PREPWORK FOR 30 HOURS
HEADER - This is a follow up of previous work. As a precaution, first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, second rule of trading is don't forget first rule. As usual, this is meant to used with - whenever possible - continuously updating notes. As always, when price moves against stated plan and updates have not been provided, assume plan is wrong and trade defensively.
SUMMARY - Israel-Gaza news and Middle East geopolitics is driving current price action. Therefore, attention should be paid to headlines about this subject around the clock as not to be caught off guard by highly irregular and volatile price action.
DETAILS - For how we got here, read previous posts. That said, this chart above is our plan for Sunday open through all of Monday. Because of the nature of the situation, it's a waste of time to plan further out in a detailed manner. We will take this a few steps at a time.
SUMMARY - Israel-Gaza news and Middle East geopolitics is driving current price action. Therefore, attention should be paid to headlines about this subject around the clock as not to be caught off guard by highly irregular and volatile price action.
DETAILS - For how we got here, read previous posts. That said, this chart above is our plan for Sunday open through all of Monday. Because of the nature of the situation, it's a waste of time to plan further out in a detailed manner. We will take this a few steps at a time.
Komentarz:
11) expectations as of time of posting is basically the orange hilight
12) the line to watch is the dashed line in the skewed rectangle
13) the rectangle is the expected range of price action
14) with all that said, if we need to scrap this at 6:01 PM ET today when market re-opens
15) we will without hesitation
12) the line to watch is the dashed line in the skewed rectangle
13) the rectangle is the expected range of price action
14) with all that said, if we need to scrap this at 6:01 PM ET today when market re-opens
15) we will without hesitation
Komentarz:
16) FWIW later... here's extension of high vol momentum:
a) for chart above:
b) I left out the second part bc it's too early to think about it
b) I left out the second part bc it's too early to think about it
Komentarz:
10/15 1:29 AM RAW NUMBERS SAY SUNDAY OPEN FIRST ACTION IS:
a) w/o consideration of news whatever
b) open should be gap up to or maybe just simple SPIKE TO 1941 and instantly dropping back to 1932.5 and so on following hi-light
a) w/o consideration of news whatever
b) open should be gap up to or maybe just simple SPIKE TO 1941 and instantly dropping back to 1932.5 and so on following hi-light
Komentarz:
10/15F 10:55 AM ET - Middle East news flash:
a) Israel has called 300K of reservist, amassing, tanks, artillery, fighters, etc...
b) stating they will do this "very soon"
c) Netanyahu says Israel will be successful in its mission to wipe out Hamas...
d) Khamenei has sent a message through the UN security council that...
e) if Israel continues with its ground invasion IRAN WILL INTERVENE
f) Biden has calmed down stating that the millions of Palestinians in Gaza are innocent
g) Sec of Defense has stated carrier groups are to help defend Israel and prevent other state actors from "escalating the situation" not to help Israeli offensive
h) so what so what so what?
i) so tension... so let's see what oil is doing:
a) Israel has called 300K of reservist, amassing, tanks, artillery, fighters, etc...
b) stating they will do this "very soon"
c) Netanyahu says Israel will be successful in its mission to wipe out Hamas...
d) Khamenei has sent a message through the UN security council that...
e) if Israel continues with its ground invasion IRAN WILL INTERVENE
f) Biden has calmed down stating that the millions of Palestinians in Gaza are innocent
g) Sec of Defense has stated carrier groups are to help defend Israel and prevent other state actors from "escalating the situation" not to help Israeli offensive
h) so what so what so what?
i) so tension... so let's see what oil is doing:
Komentarz:
j) oil futures vs spot gold
Komentarz:
Komentarz:
k) so oil reacted w/ HUGE Sunday gap but ALREADY CLOSED THE GAP
l) so it's ready, ready for what?
ready for $95+ by Tuesday's close
l) so it's ready, ready for what?
ready for $95+ by Tuesday's close
Komentarz:
m) gold setup is different and will not be as explosive, even in a higher upside vol situation than our base case
Komentarz:
o) despite all I said, remember, I said gold needed 1950 last week's Wednesday
p) and despite all my logical analysis, price action IS FACT
p) and despite all my logical analysis, price action IS FACT
Komentarz:
q) I keep saying "bollingers demand" here's what that means:
Komentarz:
r)
Komentarz:
s) in chart above left is oil futures in the right is gold spot)
t) in this situation I am not using gold futures (bc I found out that EVEN THOUGH I TRADE GOLD FUTURES OPTIONS, tradingview traders trade spot gold)
u) that's all that it is
v) ok so on the left after "closing the gap" oil is setup for it's wave to move to the top of its bollinger which is $94-95
t) in this situation I am not using gold futures (bc I found out that EVEN THOUGH I TRADE GOLD FUTURES OPTIONS, tradingview traders trade spot gold)
u) that's all that it is
v) ok so on the left after "closing the gap" oil is setup for it's wave to move to the top of its bollinger which is $94-95
Komentarz:
w) here's a break down of technicals for oil
Komentarz:
1) in chart above:
2) the "closing the gap" is very bullish in this situation (and other similar situations)
3) bc it gets all the shorter waves shorter than red wave IN BREAK OUT (read "in order") position
4) when this happens, price hits upper bound of 1-standard deviation of red wave:
5) like this:
2) the "closing the gap" is very bullish in this situation (and other similar situations)
3) bc it gets all the shorter waves shorter than red wave IN BREAK OUT (read "in order") position
4) when this happens, price hits upper bound of 1-standard deviation of red wave:
5) like this:
Komentarz:
Komentarz:
6) so in this situation, even though the red wave is shorter than the dark gray or black wave (red x2), and the purple/navy wave (redx 4), orange wave (red x8)and so on...
