Short

Time to scare both sides of the market...

Zaktualizowano

Chart speaks for itself.
To be expected during period of next 3 months - 1 year to flush out market participants and fill all CME gaps.

Uwaga

Keep in mind that "E" wave could have been executed already as part of this short squeeze from 9600 to 10400.

Uwaga

As 9300 was broken, the triangle officially exited to the downside just with our expectations.

As we posted in update, the "E" was printed earlier.

Uwaga

Although our target has been hit on few exchanges, we're expecting price to go to low 7k's or high 6k's. Even 6k might be hit. We're trying to calculate what price would cause uncertainty and fear. This might take few weeks.

Reason for this is very simple: there's too much of bulishness across the space and social media. Even from these aspiring "pro" traders. Bitmex futures still trading at premium also proves the thesis. Such situation is just crazy for new downside swing that had began after 3 months consolidation.

Calling for reversals and saying how "bullish" we are because we hold this level, after 48 hours since intial drop - hints that players are more likely to watch predefined levels, instead of PA and how trend follows. Remember, markets dont move up/down in a straight line.

As long as this stays intact, there's no hope for any reversals - which happen under uncertainty and fear. That's why we expect this trend to overperform until certain level of fear is reached.

Uwaga

Target was hit with 20$ precision.
Although we expect the price to go to 6xxx region, as posted in update above.
This might take some time.

Uwaga

Before further breakdown, we're expecting retest of triangle boundary that should come up with parabolic advance within next days.

Uwaga

Further correction impulse to upside invalidated. Clear flat structure playing out now.

Uwaga

As the market completed flat correction - it has now started new wave of downtrend. Below visualisation of flat.

Uwaga

We'll provide shorter term count soon. Overall expecting significant bounce around 7900-8080

Uwaga

Current short term. Please note this is "light" version with target to 7950 before bounce.
However keep in mind that, the first wave is very strong and that means that it can go as low as 7400 before doing any kind of retrace. We'll be watching what happens near lows and adjust accordingly.

Uwaga

Update:

Overall everything is going as expected with the idea (be sure to watch updates)

1. The flat correction structure is doing EXACTLY as we expected.
2. There are minor changes in new downside impulse naming.

The market should doing some dead cat bounce either at 7200 or 7800, then countinue downtrend.

Uwaga

1.618 was hit. Market yet to do decide what to do here.

We wouldn't exclude a possiblity of short squeeze correction here before further way down. Plenty of signs pointing at this scenario so we believe it's very likely. Although it does not have to happen.

Uwaga

As with our expectations market did some sort of bounce here from 7800 level. However this is not the bounce you're looking for YET.

Market is currently in process of correcting entire downswing (8900 - 7800).
The correction is irregular one and the 77xx level should be reached before an upside move to 8250-8350.

Uwaga

At 8350 as many of you probabbly know the market has completed wave 2.
Break of 7850 indicated start of wave 3 which is currently in progress.

We will update chart soon.

Uwaga

Target should be around 6900 for 1 in 3.

Uwaga

Dont be too optimistic here. The market might be doing irregular flat correction here which should go around 8.7 and still go down.

We dont recommend playing that, however the scenario is entirely possible.
Waiting for market to provide more clues.

Uwaga

Here is visualisation. We wont blindly short that, but be aware of this.

Uwaga

We're expecting market to still go down, even tho it went much higher than our expectations. The current count is uncertain and we're waiting till some more information unfolds.

Market should be visiting CME gap region before retesting the local highs.

Uwaga

Update after 20 days. Not much has happened as we were clearly distribution after impulsive move.

As you can see the price went higher than we expected (10.6 instead of 9k). However after this it formed distribution top and is currently near the target for first stage of downside movement at 6300 (see arrow from Oct 25).

In case anyone is wondering where possible "botom" might be, we're utilizing following channel for past month.

The price has heavly respected the channel and we're expecting it to revisit bottom boundary before potentialy moving up. We will be closing shorts near bottom of the channel (6100-6500)

mark124

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