Hello Traders,
NIFTY50 set a new high just after the opening bell @ 10710.50 and reversed sharply to a close @ 10458.45! the a/d-Ratio was @ 0.19 what implies that selling pressure was much stronger than buying interest.
A second observation tells us, that near the 0.38 Fibonacci off the decline (11523.25 – 10138.90) the reversal occurs. This Fibonacci is a common target for a wave 4 reversal (at any degree) and makes the odds high for a wave (v) and new fresh lows below the 10138 zone. The potential down to 99xx-9700 area is persistent. In this case the rally from 10138 – 10710 was an a-b-c countertrend (may took the shape of an “expanding-flat”. If so the pattern has endet and the wave 5 decline is underway.
The second and alternate interpretation is, that a wave (iii) low occurred at 10138 and an a-b-c pattern is next (where wave “a” is done and wave “b” in progress! As before, within a wave “4” correction a triangle is also possible, take the shape of a sideways consolidation.
At last is by the alternate count on a daily basis, wave 4 correction is done or close to do so and the high at 10710 was the kick-off for a run to fresh new ATH`s within the next days and weeks.
A solid close above the 10831 (the 0.5 Fibonacci) makes the odds less probable for the bearish count!
Always be prepared for the unexpected…
Have a great week…
ruebennase
Notice: This analyze can be wrong. Trading this is for your own risk!
Feel free to ask or comment!
NIFTY50 set a new high just after the opening bell @ 10710.50 and reversed sharply to a close @ 10458.45! the a/d-Ratio was @ 0.19 what implies that selling pressure was much stronger than buying interest.
A second observation tells us, that near the 0.38 Fibonacci off the decline (11523.25 – 10138.90) the reversal occurs. This Fibonacci is a common target for a wave 4 reversal (at any degree) and makes the odds high for a wave (v) and new fresh lows below the 10138 zone. The potential down to 99xx-9700 area is persistent. In this case the rally from 10138 – 10710 was an a-b-c countertrend (may took the shape of an “expanding-flat”. If so the pattern has endet and the wave 5 decline is underway.
The second and alternate interpretation is, that a wave (iii) low occurred at 10138 and an a-b-c pattern is next (where wave “a” is done and wave “b” in progress! As before, within a wave “4” correction a triangle is also possible, take the shape of a sideways consolidation.
At last is by the alternate count on a daily basis, wave 4 correction is done or close to do so and the high at 10710 was the kick-off for a run to fresh new ATH`s within the next days and weeks.
A solid close above the 10831 (the 0.5 Fibonacci) makes the odds less probable for the bearish count!
Always be prepared for the unexpected…
Have a great week…
ruebennase
Notice: This analyze can be wrong. Trading this is for your own risk!
Feel free to ask or comment!