7) it's congruent bollinger upper band IS IN THE SAME AREA OF THE AND ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN ORANGE BB
7) it's congruent bollinger upper band IS IN THE SAME AREA OF THE AND ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN ORANGE BB
Komentarz:
8) all that is saying is IF CURRENT TENSIONS KEEP UP 95 on tuesday, $100+ end of the week
9) that's obvious
9) that's obvious
Komentarz:
10) and you don't need to get technical to understand why, this is the MIDDLE EAST
Komentarz:
x) but gold's bollingers (and waves) are not the same (obviously)
Komentarz:
1. to have the same bollingers would require same price action
2. had gold done this:
2. had gold done this:
Komentarz:
3) it STILL WOULDN'T GIVE U THE SAME BOLLINGERS SET, bc we are talking 300 trading days for that exact setup)
Komentarz:
4) so here's what gold is expected to do vs ITS OWN bollingers vs
5) this is the "extension of high vol momentum posted way up this page:
5) this is the "extension of high vol momentum posted way up this page:
Komentarz:
6) here it is again in 2 hr bar:
Komentarz:
7) its bollingers are "in order", it has to go "one by one" to red, dark gray, navy/purple/ orange
8) so it's not getting to 2030-2050 area until end of week
9) and if it does it would mean oil is north of $100 probably
10) get ready.....
8) so it's not getting to 2030-2050 area until end of week
9) and if it does it would mean oil is north of $100 probably
10) get ready.....
Komentarz:
11) to pay much more for gasoline
Komentarz:
y) so despite all tensions, not much change to our status quo base case except... I could see gap up to 1950-1960 at open
z) in which case, it SHOULD CLOSE THAT GAP ON TUESDAY
z) in which case, it SHOULD CLOSE THAT GAP ON TUESDAY
Komentarz:
z1) and I mean the 1932 gap, NOT the 1832 gap (that should go without saying, but you never know w/ some newbies)
Komentarz:
12:05 PM ET ... SOME REALPOLITIK....
1) my feel for the situation is that Iran is not bluffing
2) that implies they have SOME OK from Russia/China
3) bc we are reaching that stage in global geo politics where size of U.S. economy
4) is has failed to keep up with its dominance in geopolitics
5) does Israel want to overplay its hand here?
6) is it sure it is ready for this?
7) Iran is pushing all the right buttons
8) is there American political support for another war in the Middle East?
9) how much pain will regular everyday people take at the pump?
10) are we ready for $12 gasoline?
1) my feel for the situation is that Iran is not bluffing
2) that implies they have SOME OK from Russia/China
3) bc we are reaching that stage in global geo politics where size of U.S. economy
4) is has failed to keep up with its dominance in geopolitics
5) does Israel want to overplay its hand here?
6) is it sure it is ready for this?
7) Iran is pushing all the right buttons
8) is there American political support for another war in the Middle East?
9) how much pain will regular everyday people take at the pump?
10) are we ready for $12 gasoline?
Komentarz:
5:45 PM ET 15 min to Sunday open
1) I'm so busy with life stuff right now
2) just be aware that for the next 30 hours this thing is #3 on my priority list
3) that said I will add as much as I can
1) I'm so busy with life stuff right now
2) just be aware that for the next 30 hours this thing is #3 on my priority list
3) that said I will add as much as I can
Komentarz:
4) and once again for those that misunderstand....
5) I PAY TRADINGVIEW PREMIUM SERVICE SO I can do this for you
6) not the other way around ok?
5) I PAY TRADINGVIEW PREMIUM SERVICE SO I can do this for you
6) not the other way around ok?
Komentarz:
7) how can it be #3?
8) I don't have risk on
8) I don't have risk on
Komentarz:
10/15, 5:57 PM ET, 3 MIN TO OPEN
a) so again, base case is drift to 1960 tomorrow by noon or around there
b) but aware of the other 2 scenarios I covered
c) keep an open mind
d) keep an eye on headline news
a) so again, base case is drift to 1960 tomorrow by noon or around there
b) but aware of the other 2 scenarios I covered
c) keep an open mind
d) keep an eye on headline news
Komentarz:
6:01 PM PLAYING WITH THE HILIGHT 1925.85
a) there's really just 2 major routes
b) our current base case
c) and our previous base case from Saturday
a) there's really just 2 major routes
b) our current base case
c) and our previous base case from Saturday
Komentarz:
d) it was a 10 pt drop to 1921 and our major trend line is currently holding at 6:03 PM ET
Komentarz:
e) so here is 4-min bars right now:
Komentarz:
Komentarz:
f) so now we can eliminate all the gap up and runaway routes that's obvious
g) so what will it do now?
h) there's really just 2 routes that are worth covering
i) the third one isn't worth covering until it proves itself
j) so the time limit for this turn at 1920-ish will come in roughly 4 hours at the black arrow
k) this is roughly speaking 10:15-10:30 PM ET
l) bc price is fact, even though blue route is under dog WE WORRY ABOUT IT FIRST
m) and IT HAS TO PROVE ITSELF BY 9:30 PM ET
n) if it does not...
o) odds STRONGLY FAVOR orange route
g) so what will it do now?
h) there's really just 2 routes that are worth covering
i) the third one isn't worth covering until it proves itself
j) so the time limit for this turn at 1920-ish will come in roughly 4 hours at the black arrow
k) this is roughly speaking 10:15-10:30 PM ET
l) bc price is fact, even though blue route is under dog WE WORRY ABOUT IT FIRST
m) and IT HAS TO PROVE ITSELF BY 9:30 PM ET
n) if it does not...
o) odds STRONGLY FAVOR orange route
Komentarz:
6:15 PM ET 1921.65... IF BULLS ARE LEGIT 1920 SHOULD HOLD STRONG
a) if 1920 breaks early
b) odds would be coin-flipping between orange route and blue route
c) under 2018, I have to believe blue route is favorite
d) why?
e) bc price action says so
a) if 1920 breaks early
b) odds would be coin-flipping between orange route and blue route
c) under 2018, I have to believe blue route is favorite
d) why?
e) bc price action says so
Komentarz:
f) the blue arrow in the chart above crossing the extension of the blue wave basically marks 1918.5, the first high from Friday
g) this is also the turn of the blue bollinger that corresponds with the blue wave
h) so what's the play right now?
g) this is also the turn of the blue bollinger that corresponds with the blue wave
h) so what's the play right now?
