Gold rising on Fundamental pressure / #2-Month Resistance intact
Gold's general commentary: The Price-action managed to close above the Daily chart’s Support zone, still giving decent chance to Buyers and so far (throughout Friday’s session) Gold is Trading above it (#1,828.80 - #1,832.80). As discussed on my Friday's commentary, as long as Support values are intact, every rejection near it should be considered as an Intra-day Buying opportunity. The Hourly 4 chart is on a Triangle pattern and needs to recover the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,852.80 as soon as possible in order to revive Gold’s intention to get back into Bullish phase (Bullish sustainability), otherwise Gold will be Pricing a Top soon (temporary or not). However, there is an possibility for aggressive decline on the Hourly 4 chart, which is Technically a strong Bearish formation and brings the Higher Low’s test in consideration, with #1,811.80 as an first Selling extension once the Support cluster breaks. Consulting the Bollinger bands (Daily chart), I’ll only be interested in Buying if upper Line breaks and Price-action Trades above it #5 or more points (#1,852.80) calling for #1,868.80 test on Hourly 4 chart.
Fundamental analysis: Gold was currently Trading on one of the strongest Daily candles since November #2 (not on Daily % change) and the #1,852.80 peak constitutes an ideal Higher High's zone to the emerging Hourly 4 chart's Ascending Channel. This means that the Channel can now put the #1,848.80 first Resistance to test before further upswing. With Daily chart strongly crossed into Overbought values, I maintain my Support cluster as an potential entry point for further Selling. Gold is Trading on Inflated prices and driven by geo-political tensions (Ukraine conflict tensions arising) and Bond Yields on spiral downtrend. Remember when unsure of Gold's direction, look always for the clues on underlying correlations with the strongest instruments. With DX convincingly breaking the Hourly 4 chart's Resistance zone (near Triple Top rejection point) and Bond Yields in particular breaking the Hourly 4 chart's Support zone, Gold's Bearish Medium-term trend on Weekly chart is maintained (as Gold tends to struggle after pricing the ATH's) and on bigger charts (#1W), Gold is still within Descending Channel. Gold still gains value more than DX does, indicating an elemental Volatile trend. The Fundamentals of the Trade tension makes defining Technical entry/exit points extremely difficult as Volatility "shock" candles occur outside of the Technical channels. At this point it is essential to either choose a range to Scalp or take Short-term position (what I will do if Support cluster breaks). I personally remain Bearish under the Daily chart's action of the past several weeks which suggests that Trading will continue to be performed within the Daily chart's Bollinger Bands.
Technical analysis: Hourly 4 chart has taken a pause from the Descending Channel course to form a #1 - #2 session Triangle on Hourly 4 chart, as the absence of the Bullish pressure on Bond Yields (currently rejected on #2-Year High's) causing sideways action. Apart from that, last week's High can be distinguished as a Higher High's Lower zone on the Daily chart, demonstrating that the trend remains Bearish if Higher High's peak rejects the Price-action. The DX did approach the #95.80 Resistance but Gold remained more or less stationary, highlighting the strong Bearish Technical pressure it is under (Gold should be much Higher relative to the circumstances). My focus shifts to the Fundamental events due to the ties with Gold acting as an safe-haven. With Sellers showing limited activity around Higher-timeframe (clash between Technical necessity for Lower Low's extension, and Fundamental Buying pressure), it would also be too much of a risk to contemplate any kind of order at the moment (even though Bond Yields are expected to meet the Hourly 4 chart Resistance in #1-sessions time) when the said Higher-timeframe Support cluster have yet to be convincingly tested. It is important to note that every Support / Resistance rejection may push the Price-action towards the Neutral Rectangle, and it is the question which side of Triangle will break first. #1,852.80 break (and market closing above it) constitutes Bullish sustainability, while I will be ready to Sell Gold on Spot if Support cluster breaks (towards #1,811.80 variance).
Fundamental analysis: Gold was currently Trading on one of the strongest Daily candles since November #2 (not on Daily % change) and the #1,852.80 peak constitutes an ideal Higher High's zone to the emerging Hourly 4 chart's Ascending Channel. This means that the Channel can now put the #1,848.80 first Resistance to test before further upswing. With Daily chart strongly crossed into Overbought values, I maintain my Support cluster as an potential entry point for further Selling. Gold is Trading on Inflated prices and driven by geo-political tensions (Ukraine conflict tensions arising) and Bond Yields on spiral downtrend. Remember when unsure of Gold's direction, look always for the clues on underlying correlations with the strongest instruments. With DX convincingly breaking the Hourly 4 chart's Resistance zone (near Triple Top rejection point) and Bond Yields in particular breaking the Hourly 4 chart's Support zone, Gold's Bearish Medium-term trend on Weekly chart is maintained (as Gold tends to struggle after pricing the ATH's) and on bigger charts (#1W), Gold is still within Descending Channel. Gold still gains value more than DX does, indicating an elemental Volatile trend. The Fundamentals of the Trade tension makes defining Technical entry/exit points extremely difficult as Volatility "shock" candles occur outside of the Technical channels. At this point it is essential to either choose a range to Scalp or take Short-term position (what I will do if Support cluster breaks). I personally remain Bearish under the Daily chart's action of the past several weeks which suggests that Trading will continue to be performed within the Daily chart's Bollinger Bands.
Technical analysis: Hourly 4 chart has taken a pause from the Descending Channel course to form a #1 - #2 session Triangle on Hourly 4 chart, as the absence of the Bullish pressure on Bond Yields (currently rejected on #2-Year High's) causing sideways action. Apart from that, last week's High can be distinguished as a Higher High's Lower zone on the Daily chart, demonstrating that the trend remains Bearish if Higher High's peak rejects the Price-action. The DX did approach the #95.80 Resistance but Gold remained more or less stationary, highlighting the strong Bearish Technical pressure it is under (Gold should be much Higher relative to the circumstances). My focus shifts to the Fundamental events due to the ties with Gold acting as an safe-haven. With Sellers showing limited activity around Higher-timeframe (clash between Technical necessity for Lower Low's extension, and Fundamental Buying pressure), it would also be too much of a risk to contemplate any kind of order at the moment (even though Bond Yields are expected to meet the Hourly 4 chart Resistance in #1-sessions time) when the said Higher-timeframe Support cluster have yet to be convincingly tested. It is important to note that every Support / Resistance rejection may push the Price-action towards the Neutral Rectangle, and it is the question which side of Triangle will break first. #1,852.80 break (and market closing above it) constitutes Bullish sustainability, while I will be ready to Sell Gold on Spot if Support cluster breaks (towards #1,811.80 variance).
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
