I haven't published BTC reviews in a while. And the chart I'm publishing now did not received updates since then (I just marked some things and change some colors). I just wait the time passes and see what is going to happen. And today something interesting happened.
To see what is happening, observe this:
a. the purple uptrend line that started in january 2019;
b. the three black circles marked in november 2019, december 2019 and january 2020 (today!);
c. MACD since september.
The chart suggests that after a spectacular high peaking in June 2019, the BTC is returning to the bullish trend that started in January 2019 (purple line).
We had three approximations of the purple uptrend line (actually an approximation, a strong reaction after a crossover the purple line with the closing price well above the uptrend line, and a strong reaction after touch in the line that happened today).
Point to consider: the falling volume on each reaction (it is tricky).
These levels tested by the BTC correspond to what was called in May 2019 by some analysts as the "mother of all resistances". And the BTC has passed over this resistance as if it were paper. Now we are seeing the testing of this level (around 6.3k and 6.5k) as support.
Forecast for BTC price: I don't know, but I'll explain why. If we look at the monthly chart (see: related ideas), we'll see that the BTC has formed a huge symmetrical triangle - which is a cotinutation pattern, but it is a formation that denotes doubt. Trading in a symmetrical triangle is risky.
What we have to observe before we take new positions:
1) Whether the high purple trend line will be respected;
2) If there is a break down from this line, the BTC can reach the 4.5k level - which is actually the bottom line of the symmetrical triangle;
3) If BTC continues the uptrend, there are two strong resistance levels to overcome: 7.5k~8.3k and 9.1k9.3k. Overdue these levels, BTC can fetch the 12k.
Observations 1, 2 and 3 above place the BTC within the bounds of the symmetrical triangle. Once these limits are reached, we will have to wait for a strong breakout to have a definite trend.
* For educational purposes only. Do not trade based on this analysis.
To see what is happening, observe this:
a. the purple uptrend line that started in january 2019;
b. the three black circles marked in november 2019, december 2019 and january 2020 (today!);
c. MACD since september.
The chart suggests that after a spectacular high peaking in June 2019, the BTC is returning to the bullish trend that started in January 2019 (purple line).
We had three approximations of the purple uptrend line (actually an approximation, a strong reaction after a crossover the purple line with the closing price well above the uptrend line, and a strong reaction after touch in the line that happened today).
Point to consider: the falling volume on each reaction (it is tricky).
These levels tested by the BTC correspond to what was called in May 2019 by some analysts as the "mother of all resistances". And the BTC has passed over this resistance as if it were paper. Now we are seeing the testing of this level (around 6.3k and 6.5k) as support.
Forecast for BTC price: I don't know, but I'll explain why. If we look at the monthly chart (see: related ideas), we'll see that the BTC has formed a huge symmetrical triangle - which is a cotinutation pattern, but it is a formation that denotes doubt. Trading in a symmetrical triangle is risky.
What we have to observe before we take new positions:
1) Whether the high purple trend line will be respected;
2) If there is a break down from this line, the BTC can reach the 4.5k level - which is actually the bottom line of the symmetrical triangle;
3) If BTC continues the uptrend, there are two strong resistance levels to overcome: 7.5k~8.3k and 9.1k9.3k. Overdue these levels, BTC can fetch the 12k.
Observations 1, 2 and 3 above place the BTC within the bounds of the symmetrical triangle. Once these limits are reached, we will have to wait for a strong breakout to have a definite trend.
* For educational purposes only. Do not trade based on this analysis.
