recession fears enveloped Bearish, not chasing down

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During the Asia-Europe session on Thursday (April 27), U.S. crude oil fluctuated narrowly near the April low. It is currently trading near US774.53/barrel. Overnight, U.S. core durable goods orders fell more than expected, indicating that corporate equipment spending may still drag down economic growth in the first quarter, and the First Republic Bank continued to fall sharply, which also exacerbated concerns about the banking crisis. U.S. stocks fell to a new low in the past four weeks, which also suppressed oil prices.GDP data will show that the US economic growth rate is slowing, and oil prices are facing further downside risks.


snapshot The trend analyzed for everyone last time is in line with expectations


On the technical side, oil prices lost the 100-day moving average and the 55-day moving average, and the bearish signal in the future market has strengthened.However, the dollar index is also dragged down by economic data and other factors, and its overall performance is relatively weak, which may slightly limit the short-term downside of oil prices.


Daily line level: Oscillating and falling; oil prices have continuously lost the 100-day moving average and 55-day moving average that are close to the horizontal operation, and have filled the gap in early April. Short-term and mid-term bearish signals have been strengthened. The MACD dead fork is operating well, and the KDJ dead fork is operating. The short-term may try to explore the support near the Bollinger band track 73.47. At present, the Bollinger band closes, and if the support is broken, the short-term bearish signal will be increased; further support is near the low of 72.60 on March 30, and the high of March 22 is supported at Near 71.29.

Oil prices have fallen significantly in the past two trading days. If oil prices can hold the support near the Bollinger band track of 73.47, you need to beware of the possibility of oil prices bottoming out or relatively low volatility adjustment. The high of 75.69 on March 31 has been transformed into preliminary resistance. The resistance of the 55-day moving average is near 76.32, and the resistance of the 100-day moving average is near 76.71. This position needs to be recovered in order to reverse the bearish signal in the future.


Short-term operation recommendations: short on dips, be cautious and short on dips.

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