BTCUSD: 22,000 or Lower Highly Likely Coming Which see
Hi Everyone! Just wanted to get this out quickly... It is rather obvious now this is NOT accumulation and we are highly likely coming down with anther Sign of Weakness in Phase E to $22,000 or lower.
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
2-Week time frame:
Green Text Bubble:
This Green Line in the 2-Week did start coming up at the beginning (start)
of this 2-Week candle. However, it is beginning to turn back down and
rightly so due to what we are seeing now in lower time frames; such as
the 5-Day time frame with its Green Line turning down and Red making
contact with Green Line in the 5-Day; indicating downward pressure.
2-Week time frame:
Green Text Bubble:
This Green Line in the 2-Week did start coming up at the beginning (start)
of this 2-Week candle. However, it is beginning to turn back down and
rightly so due to what we are seeing now in lower time frames; such as
the 5-Day time frame with its Green Line turning down and Red making
contact with Green Line in the 5-Day; indicating downward pressure.
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
Weekly Time Frame:
Green Text Bubble:
Look for this Green Line to begin turning down the next
Weekly Candle if not the current Weekly Candle and the
price action likely head down toward the Orange Lower
B-Band.
Weekly Time Frame:
Green Text Bubble:
Look for this Green Line to begin turning down the next
Weekly Candle if not the current Weekly Candle and the
price action likely head down toward the Orange Lower
B-Band.
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
Entire Near Term Group of time frames (12-hour, 24-hour, 2-Day, 3-Day, 4-Day, 5-Day, 6-Day, 1-Week):
NOTE the 5-Day time frame; which just started with 4 Days 7 hours remaining:
The Red making contact with Green while Green going down; indicating downward pressure. Red and Blue Both Below White Level 30; indicating higher odds to fall down from White Lower b-band to Aqua Lower B-Band at $27,300 but can go lower.
Entire Near Term Group of time frames (12-hour, 24-hour, 2-Day, 3-Day, 4-Day, 5-Day, 6-Day, 1-Week):
NOTE the 5-Day time frame; which just started with 4 Days 7 hours remaining:
The Red making contact with Green while Green going down; indicating downward pressure. Red and Blue Both Below White Level 30; indicating higher odds to fall down from White Lower b-band to Aqua Lower B-Band at $27,300 but can go lower.
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
8-hour time frame:
Red Text Bubble:
Red and Blue falling below White Level 30 in this 8-hour time frame
indicates high probability for expansion of b-bands and price action
to continue falling with this expansion of the b-bands.
8-hour time frame:
Red Text Bubble:
Red and Blue falling below White Level 30 in this 8-hour time frame
indicates high probability for expansion of b-bands and price action
to continue falling with this expansion of the b-bands.
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
12-hour time frame:
12-hour time frame:
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
IMPORTANT UPDATE on the 24-hour, 2-Day and 3-Day time frames:
IMPORTANT UPDATE on the 24-hour, 2-Day and 3-Day time frames:
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
If my TA is correct, this would mean our first initial drop would be to the Aqua Lower B_Band in the 2-Day time frame around $26,500
If my TA is correct, this would mean our first initial drop would be to the Aqua Lower B_Band in the 2-Day time frame around $26,500
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
Yes, it is possible we may have to wait until the NEXT 2-Day candle after this new one that's about to begin. We'll see...
Yes, it is possible we may have to wait until the NEXT 2-Day candle after this new one that's about to begin. We'll see...
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
Having to wait until the NEXT 2-Day candle is actually a good thing. How so, you might ask?
Well, going sideways for this entire 2-Day candle would establish a PRELIMINARY SUPPORT RANGE.
Guess what follows a Preliminary Support Range; which is part of Phase A of Accumulation?
A "Selling Climax."
What follows a Selling Climax?
An AUTOMATIC RALLY back up to Preliminary Support Range.
This is why I say going sideways within a trading range for the next couple of days is not necessarily a bad thing.
A
Having to wait until the NEXT 2-Day candle is actually a good thing. How so, you might ask?
Well, going sideways for this entire 2-Day candle would establish a PRELIMINARY SUPPORT RANGE.
Guess what follows a Preliminary Support Range; which is part of Phase A of Accumulation?
A "Selling Climax."
What follows a Selling Climax?
An AUTOMATIC RALLY back up to Preliminary Support Range.
This is why I say going sideways within a trading range for the next couple of days is not necessarily a bad thing.
A
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
Here is a tutorial for TRADITIONAL Wyckoff Method: school.stockcha...ts.com/doku.php?id=market_...
Price movement in the day of Richard D. Wyckoff is not as "complex" as it is in the age of crypto. Wyckoff, notices certain patterns of EVENTS that would occur during periods of accumulation and distribution. He created names PHASES of each period of Accumulation and Distribution and also created names for EVENTS within each phase.
