It seems the Argentinian Peso will be almost cut in half in the coming months. The dollar trend is wreaking havoc across emerging markets, exporting inflation and chaos everywhere. Argentina is at risk here, recently the gov has acknowledge the huge spread between the official exchange rate they allow grain exporters to use when selling their produce for foreign currency and created yet another exchange rate to allow them to sell at more favorable prices, the 'dolar soja' rate (at 200 USDARS).
The black market exchange rate and the dolar MEP and contado con liqui exchange rates are much higher, making people fear a sudden devaluation of the official rate to meet the unofficial dollar value higher closing the spread. QT + rate hikes in US soil is not helping one bit, and progress with energy exports won't come soon enough to lessen the impact of macro variables. As usual, the problem is not going to be resolved easily, or quickly (if ever at all), so the trend in the dollar is likely to remain bullish long term.
I'd suggest that if you are in Argentina and earn a salary in pesos, that you rush to buy USD asap, the next 2 weeks might see price moving above $336+ to then reach $400+- over time, by EOY.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
The black market exchange rate and the dolar MEP and contado con liqui exchange rates are much higher, making people fear a sudden devaluation of the official rate to meet the unofficial dollar value higher closing the spread. QT + rate hikes in US soil is not helping one bit, and progress with energy exports won't come soon enough to lessen the impact of macro variables. As usual, the problem is not going to be resolved easily, or quickly (if ever at all), so the trend in the dollar is likely to remain bullish long term.
I'd suggest that if you are in Argentina and earn a salary in pesos, that you rush to buy USD asap, the next 2 weeks might see price moving above $336+ to then reach $400+- over time, by EOY.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