Komentarz:
i) ok so I gotta get going but this is what I cans see now:
Komentarz:
j) it is almost the same as Friday BUT WE ARE NOT AT MOMENT OF ENTRY YET
k) so bc Friday was so high vol, we got to that moment right after the 1905 checkdown minutes after open
l) but now that moment looks like 10:30-11:00 PM ET, probably closer to 10:30 (as it stands)
m) the bold diagonal is now the line to watch
n) long above 1919, keep a tight stop and gradually trail your stops
o) expectations are for 1960 by noon ET Monday so roughly 19 hours from now
p) BUT IF UNDER 1919... CONSISTENTLY
q) SHORT WITH A TIGHT STOP RIGHT AT 1919
k) so bc Friday was so high vol, we got to that moment right after the 1905 checkdown minutes after open
l) but now that moment looks like 10:30-11:00 PM ET, probably closer to 10:30 (as it stands)
m) the bold diagonal is now the line to watch
n) long above 1919, keep a tight stop and gradually trail your stops
o) expectations are for 1960 by noon ET Monday so roughly 19 hours from now
p) BUT IF UNDER 1919... CONSISTENTLY
q) SHORT WITH A TIGHT STOP RIGHT AT 1919
Komentarz:
r) why? bc there's really only two major routes if it's not doing orange route
s) it's doing this AND IT SHOULD BE OBVIOUS
s) it's doing this AND IT SHOULD BE OBVIOUS
Komentarz:
t) and IF BY MIDNIGHT ET NEITHER OF THIS IS HAPPENING...
u) ONLY THEN do we need to consider the third route
u) ONLY THEN do we need to consider the third route
Komentarz:
v) I gotta go take care of life stuff ...
w) will check in if there's anything that worth checking in about
x) I don't see anything right now
w) will check in if there's anything that worth checking in about
x) I don't see anything right now
Komentarz:
6:46 MM ET, MAY BE 8:45-9:30 now for entry bc of orange route shift forward about 75 mi like this:
Komentarz:
a) from this:
Komentarz:
b) to this:
Komentarz:
c) but this is still a maybe, but it makes sense
Komentarz:
d) 9:06 PM ET, no it doesn't make sense
Komentarz:
e) I don't have evidence it stays above the that line
f) I have evidence it "channels" underneath...
g) so no change to base case...
h) it's still 10:30?
f) I have evidence it "channels" underneath...
g) so no change to base case...
h) it's still 10:30?
Komentarz:
i) that's what it looks like, still 10:30-11:00, closer to 10:30
j) the odds of blue route is expiring soon...
j) the odds of blue route is expiring soon...
Komentarz:
k) now we have to see orange route deliver
Komentarz:
l) I know it looks like it's starting to bounce on 30-sec bars...
m) but that's not evidence bc regressions say it's behind schedule
n) meaning it could checkdown later lower than 1921.. which has been holding since open
m) but that's not evidence bc regressions say it's behind schedule
n) meaning it could checkdown later lower than 1921.. which has been holding since open
Komentarz:
o) if it does infact bottom here... and move up like I said earlier 8:45-9:30 PM above the line
p) that would be simply bc I misjudged the regressions and got lucky with it
q) not bc I actually read it right
p) that would be simply bc I misjudged the regressions and got lucky with it
q) not bc I actually read it right
Komentarz:
r) 9:24 PM ET so now it's orange route vs 3rd route, like this:
Komentarz:
Komentarz:
s) and past noon tomorrow, if orange doesn't play, it's another extrapolation like this:
Komentarz:
t) BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW, orange is favorite
Komentarz:
u) and I had the orange at the wrong spot so it should be like it was before (just replay chart at top):
Komentarz:
v) so I gotta get busy with other things, so before I I get to bed I will do a wrap up for tonight later around 10:45 PM, but let me say this about chart above:
w) so basically if orange route fails to play, gray route is basically going to:
1) move down to the next dashed/dotted trend line, so this one:
w) so basically if orange route fails to play, gray route is basically going to:
1) move down to the next dashed/dotted trend line, so this one:
Komentarz:
Komentarz:
2) then it will "check up" vs resistance line we've been at since Friday
3) maybe once, or twice, or three, or four times,
4) then fail
5) then move to next dashed trend lin underneath...
6) that is basically gray route for ALL OF MONDAY
3) maybe once, or twice, or three, or four times,
4) then fail
5) then move to next dashed trend lin underneath...
6) that is basically gray route for ALL OF MONDAY
Komentarz:
7) as of this moment RIGHT NOW that's all that can be said about price action
8) orange route is still dominant favorite until 11:15 PM ET and it's 9:42 PM right now
8) orange route is still dominant favorite until 11:15 PM ET and it's 9:42 PM right now
Komentarz:
9) so if we move to 1918, 17, 16 in the next 30-45 minutes
10) orange route would still be the favorite (just not as dominant)
11) does that signal a return to blue route?
12) it SHOULD NOT, bc it's too late
13) AND BC IT'S TOO LATE, the attitude towards blue route is now:
14) "show me 1915-1916 for 10 minutes running first, prove it, then I"ll speculate"
10) orange route would still be the favorite (just not as dominant)
11) does that signal a return to blue route?
