BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Room For Lows.

16 wrz 2017

BTCUSD Update: Since this market is leading the entire coin world, it is a good idea to gain some perspective on where this market can go in order to better evaluate the risk of your positioning in the alt coins.

Let's begin with the current momentum since the recent price spike may have some people confused. The push back up to 3875 is just barely above the 3723 resistance (.382 of the bearish swing), and now price is retracing. A retrace to test the low is not unusual and can possibly offer a buying opportunity. The key support area for this scenario is 3319 to 3171. If price can reverse in this area, then a broader higher low structure will be in place and offer a short term (swing trade) opportunity with a conservative target. If this scenario unfolds, I expect the alt coins to follow. Reversal formations within the support area are the key requirement in order to define risk.

What happens if price falls through? Great question I'm glad you asked. If price pushes below 3171, then it is likely to retest the 2980 low. If that breaks, then that opens the door to a retrace that can revisit the 2497 level which is the bottom of the zone. This support zone is the .618 of the entire previous bullish swing and would be a convenient level for a broad Wave 2 to bottom. More on Elliott Wave in a moment.

If this market presents the scenario where this support zone breaks, the next support is 1930. Yes it sounds a little extreme, but it is the 2.618 extension projected from the 5000 high. I am NOT saying that the market will test this low, but IF it presents this scenario, then there will be some great investment opportunities in the alt coins in my opinion.

In terms of Elliott Wave, this appears to be a 3 3 5 correction with the current spike being 4 of C which means there is a greater chance that Wave 5 of C unfolds and as we have seen , Wave 5s have a tendency to extend. That is why I mention 1930 as a possibility. 1930 also happens to be the bottom of the previous Wave 4 when the market was still in the bullish structure if you look further back on the chart.

Within this bearish context, it is very important to wait for confirmations and have conservative short term targets for swing trades. Investing, as I have emphasized before is a different strategy that contains different risk parameters. If you are investing for the long term, then you must understand the risks, and see new lows as an opportunity and not have to worry so much about precise entries.

I am using this chart as a reference point for both swing trading and investing. As a swing trader, I am waiting to see if this market can stabilize somewhere within the 3319 to 3171 area I and will be watching cheaper coins like ETH and LTC for short term trades with conservative targets. As an investor, I am just watching to see if this market pushes lows so that I can purchase some lower priced coins for the long run which means I am buying to hold. It is a completely different strategy compared to the short term trades that I write about.

In summary, BTC is clearly leading the alt coins as evidenced by the similar chart structures across the board. If you are not trading BTC outright, in a sense you are still exposed to its price action by purchasing any alt coin, so it doesn't hurt to have some perspective on this market. Being that we are in a corrective C Wave, this market is more likely to retest the current low, if not push into lower territory before the bearish momentum exhausts itself. If a higher low forms, there may be a short term buying opportunity, but as far as going back to 5000, that is not happening until this market builds more of a base. In my opinion, this correction is a broad Wave 2 and when the bottoming process is complete (which can take weeks) that will eventually be the beginning of large Wave 3 and those of you who have been reading my analysis consistently should know what that means by now.

Questions and comments welcome.