US 10Y TREASURY: expected economic outlook

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Investors continue to weigh the US economic outlook for the year 2025, and adjust their positions accordingly. Although there has not been significant US macro data released during the previous week, still, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report for December showed that the US manufacturing remained under pressure. Also, weekly jobs data missed the investors’ expectations. The market reacted with further decrease of the price of the US Treasuries, increasing the 10Y benchmark yield to the highest weekly level of 4,62%. Still, they have ended the week at 4,60%.

In a week ahead, the US non-farm payroll data are set for a release. This might bring further volatility to the market, and a reaction in modestly higher 10Y yields. The higher volatility might continue through the month, prior to the January FOMC meeting, scheduled for January 28-29th.

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