12) it SHOULD NOT, bc it's too late
13) AND BC IT'S TOO LATE, the attitude towards blue route is now:
14) "show me 1915-1916 for 10 minutes running first, prove it, then I"ll speculate"
Komentarz:
15) at 9:49 pm and 1921.xx a thorough line by line regression break down says...
16) orange route still favorite.. but not as dominant as I thought ...
17) I had thought 8-2 or 7-3 but it's less than 7-3 but more than 6-4
18) how do I get those numbers?
19) I split IRL to 10 different ratio'ed sets and 6 of them favor orange route, 3 favors gray route
20) the last one leans orange.. so more than 65%, so 2:1 right now is fair
21) but it staying under 1921 (and it is now 1920.68 as I type)....
16) orange route still favorite.. but not as dominant as I thought ...
17) I had thought 8-2 or 7-3 but it's less than 7-3 but more than 6-4
18) how do I get those numbers?
19) I split IRL to 10 different ratio'ed sets and 6 of them favor orange route, 3 favors gray route
20) the last one leans orange.. so more than 65%, so 2:1 right now is fair
21) but it staying under 1921 (and it is now 1920.68 as I type)....
Komentarz:
22) past 10:30 PM will soon make it a conditional favorite...
23) again that means it better move or it's over
23) again that means it better move or it's over
Komentarz:
24) if you replay chart right now at top 9:55 PM, I don't have a reason to doubt orange not playing out but I DO and why?
25) bc 30 min ago the 10 ratios still orange route dominant close to 8-2 that's 4:1
26) now it's 2:1 (that's cut in half or am I wrong?)
27) no I'm right...
28) but remember, the only way to be right continuously is to WATCH ALL THE TIME TO CATCH ALL THE MOVES
29) and I gotta go do other things
25) bc 30 min ago the 10 ratios still orange route dominant close to 8-2 that's 4:1
26) now it's 2:1 (that's cut in half or am I wrong?)
27) no I'm right...
28) but remember, the only way to be right continuously is to WATCH ALL THE TIME TO CATCH ALL THE MOVES
29) and I gotta go do other things
Komentarz:
30) W/O KNOWING WHAT THINGS WILL LOOK LIKE IN 30-45 MIN...
31) my strategy would be wait for 1916.5-1917.5 and buy there, but a HARD STOP AT 1915.5 and trail it up gradually
32) but just saying doesn't really mean much why?
33) I don't know if it will actually hit that low, I am just guessing
34) an educated guess, sure
35) sometimes, it's the same as a random guess
31) my strategy would be wait for 1916.5-1917.5 and buy there, but a HARD STOP AT 1915.5 and trail it up gradually
32) but just saying doesn't really mean much why?
33) I don't know if it will actually hit that low, I am just guessing
34) an educated guess, sure
35) sometimes, it's the same as a random guess
Komentarz:
36) for people who just started following my notes
37) please be aware, that the all the things that have gone wrong since 9/12 when we do this all the time...
38) always happened when I wasn't watching...
39) bc I couldn't give any warning of divergence of price action vs expectations
40) so please be aware, what I can't see, I can't say
41) good luck with it
37) please be aware, that the all the things that have gone wrong since 9/12 when we do this all the time...
38) always happened when I wasn't watching...
39) bc I couldn't give any warning of divergence of price action vs expectations
40) so please be aware, what I can't see, I can't say
41) good luck with it
Komentarz:
11:00 PM ET WRAP UP --
1) so I have a signal that bottom we were waiting for MAY HAVE hit at 10:55 PM ET about 1918.35 on ICE/ICD XAUUSD tickers bid/ask
2) I don't trust what it says right this second
3) I'm still looking
1) so I have a signal that bottom we were waiting for MAY HAVE hit at 10:55 PM ET about 1918.35 on ICE/ICD XAUUSD tickers bid/ask
2) I don't trust what it says right this second
3) I'm still looking
Komentarz:
4) so 11:04 PM ET, we are pretty much at CONDITIONAL FAVORITE...
5) that basically means 5-4-1 for orange vs gray
6) that's not comforting at all
5) that basically means 5-4-1 for orange vs gray
6) that's not comforting at all
Komentarz:
7) the problem is.. we may not know ANYTHING MORE even 2 hours later
8) regressions say we could be in gray area for another 130-140 minutes
9) so 1:45 AM ET, which will already Monday in ET
10) that's all I got...
11) I can't say more bc I don't know more
12) our base case is still valid
13) just not as valid as it was 90 minutes ago..
14) and I gotta get to bed bc I have too much going this coming week
15) from my feel of things... if you go long now at 1919.05 as I type...
8) regressions say we could be in gray area for another 130-140 minutes
9) so 1:45 AM ET, which will already Monday in ET
10) that's all I got...
11) I can't say more bc I don't know more
12) our base case is still valid
13) just not as valid as it was 90 minutes ago..
14) and I gotta get to bed bc I have too much going this coming week
15) from my feel of things... if you go long now at 1919.05 as I type...
Komentarz:
16) put a HARD STOP AT 1918.00, that's not a terrible move, and you are not risking a lot
17) BUT IF YOU'VE GOT NOTHING TO DO BUT WAIT...
18) and it does fall to to 1916.75, going long there with a 1915.75 stop would be even better
19) BUT BUT BUT..
20) at that point... going short at 1916.75 with a 1917.75 stop would be almost just as strong...
21) I'm sorry there's just not that much value right now...
17) BUT IF YOU'VE GOT NOTHING TO DO BUT WAIT...
18) and it does fall to to 1916.75, going long there with a 1915.75 stop would be even better
19) BUT BUT BUT..
