Take a look at the symmetry of the current corrective expanding triangle wave we've been in since Jan '18. It may not look it, but the channel we've been in for the entire year has been steeper than the late 2017 parabolic melt-up. (Looks the same here due to log scaling)
Only 2 outcomes here in my opinion (well... 2.5): The market will either go on a rampage and continue until the top of the the current channel, or it will reverse and complete the expanded flat pattern mentioned in my previous posts, eventually leading to E which completes the expanding triangle. The 2 horizontal red lines mark where I think short term targets should be as I think we'll get some retracement. I do think there is an outside chance we get a short covering rally to 3090 then reverse creating an epic bull trap... but who knows.
It sounds extreme, but it's not like either of these moves haven't happened before. The move upwards will take on the exact same slope and breadth as the Nov 17 - Jan 18 move and the move downwards measures the same as the Oct 18 selloff.
Ignoring all macro economic factors and fundamentals and speaking from a pure technical analysis perspective, I don't see how anyone can lean bullish here. We are at the top of a classic Elliott triangle pattern with another leg down to go... there are all kinds of bearish divergences on multiple indicators on daily and higher TFs, and the VIX has been building increasingly higher bases and now sits on a double bottom. Friday afternoon was the third time the market has tried to achieve the 3020 level before it broke back below the previous ATH on trade news. If SPY were a stock and the FOMC meeting is its ER, then we are at the point where there is very little room for disappointment.
Ask yourself, if this were a daily or hourly chart, would you be a buyer here?
Only 2 outcomes here in my opinion (well... 2.5): The market will either go on a rampage and continue until the top of the the current channel, or it will reverse and complete the expanded flat pattern mentioned in my previous posts, eventually leading to E which completes the expanding triangle. The 2 horizontal red lines mark where I think short term targets should be as I think we'll get some retracement. I do think there is an outside chance we get a short covering rally to 3090 then reverse creating an epic bull trap... but who knows.
It sounds extreme, but it's not like either of these moves haven't happened before. The move upwards will take on the exact same slope and breadth as the Nov 17 - Jan 18 move and the move downwards measures the same as the Oct 18 selloff.
Ignoring all macro economic factors and fundamentals and speaking from a pure technical analysis perspective, I don't see how anyone can lean bullish here. We are at the top of a classic Elliott triangle pattern with another leg down to go... there are all kinds of bearish divergences on multiple indicators on daily and higher TFs, and the VIX has been building increasingly higher bases and now sits on a double bottom. Friday afternoon was the third time the market has tried to achieve the 3020 level before it broke back below the previous ATH on trade news. If SPY were a stock and the FOMC meeting is its ER, then we are at the point where there is very little room for disappointment.
Ask yourself, if this were a daily or hourly chart, would you be a buyer here?
