H4 supply at 1.1189/1.1158 whipsawed in order to grab stops?
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal. May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels and wrapped up a few pips shy of monthly highs, with June perhaps taking aim at 1.1857/1.1352.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Recording its sixth successive daily gain Tuesday, largely stirred on the back of consecutive USD declines, price extended space north of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1010, with supply at 1.1239/1.1179 making its debut yesterday.
Above current supply, another supply area exists at 1.1323/1.1268, joined with trendline resistance (1.0879), a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1286 and 78.6% Fib ret level from 1.1310.
H4 timeframe:
After forming a modest peak at 1.1154 on Monday, drawing in a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1154, Tuesday, sponsored by USD weakness, had price breach the upper limit of 1.1189/1.1158, a rally-base-drop supply zone.
Whipsawing the supply by way of a Japanese shooting star candlestick pattern, generally considered a bearish signal, exploring lower levels could be an option today. Equally likely, however, is a pop to supply at 1.1248/1.1217 (prior demand).
H1 timeframe:
Early London latched onto a strong bid off channel support (prior resistance - 1.0991), subsequently toppling offers around 1.1150. 1.12, as you can see, is tipped as the next resistance point on this timeframe.
Aside from 1.1250, technical studies suggest thin air inhabits space above 1.12 until crossing paths with supply from 1.1322/1.1286.
Structures of Interest:
The whipsaw above H4 supply at 1.1189/1.1158 is a concern should you derive your analysis from a single timeframe. However, knowing daily price recently connected with supply at 1.1239/1.1179, the H4 whipsaw could simply be a play to grab stops to fuel an intraday downside move today. Breaching 1.1150 on the H1 timeframe will help confirm seller intent, leaving the field open to 1.11.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal. May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels and wrapped up a few pips shy of monthly highs, with June perhaps taking aim at 1.1857/1.1352.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Recording its sixth successive daily gain Tuesday, largely stirred on the back of consecutive USD declines, price extended space north of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1010, with supply at 1.1239/1.1179 making its debut yesterday.
Above current supply, another supply area exists at 1.1323/1.1268, joined with trendline resistance (1.0879), a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1286 and 78.6% Fib ret level from 1.1310.
H4 timeframe:
After forming a modest peak at 1.1154 on Monday, drawing in a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1154, Tuesday, sponsored by USD weakness, had price breach the upper limit of 1.1189/1.1158, a rally-base-drop supply zone.
Whipsawing the supply by way of a Japanese shooting star candlestick pattern, generally considered a bearish signal, exploring lower levels could be an option today. Equally likely, however, is a pop to supply at 1.1248/1.1217 (prior demand).
H1 timeframe:
Early London latched onto a strong bid off channel support (prior resistance - 1.0991), subsequently toppling offers around 1.1150. 1.12, as you can see, is tipped as the next resistance point on this timeframe.
Aside from 1.1250, technical studies suggest thin air inhabits space above 1.12 until crossing paths with supply from 1.1322/1.1286.
Structures of Interest:
The whipsaw above H4 supply at 1.1189/1.1158 is a concern should you derive your analysis from a single timeframe. However, knowing daily price recently connected with supply at 1.1239/1.1179, the H4 whipsaw could simply be a play to grab stops to fuel an intraday downside move today. Breaching 1.1150 on the H1 timeframe will help confirm seller intent, leaving the field open to 1.11.
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