TLT Decade Low

TLT has been a popular short trade as the Fed has committed to raising rates throughout 2022-2023 and causing pain in markets. Today, we are starting to approach some extremely critical support zones towards the 2008 recession price point.

I have been considering 2 buy in zones at $88 and potentially a capitulation to $82 (if it even gets that low).

We are still waiting to hear from Powell in regards to further rate hikes, and the market is currently expecting one more hike with no real major cuts for 2024.

I will be looking out for the following statement during the next FOMC:

Powell decides to raise one more time according to the Dot Plot, however state that the comity has reached their goal of sufficiently restrictive territory with no more further rate hikes.

However, he will be adamant that rates will remain higher for longer, and the Fed will monitor live data to make future decisions.

This may be the mark of the bottom for TLT where I will start accumulating.

Zlecenie aktywne:

Komentarz:

This might be an extreme idea, but there may still be potential for yields to continue rising if we have economic uncertainty forcing powell to keep rates "higher for longer".

Ive created a fib retracement with the CC golden pocket as a guideline from where support and resistance can be found, and which may show us the bottom of yields if we break the low.

Komentarz:

Snipe the low

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