20) at that point... going short at 1916.75 with a 1917.75 stop would be almost just as strong...
21) I'm sorry there's just not that much value right now...
Komentarz:
22) there maybe more in 2-3 hours...
23) but I gotta get to bed
24) as a reminder...
25) if things go weird off the plan, just assume plan is wrong and move on but trade defensively
26) goodnight
27) if I wake up in the middle of then night, I will check in
23) but I gotta get to bed
24) as a reminder...
25) if things go weird off the plan, just assume plan is wrong and move on but trade defensively
26) goodnight
27) if I wake up in the middle of then night, I will check in
Komentarz:
28) my buddy just said if you wanted to short, why not short now instead of waiting for 1916.75... that's true too
29) again, this area for next 2 hours or so is not looking like a great bet either direction
30) sometimes that is what it is...
31) watch the news, if you have conviction, take it with a tight stop
29) again, this area for next 2 hours or so is not looking like a great bet either direction
30) sometimes that is what it is...
31) watch the news, if you have conviction, take it with a tight stop
Komentarz:
32) ok at 11:22 PM it's dead heat 5:5 for 10 sets...
33) your call on this one, I'm going to bed, good luck
33) your call on this one, I'm going to bed, good luck
Komentarz:
12:15 AM ET BACK TO 6:4 for orange route.
Komentarz:
7:51 AM ET 1915.XX gray route it was.
a) replay chart at top
b) my last note last night was orange was back to 6:4
c) but it soon pulled the other way when I went to bed
d) so now what?
a) replay chart at top
b) my last note last night was orange was back to 6:4
c) but it soon pulled the other way when I went to bed
d) so now what?
Komentarz:
e) 8:07 AM ET, regressions back continuation of the gray route
f) but there are two issues I should point out
g) first is that we are still in Mid East war news cycle...
h) so as hard as it was to foresee Friday's price action...
i) such swings to reestablish a trend that was expired and which odds were 19:1 or worse should be meticulously watched out for
j) so eye on the news
f) but there are two issues I should point out
g) first is that we are still in Mid East war news cycle...
h) so as hard as it was to foresee Friday's price action...
i) such swings to reestablish a trend that was expired and which odds were 19:1 or worse should be meticulously watched out for
j) so eye on the news
Komentarz:
k) and a check of of oil chart this morning showed it it went sideways since Sun open
l) not that gold has to follow oil anywhere, it does not even correlate
m) but oil's setup for 94-95 simply moved 12 later, nothing else could be said about it at this time
n) but again, Israel-Gaza-Iran news cycle still dominates price action right no
l) not that gold has to follow oil anywhere, it does not even correlate
m) but oil's setup for 94-95 simply moved 12 later, nothing else could be said about it at this time
n) but again, Israel-Gaza-Iran news cycle still dominates price action right no
Komentarz:
o) now that we eliminated both blue and orange and it's playing gray..
p) we have to consider the gray morphing into red (I noted this halfway up the page)
q so...
p) we have to consider the gray morphing into red (I noted this halfway up the page)
q so...
Komentarz:
r) and LITERALLY AS I WAS TYPING notes in last 10 minutes it did that...
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s) so here is 8-min bars so you can see the trend lines we're watching:
t) add another one running parallel to resistance line FOR THE REST OFF THIS WEEK
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u) that's the bolded one...
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w) so here's my chart w/ one more trend line added, do you need them all
x) well yeah... bc this part is when price decides red or gray
y) and if gray, HOW EXACTLY IT WILL DO GRAY, and generally speaking it follows short /intermediate regressions but WITH RESPECT TO THOSE TREND LINES:
x) well yeah... bc this part is when price decides red or gray
y) and if gray, HOW EXACTLY IT WILL DO GRAY, and generally speaking it follows short /intermediate regressions but WITH RESPECT TO THOSE TREND LINES:
Komentarz:
z) so here's example of 2 ratios out of the 10 that I use (to judge short term direction and hilighted paths)
Komentarz:
1) for chart above:
2) these two say red is winning
3) and out of 10, red is winning 8:2 or better
4) but remember what happened with orange, it was 8:2 last night too
5) so WHILE HAVE HANDICAPS for those routes
6) we also need to be aware of how "odds have been playing overall"
7) or basically the overall 24 hour trend
8) that is all simply saying red is winning on expectations for 6 to 12 hours
9) but gray has the implied 12 to 24 hour trend
2) these two say red is winning
3) and out of 10, red is winning 8:2 or better
4) but remember what happened with orange, it was 8:2 last night too
5) so WHILE HAVE HANDICAPS for those routes
6) we also need to be aware of how "odds have been playing overall"
7) or basically the overall 24 hour trend
8) that is all simply saying red is winning on expectations for 6 to 12 hours
9) but gray has the implied 12 to 24 hour trend
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10) and bc of the number of ways that this can turn out HOUR TO HOUR
11) there's to many extraoplations that are legit to consider them all like:
11) there's to many extraoplations that are legit to consider them all like:
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12) so instead of extrapolating them all, we just do:
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13) the generic 2 paths while we attention to trend lines (this is way more efficient)
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14) to produce hour to hour projections... it would have to be my job, and it's not
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15) but usually .... see how the orange wave in chart right above is "compressed into the gray wave?"
16) that USUALLY means whichever way it goes... it will a lot of this before the break:
16) that USUALLY means whichever way it goes... it will a lot of this before the break:
Komentarz:
17) that's basically all that I got this morning.... will comment more in the after market
18) remember, if price moves against our plans, JUST SCRAP OUR PLANS AND TRADE DEFENSIVELY
19) plus please please please please if my work helps you out a lot, spread the the word for me to people you know by word of mouth
20) it's my only incentive to do it is to build interest of a legit following to make this work into something... and this is is my last, last attempt to do this after so many last attempts
18) remember, if price moves against our plans, JUST SCRAP OUR PLANS AND TRADE DEFENSIVELY
19) plus please please please please if my work helps you out a lot, spread the the word for me to people you know by word of mouth
20) it's my only incentive to do it is to build interest of a legit following to make this work into something... and this is is my last, last attempt to do this after so many last attempts
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21) that most recent chart right above implies the break being after market today...
