LongTerm and ShortTerm Analysis of GBPCHF,

This monthly chart is a possible bullish bias I have for GBPCHF over the long term. A bullish upmove to my 382 @1.76048.
You can see that here:

What is my fundamental reason for this? My theory is that if the vote for new british leader is lost by Boris Johnson, then the Pound is bullish.
Now if this fails, odds are the pound will continue bearish, but if the Pound is currently bearish I have an alternative below:


If price manages to break 1.2938 then bullish bias is confirmed for buys all the way to 1.34

But if price is BEARISH:
Assuming Pound breaks 1.269 then confirmed down trend to my short term 382 and 618 take profits, 1.26158 and 1.24445 respectively.