Cycle Heatmap

Gm, the cycle heatmap says we are still early.

This idea is purely based on the 4 year boom and bust cycle theory.
We expect btc to bottom about 1 year before the halving and top at least 6 months but probably 9-18 months after the halving. So I adapt this theory to the total market cap and estimate a conservative 50% btc dominance to get an idea of the total crypto market cap targets of this new cycle.
We can also combine different cycle based models to create a heatmap.

- 140k BTC target as minimum conservative target
- 10x total target
- 1M BTC target
- trololol log regression aasasoft.org/investi.../models/trololo.html
- log log price chart price.bublina.eu.org/loglog
- stock to flow www.lookintobitcoin....stock-to-flow-model/
- halving en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

This allows us to track where we are in the big picture and identify mean reversion risks.

#dubious #speculation

Komentarz:

zoomed in

Komentarz:

Dip into the green area. If we believe in the cycle theory and that altcoins will move together with BTC, dips into this region could be a good long term entry. The lower it goes, the lower the risk of entering buy and hold positions.

Komentarz:

total market cap now deep in green region, means total cap is around the price it should be for btc 140k end of cycle target

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dipped into the green region today where risk might be pretty low to enter spot positions.