22) it could be like right after noon ET
22) it could be like right after noon ET
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10:20 AM ET... 1919.XX
1) so red is still 7:3 or better
2) but the odds are reaching a steep curve where ...
3) in order to keep this thing going to 5:5 or 4:6 quickly
4) must trade above 1919 and closer to 1923
5) if it does NOT odds quickly shift to strong gray in 2 to 3 hours setting up for a sharp move to under 1900
1) so red is still 7:3 or better
2) but the odds are reaching a steep curve where ...
3) in order to keep this thing going to 5:5 or 4:6 quickly
4) must trade above 1919 and closer to 1923
5) if it does NOT odds quickly shift to strong gray in 2 to 3 hours setting up for a sharp move to under 1900
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10/16, 10:40 AM ET... so not quite 1900 yet but here's what shaping up now that red vs gray is 6:4 but swinging 4:6 quickly:
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a) so chart above's green route is mapping the hour to hour expectation for gray route
b) but please understand that at this point in time...
c) THE RAW NUMBERS SAY GRAY IS A STILL AN UNDERDOG TO RED
d) with that said.. we should that trend line in obvious fashion around noon ET
e) get to 1900-1905 around 2PM ET
f) get a bounce to 1910-1915 by 5PM ET... but this is where there's a skipped hour ...
g) so it could 4PM ET or 7 Pm et...
h) when it bounces will determine how quickly the last two boxes get hit
i) could be 9PM and 11PM or
j) could be 11 PM and 3 AM..
k) chart above assumes everything moving w/ not hiccups
l) AND THERE ARE ALWAYS HICCUPS.. you just gotta catch them in time
b) but please understand that at this point in time...
c) THE RAW NUMBERS SAY GRAY IS A STILL AN UNDERDOG TO RED
d) with that said.. we should that trend line in obvious fashion around noon ET
e) get to 1900-1905 around 2PM ET
f) get a bounce to 1910-1915 by 5PM ET... but this is where there's a skipped hour ...
g) so it could 4PM ET or 7 Pm et...
h) when it bounces will determine how quickly the last two boxes get hit
i) could be 9PM and 11PM or
j) could be 11 PM and 3 AM..
k) chart above assumes everything moving w/ not hiccups
l) AND THERE ARE ALWAYS HICCUPS.. you just gotta catch them in time
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m) the hiccup for green route should be WHEN DOES IT MOVE UNDER 1895?
n) this chart assumes THE VERY FIRST OPPORTUNITY...
o) and I've been thinking about that methodology...
p) bc regression based theory always assumes first opportunity... so that can't be right...
q) but based on position... you are not supposed to forecast a second opportunity until it makes itself visible...
r) so here on out I will include a note at the start of each post to make you aware of that...
s) bc that seems like the best approach
n) this chart assumes THE VERY FIRST OPPORTUNITY...
o) and I've been thinking about that methodology...
p) bc regression based theory always assumes first opportunity... so that can't be right...
q) but based on position... you are not supposed to forecast a second opportunity until it makes itself visible...
r) so here on out I will include a note at the start of each post to make you aware of that...
s) bc that seems like the best approach
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t) all that is just saying that at this point, when gray is still under dog to red
u) you don't know that it does grays' first extrapolation which is green OR
v) it's second extrapolation, maroon like this:
u) you don't know that it does grays' first extrapolation which is green OR
v) it's second extrapolation, maroon like this:
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w) at 10:53 AM ET red is still 5:4:1 vs gray
x) meaning that it's 5:4, the last set is roughly a tie..
x) meaning that it's 5:4, the last set is roughly a tie..
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y) 11:23 AM ET... just saw 1921.xx swinging back close to 7:3 red but these moments have a tendency to do that...
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a) if you replay chart at top, at this very second it looks like it's playing gray
b) but when I made this chart red was not yet an option
c) so now:
b) but when I made this chart red was not yet an option
c) so now:
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d) remember, this entire stretch... blue went down, orange went down, since then...
e) red has yet to be an underdog to gray (never even went to 5:5)
f) but we should know within a couple hours, and it should be obvious
e) red has yet to be an underdog to gray (never even went to 5:5)
f) but we should know within a couple hours, and it should be obvious
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g) last night before I went to bed, it swung to orange 6:4 too, just never got past that
h) but the thing about conditional favorites is that THEY USUALLY LOSE IF THEY SPEND TOO LONG SIDEWAYS
h) but the thing about conditional favorites is that THEY USUALLY LOSE IF THEY SPEND TOO LONG SIDEWAYS
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i) unlike doing green as gray's first route with more clarity..
j) I can't do that for red.. bc there's so much room for error
k) meaning I can do it... but odds of that bull extrapolation being the right extrapolation hour to hour is much lower in this situation
l) I woudn't have confidence of it more than 15-30 min at a time...
m) sometimes it gets very clear closer closer to the break... just don't have enough time to do that for you
j) I can't do that for red.. bc there's so much room for error
k) meaning I can do it... but odds of that bull extrapolation being the right extrapolation hour to hour is much lower in this situation
l) I woudn't have confidence of it more than 15-30 min at a time...
