the Highest OHLC4 smoothed over a VWMA. The Bearish Momentum is calculated by checking the opposite.
- Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum. These signals occur when the bar has Bullish or Bearish Momentum and also has an Rationalized RSI greater or less than a certain level. Bullish is >= 57 and Bearish is <= 43. There is also the option to ‘Factor Volume’ into these signals. This means, the Overly Bullish and Bearish Signals will only occur when the Rationalized Volume > VWMA Rationalized Volume as well as the previously mentioned factors above. This can be useful for removing ‘clutter’ as volume may dictate when these momentum changes will occur, but it can also remove some of the useful signals and you may miss the swing too if the volume just was low. Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum may dictate when a momentum change will occur. Remember, they are OVERLY Bullish and Bearish, meaning there is a chance a correction may occur around these signals.
- Bull and Bear Crosses. These signals occur when the Rationalized Close crosses the Gaussian Close that is 2 bars back. These signals may show when there is a strong change in momentum, but be careful as more often than not they’re predicting that the momentum may change in the opposite direction.
As we can see in the example above, generally what happens is we get the regular Bullish or Bearish momentum, followed by the Rationalized Close crossing the Zone average and finally the Overly Bullish or Bearish signals. This is normally the order of operations but isn’t always how it happens as sometimes momentum changes don’t make it that far; also the Rationalized Close and Zone Average don’t follow any of the same math as the Signals which can result in differing appearances. The Bull and Bear Crosses are also quite sporadic in appearance and don’t generally follow any sort of order of operations. However, they may occur as a Predictor between Bullish and Bearish momentum, signifying the beginning of the momentum change.
The Bull and Bear crosses may be a Predictor of momentum change. They generally happen when there is no Bullish or Bearish momentum happening; and this helps to add strength to their prediction. When they occur during momentum (orange circle) there is a less likely chance that it will happen, and may instead signify the exact opposite; it may help predict a large spike in momentum in the direction of the Bullish or Bearish momentum. In the case of the orange circle, there is currently Bearish Momentum and therefore the Bull Cross may help predict a large momentum movement is about to occur in favor of the Bears.
We have disabled signals here to properly display and talk about the zones. As you can see, Rationalizing the Highest Highs and Lowest Lows over 2 different lengths creates inner and outer bounds that help to predict where parabolic movement and momentum may move to. Our Inner and Outer zones are great for seeing potential Support and Resistance locations.
The secondary zone, which can cross over and change from Green to Red is also a very important zone. Let's zoom in and talk about it specifically.
The Middle Zone Crosses may help deduce where parabolic movement and strong momentum changes may occur. Generally what may happen is when the cross occurs, you will see parabolic movement to the High / Low zones. This may be the Inner zone but can sometimes be the outer zone too. The hard part is sometimes it can be a Fakeout, like displayed with the Blue Circle. The Cross doesn’t mean it may move to the opposing side, sometimes it may just be predicting Parabolic movement in a general sense.
When we turn the Momentum Signals back on, we can see where the Fakeout occurred that it not only almost hit the Inner Low Zone but it also exhibited 2 Overly Bearish Signals. Remember, Overly bearish signals mean a momentum change in favor of the Bulls may occur soon and overly Bullish signals mean a momentum change in favor of the Bears may occur soon.
You may be wondering, well what does “may occur soon” mean and how do we tell?
The purpose of the momentum signals is not only to let you know when Momentum has occurred and when it is still prevalent. It also matters A LOT when it has STOPPED!
In this example above, we look at when the Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum has STOPPED. As you can see, when the Overly Bullish or Bearish Momentum stopped may be a strong predictor of potential momentum change in the opposing direction.
We will conclude our Tutorial here, hopefully this Indicator has been helpful for showing you where momentum is occurring and help predict how far it may move. We have been dabbling with and are planning on releasing a Strategy based on this Indicator shortly.
- Show Signals: Sometimes it can be difficult to visualize the zones with signals enabled.
- Factor Volume: Factor Volume only applies to Overly Bullish and Bearish Signals. It's when the Volume is > VWMA Volume over the Smoothing Length.
- Zone Inside Length: The Zone Inside is the Inner zone of the High and Low. This is the length used to create it.
- Zone Outside Length: The Zone Outside is the Outer zone of the High and Low. This is the length used to create it.
- Smoothing length: Smoothing length is the length used to smooth out our Bullish and Bearish signals, along with our Overly Bullish and Overly Bearish Signals.
2. Kernel Settings:
- Lookback Window: The number of bars used for the estimation. This is a sliding value that represents the most recent historical bars. Recommended range: 3-50.
- Relative Weighting: Relative weighting of time frames. As this value approaches zero, the longer time frames will exert more influence on the estimation. As this value approaches infinity, the behavior of the Rational Quadratic Kernel will become identical to the Gaussian kernel. Recommended range: 0.25-25.
- Start Regression at Bar: Bar index on which to start regression. The first bars of a chart are often highly volatile, and omission of these initial bars often leads to a better overall fit. Recommended range: 5-25.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
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