Bitcoin as a Warning Indicator for SPX 500 Selloffs
This shows that using significant Bitcoin down days as a leading indicator for declines in the S&P 500 is not reliable enough to be useful as a trading tool. However, the lack of a Bitcoin selloff has usually been a reliable indicator of a continuing bull trend.
Relevant: right now, many are calling for a top in the S&P 500, but Bitcoin is not suggesting a selloff at this time. As long as no weakness in BTC, longs of /ES! are not a bad trade.
Relevant: right now, many are calling for a top in the S&P 500, but Bitcoin is not suggesting a selloff at this time. As long as no weakness in BTC, longs of /ES! are not a bad trade.
Zlecenie aktywne:
Entered 3895 puts (about 18) and 3850 puts (22.75) for 2/12 and 2/19 respectively on ES given multiple confirming signals including treasuries (trend reversal/multiple days of increase), the -4% decline in BTC, and big increases in VIX futures (/VX!2 and /VX!1).
If we test previous support at 3830 sooner rather than later, I may close my option trades and look for a re-break below to re-enter some version of them. For now, I'm just hoping this is an actual wave (and not a fakeout) and to ride it.
The massive pumps in cannabis stops do reminisce pumps in GME and AMC a few weeks ago, so fingers crossed that this is actually the big sell we've been waiting for. But I'll believe it when I see it!
If we test previous support at 3830 sooner rather than later, I may close my option trades and look for a re-break below to re-enter some version of them. For now, I'm just hoping this is an actual wave (and not a fakeout) and to ride it.
The massive pumps in cannabis stops do reminisce pumps in GME and AMC a few weeks ago, so fingers crossed that this is actually the big sell we've been waiting for. But I'll believe it when I see it!
Komentarz:
*stocks not stops.
Zlecenie aktywne:
Bitcoin is now down nearly 10% from the highs, although the ES (S&P 500 options) entered are still slightly underwater at 3906. Need 3877 or lower at any point (not necessarily close) to break even this week.
With VIX up and 10-year T Bills up (see related idea), despite S&P 500 also being up depending on the index and time of day, the prospects for continued sell are strong.
With VIX up and 10-year T Bills up (see related idea), despite S&P 500 also being up depending on the index and time of day, the prospects for continued sell are strong.
Komentarz:
It's continued to be a reliable signal and is now signaling at least one more day and probably one more week of bullish movements on SPY.
