Bitcoin and The Failed IH&S, Higher Low or New Low, Part 3
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The targets of the previous analysis have been "reached", but the movement is probably still not over yet. Even though we have dropped quite a bit already since the 4250 high of the weekend. There is simply just no panic selling or any high volume to be seen yet. Only at the break of the 3800 support (where price had found some support several times) caused some volume selling to happen. But as we can see on the left, all the movement is still inside that channel. So it's like slowly making new lows, almost like it is being controlled.
One thing is clear, there is not a lot of buying going on the past days, since the volume is on the lower side. But we can also say that selling volume might be drying up. I can't say which one it is, but i think it's the last one.
I think it's safe to say, that mid-term buyers who might have bought around the 3500/3900 the past 2 weeks, are not selling while we are still above the 3500/3600 support zone. As i mentioned several times lately, i don't think that zone will be an easy one to break. I think the channel on the left is actually a translation of this possible fact. For the ones who don't understand WHY we see an acceleration when certain support levels break, this is it. The 3500/3600 is such an obvious support zone, that it becomes an easy buy and/or hold when we stay above that level. Just like we saw at the 6100/6200 zone. Everyone who was buying that zone, was selling like crazy when it eventually broke. This 3500 level is of course no where near as strong as the 6100 level, but it will still cause a lot of stops to trigger if the support breaks.
What games do whales love to play? That is making false breakouts. What i am trying to show with the red line. To be clear, i am not saying this will happen, but if we see that support line of the channel break, we will probably see an acceleration down which will also probably break the 3500/3600 support zone. If we see a lot of panic selling happening but see some accumulation/buying going on as well at a certain level (my best guess is around 3200/3300) and start to see the forming of a V shape low. This scenario is just so genius and i know most people don't even know what is really going on when that happens. Too much to get in to right now, but i will try to make an educational post about it soon.
Back to business, for the short we are still moving inside this small bear flag between 3670/3750. We should have dropped 4 hours ago but out of nowhere a lot of buying power stepped in the market and saved the bear flag from breaking. This increases the chance for a Bart move, so be aware of this. I can't say yet which one it is, but the longer it takes the higher the chances for a Bart move. If this Bart move does happen, it will probably break the 3800 and move towards the 3900ish. If this Bart move happens, it could mean we will move to the upside again of this channel. If we don't see a squeeze happen, the 3800 will be a heavy resistance level for the short term and a key level between very bearish movement or more slow and steady movement as this channel suggests.
So in summary:
- The red line is an assumption, being prepared in case the channel breaks, we make a big drop but start to see a lot of buying that pushes the price back in the channel again. This
scenario suggest a mid-term low, maybe even a long term low if we see a big rally happening.
- Same as the red line, but we don't see a big bounce at the low and stay below the 3500/3600, maybe even making a bigger flag. This would be very bearish and we need to judge things again at that moment.
- A Bart move, if that is the case, we will probably move 6/12 hours like this and see a short squeeze above the 3900ish. If we see a bull flag-ish forming around that level, i think a short term low is set. A break of the channel is obviously important as well, but i think the 4050/4100 is the key level for now. I think a break of this level could give us much more upwards movement. If we see that happening, we would even have a potential big double bottom on the daily. The 4400 (previous high) is obviously an important level as well. But for me to become more bull than bear, the 4600ish will be the level to break. On the long term, anything below 4600 is still very bearish.
So no clear path at this moment, since the bear flag has been turned into a possible Bart move. Since this extended bear flag has made things much more difficult to judge. As long as we don't see rallies of 150+ points, it will remain very bearish.
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Previous analysis:
One thing is clear, there is not a lot of buying going on the past days, since the volume is on the lower side. But we can also say that selling volume might be drying up. I can't say which one it is, but i think it's the last one.
I think it's safe to say, that mid-term buyers who might have bought around the 3500/3900 the past 2 weeks, are not selling while we are still above the 3500/3600 support zone. As i mentioned several times lately, i don't think that zone will be an easy one to break. I think the channel on the left is actually a translation of this possible fact. For the ones who don't understand WHY we see an acceleration when certain support levels break, this is it. The 3500/3600 is such an obvious support zone, that it becomes an easy buy and/or hold when we stay above that level. Just like we saw at the 6100/6200 zone. Everyone who was buying that zone, was selling like crazy when it eventually broke. This 3500 level is of course no where near as strong as the 6100 level, but it will still cause a lot of stops to trigger if the support breaks.
What games do whales love to play? That is making false breakouts. What i am trying to show with the red line. To be clear, i am not saying this will happen, but if we see that support line of the channel break, we will probably see an acceleration down which will also probably break the 3500/3600 support zone. If we see a lot of panic selling happening but see some accumulation/buying going on as well at a certain level (my best guess is around 3200/3300) and start to see the forming of a V shape low. This scenario is just so genius and i know most people don't even know what is really going on when that happens. Too much to get in to right now, but i will try to make an educational post about it soon.
