Oil - $105 the new $75

27 wrz 2021

Oil continues it's upwards trajectory.

Oil is approaching the yearly highs and about to retest the 2018 high (76.88).

If we break above this level I believe we will reach $100-105ish level (seen in 2011-2014) in the not-so-distant future.

Daily timeframe view below - broken out of the daily descending channel with strong momentum and indicators reset of the daily timeframe - see previous idea

26 sty 2022

Uwaga

Oil update:

On weekly TF - oil has formed a large megaphone pattern with bearish divergence on the last 3 peaks in 2021 - the bear div & pattern currently remains valid on this last peak with a potential move up to $92-96 area

We may see a correction there - i.e. before reaching $100 per barrel



Daily chart -

4hr chart & micro structures - a channel has formed - following on from the tight up wedge breaking down and bull flag breaking up

8 lut 2022

Uwaga

Update following my comment 2 weeks ago - we have now tagged the top trendline ($93) as I outlined and are starting to pullback:

Weekly TF - looks very similar to 2018 pattern:


Zooming in to Daily TF - today Oil has reached the support of the rising wedge from December-2021 lows:


One to watch in coming weeks - based on TA only there is a possibility this is the beginnings of a larger TF top - however as always with TA there is a chance this pattern invalidates and Crude Oil continues climbing higher eventually reaching my original target of $100-$105 / barrel. Current fundamentals appear to support the latter as Opec has agreed in it's latest meeting (Feb-22) to continue increasing daily oil production

28 lut 2022

Uwaga

Crude oil hit $100 last week (Thursday) following missile strikes on Kyiv, Ukraine's capital



The original target of $105 is not far away however the bearish pattern pointed out previously is also still intact (with price currently still inside the megaphone and weekly RSI bearish divergence still valid). A ceasefire or other geopolitical de-escalations could potentially cause a reversal in oil this week.

One to watch in the coming weeks for sure

1 mar 2022

Transakcja zamknięta: osiągnięto wyznaczony cel

Update 1st March 2022 - Crude Oil hits $105 per barrel:


This weekly candle will be key - if we close the week up here, the weekly megaphone structure will be invalidated (PA has now broken above) and equally the weekly RSI bearish divergence will be invalidated


If we do close up here for the week and if geopolitical tensions in Ukraine/Russia continue to escalate who knows how much higher Oil will go...