MSFT: Bear Market Risk Increases on Chinese Manufacturing News

Microsoft has been under heavy distribution and has begun a risk of top formation. The markets opened with a downside gap this morning due to Chinese markets imploding. This is a high risk factor for a potential bear market catalyst. Any US company that has a high revenue source from China is at risk of serious downside runs during such a crisis and for as long as the Trade Wars between these two nations continue. Sell Shorters will use this gap at open as a level to buy to cover for profits. IF the retail crowd does panic quickly, then it will be a rout.

For now MSFT is at risk of breaking to the downside. The Top formation is a Rounding Top, which is harder for most technical traders to recognize before completion. The support is strong between $86 – 98, which was a trading range from earlier this year. The stronger volume on down weeks and declining Accumulation/Distribution indicator show heavy large-lot selling over the past couple of months. The stock’s bounce risk levels are black lines on this weekly chart.