Present Day price movement (especially in crypto) often has two levels or tiers of Accumulation or two levels or tiers of Distribution. Why two levels or tiers? Well, during Distribution, one level or tier would be used primarily for Distribution while the other level or tier would be used primarily for liquidation during Phase A through Phase C of Distribution. During Accumulation, one level or tier would be used primarily for Accumulation while the other level or tier would be used primarily for liquidation of positions during Phase A through Phase C.
This creation of two tiered schematics also created a pattern of common events. Such as my new EVENT I call "Up-Thrust/Last Point of Supply" in Phase D of Distribution. Which is a counterpart of "Back-Up/Last Point of Support" in Phase D of Accumulation. That's only one example of several NEW events I've created for Wyckoff Method 2.0 for our present day and age with more complex price movement.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
Here is a tutorial for TRADITIONAL Wyckoff Method: school.stockcha...ts.com/doku.php?id=market_...
Price movement in the day of Richard D. Wyckoff is not as "complex" as it is in the age of crypto. Wyckoff, notices certain patterns of EVENTS that would occur during periods of accumulation and distribution. He created names PHASES of each period of Accumulation and Distribution and also created names for EVENTS within each phase.
Present Day price movement (especially in crypto) often has two levels or tiers of Accumulation or two levels or tiers of Distribution. Why two levels or tiers? Well, during Distribution, one level or tier would be used primarily for Distribution while the other level or tier would be used primarily for liquidation during Phase A through Phase C of Distribution. During Accumulation, one level or tier would be used primarily for Accumulation while the other level or tier would be used primarily for liquidation of positions during Phase A through Phase C.
This creation of two tiered schematics also created a pattern of common events. Such as my new EVENT I call "Up-Thrust/Last Point of Supply" in Phase D of Distribution. Which is a counterpart of "Back-Up/Last Point of Support" in Phase D of Accumulation. That's only one example of several NEW events I've created for Wyckoff Method 2.0 for our present day and age with more complex price movement.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
ABREVIATION DEFINITIONS - WYCKOFF METHOD 2.0:
AR = Automatic Rally
A.Re. = Automatic Reaction
BC = Buying Climax
BU = Back-Up
BU/LPS = Back Up / Last Point of Support
ER in 2-TAS = Exponential Rally in 2-Tier
Accumulation Schematic
E.Re. in Phase B = Exponential Reaction in Phase B
E. A. Re. = Exponential Automatic Reaction
LPS = Last point of Support
LPSY = Last Point of Supply
LTPSR = Long Term Preliminary Support Range
LTPSPYR = Long Term Preliminary Supply Range
MTPSR = Mid Term Preliminary Support Range
MTPSPYR = Mid Term Preliminary Supply Range
NTPSR = Near Term Preliminary Support Range
NTPSPYR = Near Term Preliminary Supply Range
PSR = Preliminary Support Range
PSPY = Preliminary Supply
SC = Selling Climax
SOS = Sign of Strength
SOW = Sign Of Weakness
SR = Simple Rally
S.Re. in Phase B = Simple Reaction in Phase B
ST = Second Test
STPSR = Short Term Preliminary Support Range
STSPY = Second Test of Supply
STPSYR = Short Term Preliminary Supply Range
TSPY = Test Supply
TR = Trading Range
UT = Up Thrust
UTAD = Up Thrust After Distribution
UT/LPSPY = Up-Thrust/Last Point of Supply
ABREVIATION DEFINITIONS - WYCKOFF METHOD 2.0:
AR = Automatic Rally
A.Re. = Automatic Reaction
BC = Buying Climax
BU = Back-Up
BU/LPS = Back Up / Last Point of Support
ER in 2-TAS = Exponential Rally in 2-Tier
Accumulation Schematic
E.Re. in Phase B = Exponential Reaction in Phase B
E. A. Re. = Exponential Automatic Reaction
LPS = Last point of Support
LPSY = Last Point of Supply
LTPSR = Long Term Preliminary Support Range
LTPSPYR = Long Term Preliminary Supply Range
MTPSR = Mid Term Preliminary Support Range
MTPSPYR = Mid Term Preliminary Supply Range
NTPSR = Near Term Preliminary Support Range
NTPSPYR = Near Term Preliminary Supply Range
PSR = Preliminary Support Range
PSPY = Preliminary Supply
SC = Selling Climax
SOS = Sign of Strength
SOW = Sign Of Weakness
SR = Simple Rally
S.Re. in Phase B = Simple Reaction in Phase B
ST = Second Test
STPSR = Short Term Preliminary Support Range
STSPY = Second Test of Supply
STPSYR = Short Term Preliminary Supply Range
TSPY = Test Supply
TR = Trading Range
UT = Up Thrust
UTAD = Up Thrust After Distribution
UT/LPSPY = Up-Thrust/Last Point of Supply
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
BARE IN MIND:
If Wyckoff were alive today, he would LOVE to have the technology we have today. He did EVERYTHING on paper. EVERYTHING. His primary focus was tape reading, price bar charts, volume bar charts and point and figure charts.