Back to business, for the short we are still moving inside this small bear flag between 3670/3750. We should have dropped 4 hours ago but out of nowhere a lot of buying power stepped in the market and saved the bear flag from breaking. This increases the chance for a Bart move, so be aware of this. I can't say yet which one it is, but the longer it takes the higher the chances for a Bart move. If this Bart move does happen, it will probably break the 3800 and move towards the 3900ish. If this Bart move happens, it could mean we will move to the upside again of this channel. If we don't see a squeeze happen, the 3800 will be a heavy resistance level for the short term and a key level between very bearish movement or more slow and steady movement as this channel suggests.
So in summary:
- The red line is an assumption, being prepared in case the channel breaks, we make a big drop but start to see a lot of buying that pushes the price back in the channel again. This
scenario suggest a mid-term low, maybe even a long term low if we see a big rally happening.
- Same as the red line, but we don't see a big bounce at the low and stay below the 3500/3600, maybe even making a bigger flag. This would be very bearish and we need to judge things again at that moment.
- A Bart move, if that is the case, we will probably move 6/12 hours like this and see a short squeeze above the 3900ish. If we see a bull flag-ish forming around that level, i think a short term low is set. A break of the channel is obviously important as well, but i think the 4050/4100 is the key level for now. I think a break of this level could give us much more upwards movement. If we see that happening, we would even have a potential big double bottom on the daily. The 4400 (previous high) is obviously an important level as well. But for me to become more bull than bear, the 4600ish will be the level to break. On the long term, anything below 4600 is still very bearish.
So no clear path at this moment, since the bear flag has been turned into a possible Bart move. Since this extended bear flag has made things much more difficult to judge. As long as we don't see rallies of 150+ points, it will remain very bearish.
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Previous analysis:
Uwaga
Sick :)
Uwaga
Chances are increasing now that the (temp) low has been set. We are flagging around 3820 now, which is a bit lower than i thought at first. But the current bull flag seems to be quite stable so we could see another wave up from here if this doesn't take many hours more. We also bounced up exactly from the low of that channel, so we can assume the upside of this channel might be a heavy resistance as well.
Uwaga
So 2 options here, the blue flag on the left might still be in play (even though we went up a bit too much, but only like 20/30 points. So if we see another Bart HERE, it could be that we get a shake out after a shake out :)Anyway, as long as the price stays above the 3785/90ish, this bull flag could remain valid and we should see follow through above the 3900/3950.
If that level 3790 breaks, i would not trust the bull flag anymore
Uwaga
Looks like the blue line version is in play here. As we can see on the left, this bull flag should not have been pushed down as it did at that blue circle. Also the reason why i said not to trust it if it drops below the 3790. Because bull flags fail so many times the past months. I did think this one would have had a very good chance, making at least another wave up, even if the short would have been bearish. But seems there are still no bulls to be found. Alts made bounces up but have given away almost everything again. So i have no other assumption at the moment than to think the blue line is in play here. On the right we can see a possible wedge and this pullback, but it should not have pulled back this much, so i am ignoring it but wanted to show it at least. So unless we see a miraculous move up above the 3840, bearish movement is to be expected.
Uwaga
Bigger picture here:On the left we can see a possible triangle in the making. At the moment i can not say with certainty how we will move, but i am quite sure the red movement will not happen. So for more mid-term bearish movement, we should see that triangle pattern form. If we do break the 3500ish, i think we will make that red line from my first chart, so a drop to prob max 3200/3300 and move up again.
For the green or purple to happen, we have to see a bounce up from around these levels, with a max of 3550/50ish.
The blue i just explained.
On the left we can see a possible bullish wedge, i don't like the shape of it to be honest, but it is there.
Uwaga
I think as long as we stay above the 3550/3500 we can see a decent up happening. Below it, we could see that blue line from the chart above happeningUwaga
Funny to see how that bear flag target (yellow circle on the left) has been reached to the point. So Actually showing that the Bart move was a 100% manipulated move.Still inside that channel on the left btw
Uwaga
Looks like a triangle here, can break both ways. Normally down but i am always objective when seeing triangle like these.The blue circles are the targets zones
Uwaga
Looks like all the bear signs are on, but it's still not dumping. Alts show panic selling (which could be panic lows because of that). So i am starting to get the feeling, that it should have dropped already, but since it is not dropping, something else might be going on. I think the 3660 is the first levels to break, 3700/30 the second. Otherwise have to assume we will drop and follow the red line from the primary chart
Uwaga
That attempt to move up earlier was just taking too long and the bulls could not even get it passed the 3660 so the whole attempt turned into a bear flag. The target of this flag is around the 6250/6350 zone, so i am not sure if it is reached already. We just had a small bounce, but this is not the bounce that can should come with a panic low. Needs to be at least a 300 point squeeze. I think the red line scenario from the chart on the left will be very likely, but it's way to dangerous trying to catch that low. Unless we see a squeeze happen as mentioned above, we will simply continue to drop. So a 200 point squeeze won't do the trick as we have seen earlier today. 300 at least at the first wave.
