Some points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event):
1. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) has to start rising before SPX (yellow) drops. Currently UNRATE is declining.
2. The Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) seems to follow the Unemployed Persons Rate (USUP dark blue). USUP just fell so presumably we can expect UNRATE to fall too this month.
3. Continuing Jobless Claims (USCJC red) and Initial Jobless Claims (USIJC light blue) just fell slightly.
4. There are still more job openings than people to fill them (JTSJOL Non-Farm Job Openings minus USCJC US Continuing Jobless Claims)
And just announced today, Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations.
Conclusion is that macro conditions don't foretell a market crash in the immediate future.
Of course that's provided we don't see another slew of bank failures, and that Congress can agree a new debt limit.
1. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) has to start rising before SPX (yellow) drops. Currently UNRATE is declining.
2. The Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) seems to follow the Unemployed Persons Rate (USUP dark blue). USUP just fell so presumably we can expect UNRATE to fall too this month.
3. Continuing Jobless Claims (USCJC red) and Initial Jobless Claims (USIJC light blue) just fell slightly.
4. There are still more job openings than people to fill them (JTSJOL Non-Farm Job Openings minus USCJC US Continuing Jobless Claims)
And just announced today, Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations.
Conclusion is that macro conditions don't foretell a market crash in the immediate future.
Of course that's provided we don't see another slew of bank failures, and that Congress can agree a new debt limit.