PRESENT DAY:
I have no need for for volume bars. Why? Because my Phoenix Ascending indicator measures VOLUME several different ways. I can even tell WHEN we have increased odds of an increase volume approaching with my Phoenix Ascending indicator. Phoenix Ascending lets us know WHEN we have increased odds for the price action to move UP or DOWN at any given time. However, this is best understood by monitoring MULTIPLE time frames.
Yes, Phoenix Ascending is an AWESOME indicator. BUT, it was lacking one thing. It could not tell me WHERE the price could go WHEN it would move UP or DOWN. Wyckoff, used Point and Figure charts to provide a price range of WHERE the price action could go WHEN it moved UP or DOWN. Present Day, I use my "Bad Ass B-Bands" indicator to help me determine WHERE the price could go WHEN it moves UP or DOWN.
I don't even rely on Fibonacci that much like I used to for potential target ranges. Once I "color coordinated" my LEVELS within Phoenix Ascending indicator WITH my multiple Bollinger bands of my "Bad Ass B-Bands" indicator, there was no need for me to rely on Fibonacci as much as I used to anymore. Yes, it's nice to use Fibonacci as a second opinion but I rely more on Bad Ass B-Bands than I do Fibonacci levels.
Simply thought I would elaborate briefly on my methods and WHY I created and use the methods I use.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
BARE IN MIND:
If Wyckoff were alive today, he would LOVE to have the technology we have today. He did EVERYTHING on paper. EVERYTHING. His primary focus was tape reading, price bar charts, volume bar charts and point and figure charts.
PRESENT DAY:
I have no need for for volume bars. Why? Because my Phoenix Ascending indicator measures VOLUME several different ways. I can even tell WHEN we have increased odds of an increase volume approaching with my Phoenix Ascending indicator. Phoenix Ascending lets us know WHEN we have increased odds for the price action to move UP or DOWN at any given time. However, this is best understood by monitoring MULTIPLE time frames.
Yes, Phoenix Ascending is an AWESOME indicator. BUT, it was lacking one thing. It could not tell me WHERE the price could go WHEN it would move UP or DOWN. Wyckoff, used Point and Figure charts to provide a price range of WHERE the price action could go WHEN it moved UP or DOWN. Present Day, I use my "Bad Ass B-Bands" indicator to help me determine WHERE the price could go WHEN it moves UP or DOWN.
I don't even rely on Fibonacci that much like I used to for potential target ranges. Once I "color coordinated" my LEVELS within Phoenix Ascending indicator WITH my multiple Bollinger bands of my "Bad Ass B-Bands" indicator, there was no need for me to rely on Fibonacci as much as I used to anymore. Yes, it's nice to use Fibonacci as a second opinion but I rely more on Bad Ass B-Bands than I do Fibonacci levels.
Simply thought I would elaborate briefly on my methods and WHY I created and use the methods I use.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
CONCLUSION:
I use my indicators to help me determine what EVENTS within each PHASE may occur within an Accumulation or Distribution Schematic. This assists with both high time frame scalping (using the Short Term Group of time frames) and helps with swing trading when transitioning out of Phase C into Phase D of Accumulation or Distribution. My indicators also help me determine when we can see another upcoming swing when we transition from Phase D into Phase E of Distribution or Accumulation.
Hope this was helpful... Sorry for all the notifications you may be receiving with my updates. I simply wanted to provide a BREAKDOWN of my methods and why I use them.
Stay Awesome!
David
CONCLUSION:
I use my indicators to help me determine what EVENTS within each PHASE may occur within an Accumulation or Distribution Schematic. This assists with both high time frame scalping (using the Short Term Group of time frames) and helps with swing trading when transitioning out of Phase C into Phase D of Accumulation or Distribution. My indicators also help me determine when we can see another upcoming swing when we transition from Phase D into Phase E of Distribution or Accumulation.
Hope this was helpful... Sorry for all the notifications you may be receiving with my updates. I simply wanted to provide a BREAKDOWN of my methods and why I use them.
Stay Awesome!
David
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
By the way, I NEVER said we WILL go to $34K. I "NEVER" said that.
IN FACT, I've said FOR WEEKS we will have a HARD TIME making it above the white lower b-band in the Weekly time frame. FOR WEEKS...
I simply point out in a publication we COULD "wick" above the white lower b-band in the weekly and CLOSE below the white lower b-band. WHY? Because the Red Line is well below white level 30. I've said this for WEEKS...