Only a move above 3850 will get the bulls in the safe zone.
Uwaga
lol, sorry 6250/6350 is of course 3250/3350 :)Uwaga
Last update for the day. Bulls still seem to be without any power whatsoever. Each attempt fails so quickly again. At the moment it lookes like a triangle in the making. I have drawn 3 lines. The red: speaks for itself.
Blue: Good strong breakout
Purple: A slow volume breakout, if that happens it wil most probably drop and reach the target anyway.
About making a low, after all this panic selling, anything below a 300 point squeeze, is quite sure to get dumped again.
Uwaga
The target of that triangle got reached at 3420 but no action since, just moving inside these bear flags. However they do not look the same. The Bitfinex bear flag sees like a standard bear flag but with the one the left that is not the case. When i look at the bear flag of Bitstamp, looks like a lot of buying has been going on there, but it's the only one though. The rest show decreasing volume in this bear flag (bearish signal). Alts are also still not showing any signs of life yet, so at least another drop towards the 3200/3150 has the biggest chance here.
I would keep an eye out on for that green support on left, if that breaks, the little bullish effect there is will probably be gone as well. Now the red line scenario (primary chart) was assuming some kind of V shape, but nothing to be seen yet.
Assuming the bear flag will break, we could make a bear trap move towards the 3200 or simply just drop to the 3050ish target. I can't say yet which one it is, can only judge it live
Uwaga
I see an alternative for the bear flags, that is if we stay above the 3360 and make a move like the blue line. The odds are not great for a move up, i would say 25% as long as we stay below 4420ish. I have seen these moves before, usually go in 3 stages, like i have shown on the left. So just something to keep in mindUwaga
Buying volume is increasing a bit, but still not enough. Uwaga
4420ish is 3420ish, i know most of you already are used to these mistakes, for the ones who are not, extreme numbers are usually mistakes, sorry about that :)Uwaga
Bear flags broke since the bulls simply failed again to break those resistance levels. OI on Mex has been increasing since yesterday, so there is a chance a low is near. Now it's a coin toss about the next step. Only 2 scenario's i have in my mind, the ones mentioned above.
Bear trap around 3200 and up.
Or bear flag target (lowest blue circles) and up.
Only possible way to pinpoint a possible low, is seeing extreme dumping AND and even more extreme buying. If you don't know how to see this, i would not even try to catch the low.
There will always be at least 2 waves up if THE (temp) low is set. Safest is getting in during the bull flag after the first wave up. Catching the low is gambling if you don't know what you have to look at. Because there is simply no way of saying where this might end
Uwaga
I can see a fight has been going on, but it is almost taking too long now, so it has to move up within a few min, otherwise probably drop towards the next blue circleUwaga
Seems like it is already taken too long, so probably up to the next volume pointUwaga
So the 3200 held eventually and the first shorts squeeze just happened. I am not sure yet, but just before the squeeze i changed my plan a bit. I was thinking (that if we would squeeze up) that 3500/3600 could get hit, and from there on we might drop again towards the 3100/3050 before the real squeeze happens. I will try to make a new analysis later today to show what i mean. If the bulls keep the bull flag alive, so making higher lows on the 1 min chart, we could see another jump up.
Uwaga
What a weak ass market, as mentioned above i assumed the chances for another drop were high, but damn, not this fast already. So half hour ago i thought maybe the 3600 would get hit, making an ABC like we did a weak ago, but this is getting dumped so desperately, it might be over already. This is all happening a bit too fast. Maybe if the 3300ish holds, it could still happen, but a drop below 3300 (at the moment seeing some support) will probably mean a drop to a new low. Uwaga
Was just making this one, because i noticed some (bot) similarities. This means if we stay above the 3370/60, this fractal is probably in play. So that ABC might still be in play.So these are the same 2 points as above. But on the left it's a 15m chart and the right a 3m chart
Uwaga
The fractal played out, not perfect but a little bit. The high however was a lower high, so if the fractal was real, it's a very bearish sign. I am going to write a new analysis. I was going to take the day off, usually Saturday nothing happens, but there might be a chance we will see something today. So i will do my best to finish it in time. Before panicking, if that channel on the right breaks, it probably won't happen today and maybe not even at all. 3500/3650 is probably the level to break for the bulls now. To calm things down again. Uwaga
New Bitcoin analysis
Uwaga
Of course we see action happening again while i am gone. Just got back, so still need to look at things first but these bull flags look pretty solid. The lows of these flags should have been set already, so if we stay above the 3380/70, looks like my whole bearish view can be flushed through the toilet :). Just saw a very weird spike on Bitfinex, reaching even 3800. So looks like some whales have a changed their game plan?
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