The pair is currently dancing with the 50-day MA rate of 18.97, which is a critical rate to watch. A failed break back above the 50-day MA will allow the rand to pull the pair below 18.80 with a possible move lower towards the 200-day MA rate of 18.43. A break above the 50-day MA will however signal another leg higher towards 19.90 for the pair. It’s too early to make a call now but the strength of the current upward channel seems to be fading which is, dare I say it, rand positive.
The break below 19.12 is also rand positive as it invalidates the 5-wave impulse.
The break below 19.12 is also rand positive as it invalidates the 5-wave impulse.
With US 10 year yields steam rolling towards 5% and a steady DXY, I don't see much room for continued rand strength.