I'm replying here to TROLLS... Seeing how @TradingView will not let me see the trolls comments in this publication. Which means I cannot point out the trolls are FLAT OUT LYING...
These trolls don't know me and they don't like me. They are simply having a private battle with me inside their own head and they are LOSING.
Why?
Because they KNOW I'm their Huckleberry
By the way, I NEVER said we WILL go to $34K. I "NEVER" said that.
IN FACT, I've said FOR WEEKS we will have a HARD TIME making it above the white lower b-band in the Weekly time frame. FOR WEEKS...
I simply point out in a publication we COULD "wick" above the white lower b-band in the weekly and CLOSE below the white lower b-band. WHY? Because the Red Line is well below white level 30. I've said this for WEEKS...
I'm replying here to TROLLS... Seeing how @TradingView will not let me see the trolls comments in this publication. Which means I cannot point out the trolls are FLAT OUT LYING...
These trolls don't know me and they don't like me. They are simply having a private battle with me inside their own head and they are LOSING.
Why?
Because they KNOW I'm their Huckleberry
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
AQUA TEXT BUBBLE:
If we do end up falling again we may see this price range
shaded in aqua blue act as our "Preliminary Support Range" for the bounce back up
commonly referred to as an "Automatic Rally" in Wyckoff Method. We should always
be mindful to look for an area in which the price ranges sideways a bit before dropping.
The price ranging sideways like this before a big drop is often where we come back up
to after the big drop. Which means we would normally be prepared to close a long
position we may have opened at or near the bottom of a "Selling Climax" event.
BLUE TEXT BUBBLE:
Another push back down with another "sign of Weakness" event in Phase E can
also act as a "selling Climax" in Phase A of Accumulation. This is an excellent
place to open a long position for the ride back up to or near the Preliminary
Suport Range. NOTE: I'm NOT saying $24,xxx will be the bottom of a potential
Selling Climax event. We can fall further down to the 200-MA in the Weekly.
Which is currently at $22,xxx. Yes, it's possible to fall further than $22,xxx.
That's for those requiring google translate.
I'm NOT going to rule out a possible "Spring" event. We'll see.
Meaning this COULD have been a "Spring" event in Accumulation but Mid and Long Term Groups of time frames suggest otherwise.
AQUA TEXT BUBBLE:
If we do end up falling again we may see this price range
shaded in aqua blue act as our "Preliminary Support Range" for the bounce back up
commonly referred to as an "Automatic Rally" in Wyckoff Method. We should always
be mindful to look for an area in which the price ranges sideways a bit before dropping.
The price ranging sideways like this before a big drop is often where we come back up
to after the big drop. Which means we would normally be prepared to close a long
position we may have opened at or near the bottom of a "Selling Climax" event.
BLUE TEXT BUBBLE:
Another push back down with another "sign of Weakness" event in Phase E can
also act as a "selling Climax" in Phase A of Accumulation. This is an excellent
place to open a long position for the ride back up to or near the Preliminary
Suport Range. NOTE: I'm NOT saying $24,xxx will be the bottom of a potential
Selling Climax event. We can fall further down to the 200-MA in the Weekly.
Which is currently at $22,xxx. Yes, it's possible to fall further than $22,xxx.
That's for those requiring google translate.
I'm NOT going to rule out a possible "Spring" event. We'll see.
Meaning this COULD have been a "Spring" event in Accumulation but Mid and Long Term Groups of time frames suggest otherwise.
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
RED TEXT BUBBLE:
I'm NOT saying we go down to this price point. This is only a PROXIMITY price point. PERIOD
We could stop short of it at the 200 Week Moving Average around $22,xxx -OR- we could fall
further. We'll see...
BLUE TEXT BUBBLE:
Next 6-Week candle begins in 7-Days and 8-hours. At which point the
Blue Line is likely to fall below white level 70. This would increase
odds for price action to continue falling further toward the White Lower
B-Band; which will be a higher price than the current $17,827 price point.
RED TEXT BUBBLE:
I'm NOT saying we go down to this price point. This is only a PROXIMITY price point. PERIOD
We could stop short of it at the 200 Week Moving Average around $22,xxx -OR- we could fall
further. We'll see...
BLUE TEXT BUBBLE:
Next 6-Week candle begins in 7-Days and 8-hours. At which point the
Blue Line is likely to fall below white level 70. This would increase
odds for price action to continue falling further toward the White Lower
B-Band; which will be a higher price than the current $17,827 price point.
Komentarz:
Komentarz:
UPDATE:
Simply re-posting the 2-Week chart to show the progression for future reference.
Simply re-posting the 2-Week chart to show the progression for future reference.
2014 Distribution before Accumulation:
2017 Distribution before Accumulation: