Daily SPY Commentary - Will Bears follow thru?
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Happy Monday. Last week we had a very nice wedge formation that broke down and has become a descending triangle. This week seems set to either confirm or reverse a nice descending triangle in formation.
How it looks right now:
1) Interesting time Pattern around daily 200SMA
- 26 May the market broke the 200SMA up, 11 June there was a retest of the line. It came up short, which meant the bulls were not ready to let it go.
- Now at 26 June, there's a clean close under the 200SMA, bulls were not able to float the market above.
5/26/2020 - 6/11/2020 :: 16 Days :: 8.21% peak, 13 Days
6/11/2020 -6/26/2020 :: 15 Days :: 4.11% peak, 5 days
6/26/2020 - 7/10/2020 :: 14 Days :: 2.01% peak (305.45) , 3 days (?)
- I think it is possible we see one more bounce over 2 weeks before a bigger rollover into the 200 SMA. This is all theory though, but it is a pattern that can be noticed.
2) Descending Wedge formation
- This formation occurred after a wedge break on the 26th. Descending wedges are generally made after continual pushing downward. Imagine a ball bouncing, bouncing less and less high, until it stops.
3) 200SMA Support break
- Closing a daily below the 200 SMA is a big win for the bears. Whats really important is, will they follow thru?
4) Unfilled gaps
- 3 gaps to the north side
310.51-311.61
315.64-317.16
325.85-332.58
- 2 gaps on the south side
296.69-295.63
291.75-286.28
5) Confluence of indicators
- Crossed BB 3 days ago. Have yet to under the deviation line
- Daily MACD is still down on rising strength
- Klinger (volume & price) crossed the Zero line 23 June and are on a down slope.
- Under 20 SMA since 24 June, closed under 200 SMA 26 June
So what to make of all this?
Bull case
1) Get above the 200 SMA. 301.27
2) Start closing 15min above 302.52, then hourly above 304.87
3) Ride back up to the 20SMA. 310.45
Resistance levels
(Pre-Market) 302.68
302.52
304.87
305
307.5
308.08
Bear case
1) Start closing 15min below 301.85, then hourly below 301.45
2) Keep closing under 300
4) Get to a heavy support level of 296.26
Support levels
(Pre-Market) 301.25
301.85
301.45
300
297.5
If this helps you like and follow the chart all day. Ill be giving updates as they show up! Getting feedback helps a lot. Thanks for taking the time to read. Good luck out there traders!
Happy Monday. Last week we had a very nice wedge formation that broke down and has become a descending triangle. This week seems set to either confirm or reverse a nice descending triangle in formation.
How it looks right now:
1) Interesting time Pattern around daily 200SMA
- 26 May the market broke the 200SMA up, 11 June there was a retest of the line. It came up short, which meant the bulls were not ready to let it go.
- Now at 26 June, there's a clean close under the 200SMA, bulls were not able to float the market above.
5/26/2020 - 6/11/2020 :: 16 Days :: 8.21% peak, 13 Days
6/11/2020 -6/26/2020 :: 15 Days :: 4.11% peak, 5 days
6/26/2020 - 7/10/2020 :: 14 Days :: 2.01% peak (305.45) , 3 days (?)
- I think it is possible we see one more bounce over 2 weeks before a bigger rollover into the 200 SMA. This is all theory though, but it is a pattern that can be noticed.
2) Descending Wedge formation
- This formation occurred after a wedge break on the 26th. Descending wedges are generally made after continual pushing downward. Imagine a ball bouncing, bouncing less and less high, until it stops.
3) 200SMA Support break
- Closing a daily below the 200 SMA is a big win for the bears. Whats really important is, will they follow thru?
4) Unfilled gaps
- 3 gaps to the north side
310.51-311.61
315.64-317.16
325.85-332.58
- 2 gaps on the south side
296.69-295.63
291.75-286.28
5) Confluence of indicators
- Crossed BB 3 days ago. Have yet to under the deviation line
- Daily MACD is still down on rising strength
- Klinger (volume & price) crossed the Zero line 23 June and are on a down slope.
- Under 20 SMA since 24 June, closed under 200 SMA 26 June
So what to make of all this?
Bull case
1) Get above the 200 SMA. 301.27
2) Start closing 15min above 302.52, then hourly above 304.87
3) Ride back up to the 20SMA. 310.45
Resistance levels
(Pre-Market) 302.68
302.52
304.87
305
307.5
308.08
Bear case
1) Start closing 15min below 301.85, then hourly below 301.45
2) Keep closing under 300
4) Get to a heavy support level of 296.26
Support levels
(Pre-Market) 301.25
301.85
301.45
300
297.5
If this helps you like and follow the chart all day. Ill be giving updates as they show up! Getting feedback helps a lot. Thanks for taking the time to read. Good luck out there traders!
Uwaga
Bulls are gonna try to work up to 302.48 & 304.73Bears are going to try and work down to 300
There should be a pivot of sorts near these spots
Uwaga
Whats under 300 that could be found as support? 299.6 ishUwaga
cutting thru 299 theres a slight support at 298.74Uwaga
under 298.74 is 297.75 and 297.5worth noting that they could be heading to fill the gap at 296.69
lets see what happens
Uwaga
299.3 found support, its a support level from 20 june.Uwaga
Bulls are trying to hold a 5min candle. they got got it up to 299.63Uwaga
There is a bear flag forming around the 299.3 area. The longer they hang out down here, the more likely theyll push lower.Uwaga
looks like bulls want to get above 300 and try to make up some groundif they start closing above 300, theyll need to break thru 300.5 and 301 as follow thru
Uwaga
300.5 looks like a 50% retracement on the bear flag.Uwaga
will the bulls be able to get to the premarket high @ 302.52?if they dont soon, we can expect more downside play.
Uwaga
Bear flag off the table for this morning, Still holding a daily bear flag though. Meanwhile, bulls are trying to hit that 302.5. Whats the next resistance likely after that? 303.05
Uwaga
we have an indecision and almost pin bar (graavestone) doji. This could be a reversal point. lets see.Uwaga
Whats sitting ways here mean? Bulls will want to try and press the 302.5 again.Uwaga
Bulls pressed up to 303.06. Met a little resistance. Chances are theyll want to try to go a little higher. whats likely resistance area? 304.25Uwaga
So bulls couldnt hold over 302.9there a range to play with for the day. 302.9-299.3
Bears will try poking down to see whether the bulls are supporting areas or not.
Uwaga
Bears poke 301.5 and were promptly rejected.bulls have gone ahead and secured 303
they have a bull flag in play.
under normal circumstances, they should push higher. looking back at friday,they really didnt eant to lose 304.25. thatll be the next goal for them.
Uwaga
whats good for the bears? getting under 302.15 and closing candles below it.Uwaga
Slow steady chop shop for the bulls now. They seem poised to go a bit higher from this traders perspective.Uwaga
It seems as though the bulls may be losing steam. But as long as the number is above 302.15, they are likely to go higher.Uwaga
Last 30 mins, anything is possible. Bulls had a decent little run today. checking out the daily they've put in a little hammer/dragonfly candle. Let's see what tomorrow has in store.
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