Selling sequence ahead / cannot rule out #1,915.80 test

Gold's general outlook: As my Medium-term Selling outlook is in continuation, Gold made a strong Bearish breakout on the foundation of more positive (Yields regarding) Fundamental announcements as market speculators are showing indecision. Price-action was close to reaching the Short-term Resistance of the Higher High (mentioned in my latest comments as #1,917.80 on Hourly 4 chart) much sooner than I expected as the market turned this fear into a parabolic decline similar to the Covid parabola early in February - March #2019, which could be the reason of this current Gold’s decline in continuation. As it happened then, the market psychology is similar, and as soon as the Bond Yields recovered, Gold's move will deflate and reach at least the Fibonacci retracement from last Month’s bottom. That is around Hourly 4 chart #1,871.80. The Hourly 1 chart is near Overbought and the RSI in particular on Daily chart above the #8-Month Support.


Fundamental analysis: As Traders understand, even though I am a strong Long-term Seller, I am also Trading Short-term set-ups and the current one is good enough for me to continue Selling the market if U.S. session offers decent losses and accumulate Sellers again. As I mentioned, Gold continues to be the product of High speculation on the Futures prices and the gap between Spot and GC (Gold Futures) persists. This just shows the continued High degree of Volatility and how unstable the market (along with most asset classes) has become. Technically the Daily Rectangle is broken and has hit its Higher High Lower zone (#1,895.80) already invalidated with Gold now having #4 Higher High’s since February #24. However, since April’s variance, Gold has habit to break the Support / Resistance, make a confirmation then pulls back / up and continue Trading sideways, so Traders who were Trading breakouts lately have to re-evaluate their strategy. As for the current situation, Gold (by the book) broken the #1-Month Support and automatically should be call for #1,871.80 (which represents Monthly Low) extension but, by recent experience - I’ll position myself accordingly and continue monitoring the market adding strict Risk management. Technically, break below #1,895.80 should put #1,871.80 configuration in motion, if Bond Yields correlation allow.


Technical analysis: Despite the fact that DX is on the rise, Gold opened yesterday's U.S. session on a Bullish fashion after the Bond Yields retraced a bit, as Selling momentum was postponed and Gold Bought back the dip. This is most likely speculative positioning ahead of this week’s Fundamentals (NFP). This will be the critical factor for Gold for the the week as I expect my first Target to be met within #18 hours (#1,871.80 or less) if Bond Yields continue the recovery. Daily chart turned Highly Bearish on Higher timeframe and #1,917.80 is my first Resistance. If broken, Gold can push as much as #1,927.80 (above Hourly 4 Resistance). As I discussed, I expect my Target to be met shortly since Bond Yields cannot Trade on Low’s for much longer. At the moment DX is outperforming Gold indicating that I can spot Bearish bias mainly on 2 reasons: a) hitting the #4 Month Resistance and b) deflating as the geopolitical tensions escalate and the capital that was parked on Gold is now being relocated to riskier assets. I remain confident that the cyclical downside has potential to hit #1,750.80 in the coming #1 - #2 Months. Keep in mind that the Volatility will get higher and higher as market head towards Biden’s spending agenda and Fed minutes, so I won't be taking any excessive risks. If Bond Yields engage the recovery early on, expect #1,871.80 and #1,850.80 in extension by end of the week.


My position: As I cannot rule out #1,917.80 Buying extension (since Bond Yields are on parabolic downtrend on Weekly chart (#1W)), I will wait for #1,895.80 configuration break to be certain and engage my Selling orders there (Targeting #1,871.80 or less). I am not interested in Buying on Short-term.