Turning Point? dla FX:USOIL przez wsbza

Turning Point?

It might be bit early to call the end of bullish rally since late December 2018. But we could certainly have a count that shows wave (C) of {B} has reached it's peak.

Uwaga

But the above count does not necessarily mean the start of the multi months bear market, here is an alternative count

Uwaga

possible Long-term wave count

Uwaga

Divergence between RSI & Price, but price is still trading above the blue up trend line

Uwaga

short-term count

Uwaga

any push above 64.72 would argue either wave 4 or wave 5 is under way

Uwaga

break below the blue wave {i} low at 60.04 would indicate wave {iii} decline is under way

Uwaga

there are two possible bearish counts: either 1-2 or 1-2 plus {i}-{ii}

Uwaga

The '1-2' scenario also has two possible counts
flat {b} of 2

triangle {b} of 2

Uwaga

break below 62.09 ( end of wave (i) of {c} of 2) would indicate blue wave {c} is done

Uwaga

The '1-2 plus {i}-{ii}' scenario

Uwaga

also notice that price has failed number of times to climb back above the uptrend line

Uwaga

Therefore I think it's less likely to see another wave 5 of (C). A solid close below $60.02 (6 May low) would confirm the above bearish counts.

Uwaga

is wave 3 ready to explode?

Uwaga

Short-term count

Uwaga

daily chart

Uwaga

we could also assume the 1-2 is one degree higher and count the structure as follows

Uwaga

possible short-term counts:
either

Uwaga

alternative count

Uwaga

wave {iv} under way?

Uwaga

wave (iv) could be a triangle

Uwaga

possible short-term counts:
wave 3 done ( or if 1-2 = (1)-(2), then 3 = 1 of (3) )

Uwaga

or wave (i)-(ii) of {v}

Uwaga

immediate break above end of wave {iv} at $53.36 would eliminate the above (i)-(ii) scenario

Uwaga

wave 4 or wave 2 of (3)

Uwaga

triangle

or flat?

Uwaga

triangle

or flat

Uwaga

{a}-{b}-{c} flat with a diagonal wave {c}?

Uwaga

or an impulse wave {c}

Uwaga

possible short-term count

Uwaga

possible short-term count

Uwaga

either way

Uwaga

let's see if guppy ema could trigger the bearish signal

Uwaga

a solid close below wave (iv) low at $57.73 would also argue wave 2 has reached it's peak

Uwaga

break below wave {a}(of 2) high at $54.80 would confirm the above bearish count

Uwaga

possible short-term count

Uwaga

key resistance at $58.32 as wave iv should not breach the end of wave i

Uwaga

possible short-term counts

Uwaga

note the rally from recent low at 56.03 is contained within a parallel channel

Uwaga

triple zigzag?

Uwaga

Need to see an impulsive decline to break below the end of wave x at 57.30

Uwaga

alternative count

Uwaga

possible short-term count

Uwaga

possible short-term count

Uwaga

either pink A-B-C complete (Y) or grey (1)-(2) then {i}-{ii}

Uwaga

Note on 11 July, i assumed the following two scenarios:
Bullish A-B-C for wave (Y)

Bearish (1)-(2)

Uwaga

the bullish count is no longer valid, simply because wave B of a zigzag can never move beyond the start of wave A

Uwaga

possible short term counts

Uwaga

bearish green {i}-{ii}-(i)-(ii)
OR
bullish grey A-B-C flat for wave (2)

Uwaga

no change

Uwaga

Complex flat for wave (2)

Simple flat for wave (2)

Uwaga

OR even a more complex correction for wave (2) , e.g. double three combination where wave Y is a triangle

Uwaga

Flat

or Combination

Uwaga

there are some bullish possibilities

Uwaga

medium term expectations

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space

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wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space