🤖 #BTCLIVE - 15.08 - #IDEA 🤖 - Part 4
BTC Growth Models - Labs
Interestingly the growth models are all showing the bottom is coming in - this is not exactly news - we are currently using the (best imo) model for this which is the DXY*BTCSUPPLY/M2 or DBM Model for short* to find the best context. Whilst we are very very low in the percentiles here there is still a depressing distance that BTC can go to stay well withing the max pain parameters which can push to about $16k this would actually line up with some of the other scenarios I did on the dominances and totals. Other significant markers such as the pi cycle, ema floor model and cowen corridor are calling absolute bottom though.
in a nutshell - we are at the bottom but there could still be one last painful short term shot down. I feel this would not occur naturally and would take some pretty significant FUD to drive the price down to these levels.
Here we explore several prediction models:
QR = Standard Quantile Regression (QR) Model without any adjustments
DXY = Deflate BTC price as DXY increases, use this as basis for regression
M2 = Inflate BTC price as USD M2 Money Supply increases
BTCSUPPLY = Deflate BTC price as BTC Circulating Supply increases (no adjustment for lost coins)
DXY/M2 = Combination of DXY and M2 adjustments
DXY*BTCSUPPLY/M2 = Combination of DXY , BTC Supply and M2 adjustments
BTC Growth Models - Labs
Interestingly the growth models are all showing the bottom is coming in - this is not exactly news - we are currently using the (best imo) model for this which is the DXY*BTCSUPPLY/M2 or DBM Model for short* to find the best context. Whilst we are very very low in the percentiles here there is still a depressing distance that BTC can go to stay well withing the max pain parameters which can push to about $16k this would actually line up with some of the other scenarios I did on the dominances and totals. Other significant markers such as the pi cycle, ema floor model and cowen corridor are calling absolute bottom though.
in a nutshell - we are at the bottom but there could still be one last painful short term shot down. I feel this would not occur naturally and would take some pretty significant FUD to drive the price down to these levels.
Here we explore several prediction models:
QR = Standard Quantile Regression (QR) Model without any adjustments
DXY = Deflate BTC price as DXY increases, use this as basis for regression
M2 = Inflate BTC price as USD M2 Money Supply increases
BTCSUPPLY = Deflate BTC price as BTC Circulating Supply increases (no adjustment for lost coins)
DXY/M2 = Combination of DXY and M2 adjustments
DXY*BTCSUPPLY/M2 = Combination of DXY , BTC Supply and M2 adjustments
