The USDJPY has changed, having been essentially flat and choppy for the last 12 months it now looks to be taking on a bearish outlook. This can be seen as a combination of the price action, the dropping economic performance as measured in the surprise index and the Trump administrations seeming failure to get anything done. Debt ceiling talks are approaching, tax reform seems like a distant dream and health care is just a mess, eventually this will take a toll and I think now is eventually.
If the USDJPY moves from a sideways to a negative stance that has significant impact on my market model, it makes it very difficult for any of the yen pairs to make progress that in turn causes the Indicies to fall (perhaps 10 or 15%) and puts pressure on the European currencies. Of course the depth of the USDJPY drop is debatable, I think with one more upward correction due it is heading to 104 and may break the invalidation level at 94, if it does then I do not know where the bottom lies.
If the USDJPY moves from a sideways to a negative stance that has significant impact on my market model, it makes it very difficult for any of the yen pairs to make progress that in turn causes the Indicies to fall (perhaps 10 or 15%) and puts pressure on the European currencies. Of course the depth of the USDJPY drop is debatable, I think with one more upward correction due it is heading to 104 and may break the invalidation level at 94, if it does then I do not know where the bottom lies.