Using HIGH IMPACT NEWS as a confluence (update)

I could be dead wrong with what I'm about to say but trying to take a short even at 1800 doesn't match up with the rate hike next week.

Tomorrow's JOBS # is the final piece of the puzzle; we'll know what's going on once the dust settles.

But if the criteria (see image) is met, I'm definitely interested in going long into next Wednesday (FOMC).

Komentarz:

How I'm making sense of today:
Jobs data is really just going sideways ... key take away is that the job market is not worsening which marginally increases the odds of a 50bp hike in February
Next Thursday's jobs data is now the focus... I still think we could rally into Wednesday (FOMC) before the larger selloff begins

Komentarz:

Fundamentals are paving the path higher at the moment; expecting price to gradually move towards higher lvls from here going into Wednesday's FOMC

Komentarz:

Short idea proved to be valid on the back of inflation print, which I believe is not that relevant. The Fed is focused on Jobs more than CPI, PPI etc.

If price stabilizes today (likely will), expecting the market to offer 1825 again as a wick hunt and then for XAU to roll over.

Komentarz:

Potential trade idea for tomorrow (the key is Powell's press conference)

NOTE: If tomorrow is a surprise 25bp hike or if Powell is excessively dovish this trade is invalid as XAU will likely shoot higher on the back of these developments.

Komentarz:

ECB and the Fed are worried about services inflation - especially after initial claims were WAY lower than expected; forcing them to remain Hawkish

Which means lower XAU price to come

Komentarz:

This trade should ideally be a TUESDAY event based on fundamentals; if the data comes out a particular way the trade will be less valid.

Komentarz:

as long as price doesn't melt overnight, we should be good to go for tomorrow's short