danielsjc

KOS Long Sim

Long
NYSE:KOS   Kosmos Energy Ltd.
Symbol: KOS
Position: 101 shares
Entry: ~$5.83
Stop-Loss: $5.14 (~11.84%)
Profit Target: $7.81 (33.9%)
Risk/Reward: 2.87:1 | $-Risk: $69
Technicals: RSI divergence on daily chart.
Fundamentals: Reversal, Bounce off 52-Week low, African Rig Count Up

Notes:
• This trade is solely based off RSI Divergence being a correct harbinger of trend reversal. In this case, a reversal of the short term down trend. If we look at the weekly chart, for the last three years we have been in a relative uptrend with price swings of ~$3 or so between peaks. In recent months we can see this price deviation ~$4, which could indicate a slowing of the longer term uptrend (still on weekly chart).
• Since I am using the 52 week low as support along with the Bullish RSI divergence, it made sense to place my stop just below the 52 week low at $5.15.
Risks:
• Unforeseen bearish momentum on exploration and oil could stop me out early. The stock could also stall out and I may never see my price target. This may require tighter trailing stops as time progresses. Must avoid being long for too long as capital may be utilized for more lucrative trades.
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