XAUUSD: 6/10, super data day is coming

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the latest week was 207,000, the lowest level in a year. Ohio and Alabama saw the largest declines in jobless claims, while claims rose in California. The monthly jobs report due out on Friday will provide more information on the job market. Economists expect nonfarm payroll growth to slow but remain healthy. U.S. bond yields surged to multi-year highs, driving wild market volatility. Friday's NFP and next week's inflation data will determine whether the 10-year Treasury yield rises to 5% or falls to 4.5%.

Traders see a roughly 37% chance the Fed will raise interest rates again this year, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, as this increases the opportunity cost of holding gold. As the end of the year approaches, we do think gold prices will appreciate next year, and we think the Fed will cut interest rates more than the market currently expects. Investors will look forward to Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show the labor force fell to 170,000 from 187,000. A failure to live up to the headline number could give gold prices some much-needed boost on the charts, while a "fail" scenario could see prices continue to fall.

Today is a super data day. There is no strategy suggestion. Let’s wait for DXY to give direction first. If DXY is still in the range of 107.69~105.648, it means that gold will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. Wait for today's NFP announcement and observe the DXY trend. If you trade gold, it is recommended to start next week.

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