🌥️Bitcoin forecast based on clouds🌩️

The above chart shows "Ichimoku Clouds". And at the very beginning I would like to point out that the gray path marked by price candles is only a theoretical path that the price could take, and the truth is that only when several conditions are met, indications for increases may appear. And these are the premises we will deal with in today's analysis.

Let's start with what we see in both charts.
On the left we have a Bitcoin chart on a 1D interval (one day),
while on the right side of the chart we have a Bitcoin chart on the 1W interval (one week).

Let's look at the chart on the left first:
We have a red cloud on it, to which the price has already approached once and after this approach there was a downward reaction.
It is worth noting that if the downward trend on the 1D interval were to continue, it would be good for the blue Conversion Line to be below the red Base Line. But that's not the case.
Both of these lines intersected and now the blue one is above the red one. This may indicate that on the D1 interval we may see the price attack the red cloud again.


So let's look at the chart on the right side of the screen.
On the weekly time frame, the price has already entered the red cloud.
As if that wasn't enough, after the price entered the cloud, we could already see the attack on the upper edge of the cloud, which took place on July 10, 2023. (I marked this place with a green arrow)
However, I marked the price candle from March 2023 with a blue arrow, where a huge number of transactions resulted in a very large price increase in just one week. Such places deserve attention because usually when the price returns to the area of \u200b\u200bsuch candles, we can see a demand reaction again.

A similar situation to the current one occurred in November 2015 in the screenshot below.
(look for green arrow)
In 2015, the price entered the red cloud at exactly the same stage of cyclicality and the first attack on the upper part of the cloud ended in failure. Only the second attack on the upper edge of the red cloud was successful.

So to sum up.
In order for us to be able to talk about a final exit from the bear market based on ichi clouds on a weekly time frame, the weekly candle must close outside the red cloud area. Of course, its upper part.

What else is worth observing at the same stage of the cycle?
And the fact that the red cloud changed its color from red to green on a weekly basis. Exactly the same as it happened in 2015.
Screenshot below

However, there are things that worry me about the chart.
For example, on a weekly time frame, the red Base Line was above the blue Conversion Line. This was not the case in 2015. Could this mean that our upward trend has weakened? Yes, maybe. The only question is for how long. Because:
Taking into account the third quarter (Q3) in 2015, we had declines of approximately -10%, while the fourth quarter (Q4) recorded huge increases of approximately 81% (and this was the period before the Bitcoin halving, just like now).
The next thing is October at this stage of the cycle. In 2015, September was a rather dull month. There are usually declines in September, but at this stage of the cycle in 2015, September was a month that closed at +2.35%, a year later September was also positive (6.04%). However, Octobers, after these slightly increasing months in 2015 and 2016, were clearly in green. In October 2015 we had increases of +33.5% and a year later 14.7%.

What do I expect in October 2023?
I believe that unless there is a global economic catastrophe, there is a chance that October 2023 will also be positive.
But for this to happen, first of all, the price on the D1 interval must go out and close outside the area of the upper red cloud, which in turn may lead to the weekly candle closing outside the area of the red cloud on the weekly interval, and if all this coincides with the monthly sentiment and quarterly, the probability of a green October increases and, consequently, the fourth quarter of 2023 may also be positive.

Thank you for reading to the end.
If you liked the analysis, click the thumbs up (or rocket) button and leave a comment with your opinion :)