1) Due to the zig-zag nature of the yield values, historically, it seems proper to use Elliott-waves.
2) There was a rate-hike environment in the past which seems similar to the current price action. Coincidentally the wave 5 drop corresponds to the year 2020; 2020 is the year many talking heads are calling for a US recession.
3) In recent years bonds and stocks have rallied in tandem, however, which means a recession isn't necessarily the only way to arrive at the 5th wave. A powerful US economy and continuation of recent co-variance could also push yields lower.
4) I do not believe the well-establish downward trend will be broken, and lower yields are likely to exist post 2020.
2) There was a rate-hike environment in the past which seems similar to the current price action. Coincidentally the wave 5 drop corresponds to the year 2020; 2020 is the year many talking heads are calling for a US recession.
3) In recent years bonds and stocks have rallied in tandem, however, which means a recession isn't necessarily the only way to arrive at the 5th wave. A powerful US economy and continuation of recent co-variance could also push yields lower.
4) I do not believe the well-establish downward trend will be broken, and lower yields are likely to exist post 2020.