m) sometimes it gets very clear closer closer to the break... just don't have enough time to do that for you
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n) so the 3 major variations of red route would be like this, so just be aware:
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o) the annoying part in moments like these... is a 10pt swing the other direction in less than 10 minutes changes the odds completely
p) so the correct trade seems to be long AND SHORT 1921.5 with long stop at 1921 and short stop at 1922 (a straddle)
p) so the correct trade seems to be long AND SHORT 1921.5 with long stop at 1921 and short stop at 1922 (a straddle)
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q) but it doesn't work that well bc of the zig zag over and and over so BOTH STOPS GET HIT... you just waste some change...
r) how do you fix that problem??
s) you have to 5-sec and 10 sec bars (bc too much happens in just 1 minute)
r) how do you fix that problem??
s) you have to 5-sec and 10 sec bars (bc too much happens in just 1 minute)
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t) so I'm tapping out until later tonight... it looks pretty favorable to red move here
u) but if long keep a strong stop go prevent the out of nowhere "swing rug pull" ...
v) or that 10 pt swing in less than 10 minutes...
u) but if long keep a strong stop go prevent the out of nowhere "swing rug pull" ...
v) or that 10 pt swing in less than 10 minutes...
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w) in the case that it does... green route will shift right about 2-3 hours .
x) meaning those targets are still valid but those times in those 4 boxes noted earlier need an extra 120 to 150 minutes
y) understand that all this shifts continuously
x) meaning those targets are still valid but those times in those 4 boxes noted earlier need an extra 120 to 150 minutes
y) understand that all this shifts continuously
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z) regressions say something should give soon, fight now still close to 2:1 red vs green
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1) in chart above: green has shifted right 2-3 hours
2) mean while the multiple extrapolations of red have merged back into 1
2) mean while the multiple extrapolations of red have merged back into 1
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3) you know I read some of the gold analysts and forecasts on tradingview that gets featured a lot... 98% give you nothing... just tells you in simple terms what's happening
4) most of it is junk... and yet they get featured so much it is sick...
5) sick sick sick sick.... sigh
4) most of it is junk... and yet they get featured so much it is sick...
5) sick sick sick sick.... sigh
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6) 12:09 PM ET, 1920.81, red:green back to 6:4, bulls are hesitating way too long here
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7) 12:12 PM ET, 1920.53, bears have that window in next 35-min or so to "surprise rug pull 10pts)...
8) that does not mean that it's favored to happen... that just means that if it were to....
9) it should happen in 35-40 minutes... and if doesn't? well that depends on the exact wave structure at that time
10) so "doesn't" here means just moving to 1922-23 or
11) doesn't here means moving to 1918 and stall or
12) or doesn't her means moving to 1918 and swing hard back up...
13) all this you have to go to 15 second bars or less to read...
14) and they are about reliable AF
8) that does not mean that it's favored to happen... that just means that if it were to....
9) it should happen in 35-40 minutes... and if doesn't? well that depends on the exact wave structure at that time
10) so "doesn't" here means just moving to 1922-23 or
11) doesn't here means moving to 1918 and stall or
12) or doesn't her means moving to 1918 and swing hard back up...
13) all this you have to go to 15 second bars or less to read...
14) and they are about reliable AF
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15) to be clear about micro bars... 1, 5, 10, 15, 30 second bars..
16) great for risk discipline and day-trades (it's almost impossible without them)
17) useless to forecast with
16) great for risk discipline and day-trades (it's almost impossible without them)
17) useless to forecast with
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2:00 PM red:green at 4:6
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1) for chart above:
2) it "seems like" it should be 3:7, right??? no wrong...
3) it's barely 4:6...
4) I'm calling as I see it...
2) it "seems like" it should be 3:7, right??? no wrong...
3) it's barely 4:6...
4) I'm calling as I see it...
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5) replay chart at top... you can interpret this move one of two ways...
a) either it has "shifted right an hour or two.. or ...
b) it's that part that goes low... is just not that low
a) either it has "shifted right an hour or two.. or ...
b) it's that part that goes low... is just not that low
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c) my read is that it shifted right...
d) meaning think this dip is still coming in w/in 6-7 hours at most
d) meaning think this dip is still coming in w/in 6-7 hours at most
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e) in chart above:
f) that's the dip I'm talking about
f) that's the dip I'm talking about
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g) more like 2-4 hours
h) I just don't want to jinx it by saying that
h) I just don't want to jinx it by saying that
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i) now that I said it, watch it not happen... (sh... Im said this just now to reverse the jinx)
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3:45 PM ET... Jinx maybe on...
1) ok so when this chart was made, it was intended to serve for 30 hours..
2) looks like we only made 20 hours
3) that's saying that I need to reassess the intermediate trends for updated routes
4) bc I found that when I watch 2, 4, 8-min bars all the time... I get a bit lost
5) and need to regroup w/ intermediate trends
1) ok so when this chart was made, it was intended to serve for 30 hours..
2) looks like we only made 20 hours
3) that's saying that I need to reassess the intermediate trends for updated routes
4) bc I found that when I watch 2, 4, 8-min bars all the time... I get a bit lost
5) and need to regroup w/ intermediate trends
Komentarz:
4:00 PM ET.. AFTER REGROUPING THIS MOVE JUST KEEPS SHIFTING HOURS LATER... only a bit has changed:
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a) every now and then.. the major moves that are extrapolated start to "mirror image at current price
b) so this one of those moments
c) my experience with these moments is that it should break soon...
d) but early in the morning, I said it would break 3 hours ago and here we are still so take that FWIW
e) at some point, Israel news should make splash again
f) that's my feel for the moment, I have nothing else to add
b) so this one of those moments
c) my experience with these moments is that it should break soon...
d) but early in the morning, I said it would break 3 hours ago and here we are still so take that FWIW
e) at some point, Israel news should make splash again
f) that's my feel for the moment, I have nothing else to add
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g) 4:12 PM ET... I do have more to add...
h) but all of it is DEPENDENT ON THIS BREAK and which way this goes
i) so in that sense it's waste of time to discuss it early
h) but all of it is DEPENDENT ON THIS BREAK and which way this goes
i) so in that sense it's waste of time to discuss it early
Komentarz:
j) meanwhile in oil futures:
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k) oil is showing weakness as it has missed its second opportunity to move up massively
l) not a "giant difference" for this setup, but THIS IS THE SECOND TIME IT SHIFTED 12 HOURS LATER
m) that's a huge degree of hesitation in my book
n) but my book also says it's not over... so one day at a time, yeah?
l) not a "giant difference" for this setup, but THIS IS THE SECOND TIME IT SHIFTED 12 HOURS LATER
m) that's a huge degree of hesitation in my book
n) but my book also says it's not over... so one day at a time, yeah?
