Sell order activated / Gold still under Selling pressure

Gold's general commentary: Irregular movements at the moment on the Short-term as Gold continues to Trade sideways within the #1,831.80 - #1,850’s belt / Resistance is invalidated on #2 occasions and #1,831.80 first Support on the Hourly 4 chart, #3 occasions. If I can draw anything positive out of this week’s Volatility, is that Gold revealed the underlying Short-term trend switch to - Bearish as Hourly 4 chart is Trading under Buying pressure (out of nowhere #1,825.80 semi-Support rejection, instead of pricing more losses, resulted as an #15 point spike upwards), which is nothing more than Fed coming to rescue Bulls (as it was the case many times ahead of Powell’s dovish commentary). I expect correction (steeper fall) on today's U.S. session opening and aggressive correction towards #1,825.80 pressure point once again. One important difference though: #1,831.80 Support is near, and break of (along with DX on an eminent uptrend, above #103.270) it can extend the Price-action towards the #1,800.80 barrier Support extension.


Technical analysis: Gold has broken the Lower High’s zone on Daily chart currently and turned marginally Bearish on Technical part, same Price-action and developments spotted on November #18 - November #23 sequence. Even though the Daily chart’s Support is seen Trading on #1,831.80 extension which Technically should be tested throughout today’s session (the outlook doesn't look favourable for Gold on the Medium-term), remember the importance of the Descending trendline, which when broken to the downside, continues the sequence on more than #50 points,). Traders may witnessing one of the strongest Technical Bearish oscillation which is called Death Cross (fuelled on Hourly 4 chart). Even though Gold is showing Bullish reversal signs (Oversold levels), emerging Death Cross is invalidating all those spots and should emerge new Bearish Multi-Year cycle (which I have estimated that will occur and announced it through my commentaries). Keep in mind that Death Cross not only that it denies Technical, it also invalidate the Fundamental part and should push Gold to #1,806.80 first then #1,792.80 in continuation. The Daily chart’s #MA50 is widely untouched and Gold is Trading comfortably below it (which is holding from April #22 Selling spree).


Fundamental analysis: As Gold is cyclical asset and one should pay attention to historic resemblance, Gold has made a similar full scale upswing in #2003 Year when it broke aggressively (above the #340 Weekly Resistance) into the #2003 - #2013 Bull Cycle. I see many similarities on #2019 Bullish cycle (Price-action broken above the Weekly (#1W) chart’s #1,450.80 Strong Resistance into the 2019 - Bull Cycle). As Gold is relatively Low under the current circumstances, I am expecting Bearish cycle ahead as Gold tends to struggle after Pricing the ATH’s. Keep in mind that Gold is still on Descending Channel on (#1W) Weekly chart and every peak / rejection near the Upper line of Descending Channel will pressure for Lower Low’s test. DX broke lately to a new Annual High’s and sole development was progressively adding extra Selling pressure on the already Bearish trend on Gold. As expected Hourly 4 chart continues to Trade sideways in an effort to harmonize the previously largely Overbought mechanics as the Price-action was rejected 3 times near Higher High’s, and every rejection was distinguished as an Selling opportunity. For now on my algorithm, chances for #1,752.80 test has #92% probability and my estimation is late June - early July. Fed statements confirmed my last Year projection that rate will remain on gradual rise and that Traders will witness more and more hawkish stances on the Fed’s speeches aftermath. Hourly 4 chart caught my attention where June #30 trendline is still protecting eminent uptrend, and if that is the case, I am expecting #1,806.80 test. It is important to note that even though #1,825.80 point rejected the Price-action aggressively on more than #15 points fractal (out of nowhere), Gold still closed the session below #1,842.80 Support fractal.


My position: As it is obvious, I am heavily on Selling side even though the Stop-loss on my yesterday's order got triggered (#13 point Stop-loss from my #1,831.80 entry point). However, I have engaged new Selling order with #1,838.80 as my new entry point. My new / old outlook aims for #1,806.80 Support zone once again, and if #1,831.80 gets crossed again, Sellers have decent chance to test and break #1,825.80 pressure point Intra-day. My practical suggestion is to Trade this with strict Risk management.