EURUSD: Sell Rallies

10 paź

The dollar has been in a strong recovery for the past two weeks, ever since the Fed decided to cut rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. This appears to be a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation, as much of the dollar weakness earlier this year was driven by speculation that the Fed would cut rates. Now that they've finally done it, we’re seeing the opposite reaction.

Focusing on the EUR/USD pair, we can see a very clear and strong push to the downside, forming an impulsive pattern from the 1.12 level. In Elliott Wave terms, this structure indicates the trend direction, which on the intraday timeframes is currently down. I would expect more weakness ahead, although markets never move in a straight line, so an ABC pullback is possible. In such a case, 1.10 to 1.1040 could serve as a good resistance zone to sell into.

It's also important to note that the ECB may be leaning towards more rate cuts, especially with Germany’s economic struggles. This could further pressure the euro, particularly if the Fed slows down its dovish actions, given that US inflation didn’t drop to the expected 2.3%, but instead came in at 2.4%. With US yields poised to move higher while the ECB remains dovish, I believe EUR/USD will stay under pressure.