Komentarz:
4:21 PM, NEWS FLASH... (news to me maybe not to you)
1) HAMAS offers to release hostages if airstrikes stops
2) rumors spread that Israel considering ceasefire, they say it's not true
3) Biden is mulling a visit to Israel to calm things down
4) Putin has spoke to all major players of this situation
5) China's foreign ministry says Israel is overtepping
6) Saudis agree with Blinken to calm things down
7) so it SEEMS LIKE the collective global leadership is SMARTER THAN THEY WERE ahead of WWI and WWII
8) maybe we have learned that 60 million dead helps no one...
9) in that sense, I think green beats red, but it may take hours and hours to work this out
1) HAMAS offers to release hostages if airstrikes stops
2) rumors spread that Israel considering ceasefire, they say it's not true
3) Biden is mulling a visit to Israel to calm things down
4) Putin has spoke to all major players of this situation
5) China's foreign ministry says Israel is overtepping
6) Saudis agree with Blinken to calm things down
7) so it SEEMS LIKE the collective global leadership is SMARTER THAN THEY WERE ahead of WWI and WWII
8) maybe we have learned that 60 million dead helps no one...
9) in that sense, I think green beats red, but it may take hours and hours to work this out
Komentarz:
8:39 PM ET idc/ice xauusd bid hit 1914.04
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a) hesitant bears need to man up and push to 1910
b) nothing to say until I see 1910 amd reaction to 1910
c) which sets up 1903-1905
b) nothing to say until I see 1910 amd reaction to 1910
c) which sets up 1903-1905
Komentarz:
d) even though bulls committed several turnovers...
e) bears have yet to make impression on short and intermediate curves
e) bears have yet to make impression on short and intermediate curves
Komentarz:
f) and that would be 9 under 1907.5 low this way early this AM, so 1898-99
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10/17, 12:00 AM ET, 1917 FROM 1911.XX BID -- THIS POST HAS ENDED, THERE IS NO NEW POST RIGHT NOW.
a) all the short term hour to hour stuff looks ugly right now
b) first interpretation is very annoying and unpredictable zig zag for some time
c) I'm going going to end this post here bc I don't have enough time to make something useful...
d) and honestly, I don't know when I will next ...
e) have a good one
a) all the short term hour to hour stuff looks ugly right now
b) first interpretation is very annoying and unpredictable zig zag for some time
c) I'm going going to end this post here bc I don't have enough time to make something useful...
d) and honestly, I don't know when I will next ...
e) have a good one
Komentarz:
f) FWIW, I can't see this line breaking for next 9 hours, or until 9 AM ET:
g) I don't think it breaks soon after that either
h) I have no technical reason why it should break soon
h) I have no technical reason why it should break soon
Komentarz:
i) and I'm not going to watch it to find out either
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j) before I wrap this up, I will say this
k) there is a setup for a "surprise spike down"
l) but it's not something you can "forecast" bc it's not in the trends, hence it's a "surprise"
m) I only say this bc I've seen this setup a few times, but there's no rhyme or reason
n) it's something that has to be watched hour to hour to catch it 10-20 min before it happens
o) so that's a wrap
k) there is a setup for a "surprise spike down"
l) but it's not something you can "forecast" bc it's not in the trends, hence it's a "surprise"
m) I only say this bc I've seen this setup a few times, but there's no rhyme or reason
n) it's something that has to be watched hour to hour to catch it 10-20 min before it happens
o) so that's a wrap
Komentarz:
10/17 5:09 AM ET NOTES FOR NEXT POST
a) so first here's that line that I said wouldn't break:
a) so first here's that line that I said wouldn't break:
Komentarz:
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b) and it hasn't broken
c) so I just woke up for 14 min and put this together so you would have something to go by today while I drive to Houston Texas for 12 hours straight
d) so this hasn't been "thoroughly vetted" but something is better than nothing
e) so just take it with a side of salt ok?
c) so I just woke up for 14 min and put this together so you would have something to go by today while I drive to Houston Texas for 12 hours straight
d) so this hasn't been "thoroughly vetted" but something is better than nothing
e) so just take it with a side of salt ok?
Komentarz:
f) first I added these lines and got this:
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g) so here is what we are working with today:
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h) in chart above: orange path is base case
i) blue path is implied momentum
j) gray path is when orange breaks down
i) blue path is implied momentum
j) gray path is when orange breaks down
Komentarz:
k) SO THIS POST IS ALL DONE: HERE IS NEXT ONE:
1) so I don't "wing this"
2) and if you take trading seriously, you shouldn't either
3) so in that spirit, you should read the notes I posted in previous post
4) but specifically so you would not be caught off guard or unaware of something I already brought
5) when live in high vol moments, there's no time to explain, and I won't explain
6) about chart at top, same 4 lines as our trading basis where I left off last
7) I kept a 5th line faded at the bottom
8) I generalized 2 of the 4 scenarios into 3 scenarios
9) the orange one is now base case
10) if you want to know how or why, READ the previous notes