The Fate of EUR/JPY Hinges on Friday, January 24! Why?
Markets are eagerly awaiting Friday, January 24, 2025, as highly significant economic indicators and news are expected to have a strong impact on the EUR/JPY pair and its medium-term direction. What are these data and news, and how might they affect the markets?
Key Developments in the Eurozone:
In addition to ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech, the following economic indicators are set to be released:
• German Manufacturing PMI: Expected to rise to 42.7, while the German Services PMI is forecast to decline slightly to 51.1.
• French Manufacturing PMI: Anticipated to increase to 42.4, with the French Services PMI expected to remain steady at 49.3.
• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: Expected to narrow its deficit from 41.9 to 42.4, while the Eurozone Services PMI is forecast to dip slightly from 51.6 to 51.4.
Traders are urged to closely monitor industrial sector data from France, Germany, and the broader Eurozone. This sector has been contracting recently due to the weak European economy. Any notable improvement in manufacturing PMI figures could positively influence the euro, according to analysts.
Key Developments in Japan:
Markets are also anticipating the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Friday morning. Expectations point to a 25-basis-point hike, raising Japan's interest rate to 0.50% — its highest level since October 6, 1995. If rates are raised as expected, this would likely have a positive impact on the Japanese yen, analysts suggest.
Possible Scenarios:
• Bearish Scenario for EUR/JPY: If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates and the Eurozone reports disappointing economic data, particularly in the industrial sector, this could negatively affect the euro while boosting the yen.
• Bullish Scenario for EUR/JPY: If the Eurozone delivers positive economic data with notable improvements in the industrial sector, supporting the euro, while the Bank of Japan does not raise interest rates, this could weaken the yen.
Technical Outlook for EUR/JPY:
The EUR/JPY pair is currently in a general downtrend, forming successive lower lows. Trading near the 162.66–162.777 levels increases the likelihood of further declines, targeting 160.473.
However, the bearish scenario would be invalidated if the price rises above 162.890 and closes a four-hour candle above this level, according to technical analysis.
The Big Question:
Will the economic indicators and news align with the technical outlook, or will they defy it? The answer will unfold on Friday, January 24, 2025.
Key Developments in the Eurozone:
In addition to ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech, the following economic indicators are set to be released:
• German Manufacturing PMI: Expected to rise to 42.7, while the German Services PMI is forecast to decline slightly to 51.1.
• French Manufacturing PMI: Anticipated to increase to 42.4, with the French Services PMI expected to remain steady at 49.3.
• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: Expected to narrow its deficit from 41.9 to 42.4, while the Eurozone Services PMI is forecast to dip slightly from 51.6 to 51.4.
Traders are urged to closely monitor industrial sector data from France, Germany, and the broader Eurozone. This sector has been contracting recently due to the weak European economy. Any notable improvement in manufacturing PMI figures could positively influence the euro, according to analysts.
Key Developments in Japan:
Markets are also anticipating the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Friday morning. Expectations point to a 25-basis-point hike, raising Japan's interest rate to 0.50% — its highest level since October 6, 1995. If rates are raised as expected, this would likely have a positive impact on the Japanese yen, analysts suggest.
Possible Scenarios:
• Bearish Scenario for EUR/JPY: If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates and the Eurozone reports disappointing economic data, particularly in the industrial sector, this could negatively affect the euro while boosting the yen.
• Bullish Scenario for EUR/JPY: If the Eurozone delivers positive economic data with notable improvements in the industrial sector, supporting the euro, while the Bank of Japan does not raise interest rates, this could weaken the yen.
Technical Outlook for EUR/JPY:
The EUR/JPY pair is currently in a general downtrend, forming successive lower lows. Trading near the 162.66–162.777 levels increases the likelihood of further declines, targeting 160.473.
However, the bearish scenario would be invalidated if the price rises above 162.890 and closes a four-hour candle above this level, according to technical analysis.
The Big Question:
Will the economic indicators and news align with the technical outlook, or will they defy it? The answer will unfold on Friday, January 24, 2025.
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