Silver - still no longer term bottom
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Dear traders,
Quite a while back in one of my ideas I've stated that silver could go back all the way to 18 dollars per ounce.
Although it looks like price is bottoming out I beg to differ that we actually have seen a real higher low since this year's rally.
As you can see I make use of the EW theory and so far I was able to find 2 impulse waves (1 and 3) that topped just below 30 dollars.
That means wave 4 a corrective wave should follow with being atleast an ABC pattern. That too happened just according to the EW rules.
HOWEVER, after that ABC pattern was completed the price failed to pass that corrective pattern and the part inside the rectangle does not look like a new impulse.
Therefore I think we will experience a WXY pattern (equal to two ABC patterns) that could bring us all the way back to 17,6 dollars. If price would break below that, the entire impulse from March has officialy ended. I expect to see serious buying though if we come near the 18 dollar range.
Now on the other side of the coin: if my wave count of the rally is wrong and this appears to be either a larger degree 1 wave or maybe even just an A correction, this means we could see either a big 3 wave coming up or just another C leg that would bring us higher. Either way, all the scenarios should expect a new high above 30 dollars. That can bring us to the conclusion that bulls are well in control.
To sum things up:
Short term I expect a lot more downside and I have been shorting since 29 dollars (with good and bad trades.....)
Longer term we may still see a rally towards 32-35 dollars.
As a final note: the reason I made this a 'short idea' is because of the expected down side of 20 to 30%. You are well obliged to see this as a bullish strategy though.
Finally, always use stoplosses to keep your emotions out of the game!
Quite a while back in one of my ideas I've stated that silver could go back all the way to 18 dollars per ounce.
Although it looks like price is bottoming out I beg to differ that we actually have seen a real higher low since this year's rally.
As you can see I make use of the EW theory and so far I was able to find 2 impulse waves (1 and 3) that topped just below 30 dollars.
That means wave 4 a corrective wave should follow with being atleast an ABC pattern. That too happened just according to the EW rules.
HOWEVER, after that ABC pattern was completed the price failed to pass that corrective pattern and the part inside the rectangle does not look like a new impulse.
Therefore I think we will experience a WXY pattern (equal to two ABC patterns) that could bring us all the way back to 17,6 dollars. If price would break below that, the entire impulse from March has officialy ended. I expect to see serious buying though if we come near the 18 dollar range.
Now on the other side of the coin: if my wave count of the rally is wrong and this appears to be either a larger degree 1 wave or maybe even just an A correction, this means we could see either a big 3 wave coming up or just another C leg that would bring us higher. Either way, all the scenarios should expect a new high above 30 dollars. That can bring us to the conclusion that bulls are well in control.
To sum things up:
Short term I expect a lot more downside and I have been shorting since 29 dollars (with good and bad trades.....)
Longer term we may still see a rally towards 32-35 dollars.
As a final note: the reason I made this a 'short idea' is because of the expected down side of 20 to 30%. You are well obliged to see this as a bullish strategy though.
Finally, always use stoplosses to keep your emotions out of the game!
Komentarz
Price bounced right off around the C wave low creating a double bottom. A new indication that we might not see lower prices. A close above the 25,10 resistance should be confirmation that there won't be a larger WXY.That would also mean this entire arc in the red box is a wave 1+2 of the final wave 5 impulse that I discussed in the original post. So currently that would position us in wave 3 of wave 5. Though I'm still not convinced.. therefore: side line.
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