BTCUSD Bitcoin to $9600 or $6900? Follow the trendlines.
As we can see that after a nice run up to almost $9200, we have lost momentum and the price as gone down to almost $8300. There is a support zone of approximately $8200-8300 and we are caught in a short-term downtrend, as well as the longer term downtrend. Which way will we go now?
Check the chart where we have 1 hour candles.
It's good to remember that none of us knows for certain what will happen, so be ready for surprises. But the trendlines are useful guides to help us know which way it is going. If the support zone of $8200-$8300 is broken, then the chances of testing the bottom of the triangle becomes much higher around $6900 - $7000. There should be good support at that range, but if it fails, then $6000 is next. It is still possible that we bottom out in the $3000-$5000 range, so keep that in mind. But again, we do not know for sure.
If the support zone of $8200-$8300 holds, then we may make a run up to the top of the triangle at around $9600 where there is resistance. There is the possibility of breaking through up to $10,400 where I expect the resistance to be even stronger and the chances of breaking through that the first time is low. It would be a bullish sign to get above the triangle, but keep in mind that buying into the breakout is risky. There are a lot of fake-outs in this market. It is safer to buy on a support test than it is into a breakout - where many other people are buying too. The breakout may be a good opportunity for a short position however, again with risk.
Watch the trendlines and if we break below the $8200-$8300 support zone I expect a big drop.
Also, notice on the BTC 1 day chart, the RSI did not hit the oversold zone of 30 or less at our low around $7200ish. If we hit 30 or lower on RSI on the 1 day chart, then we likely have a good buying opportunity at that time.
This is not investment advice to buy our to sell, just sharing my ideas. Let me know your comments.
Check the chart where we have 1 hour candles.
It's good to remember that none of us knows for certain what will happen, so be ready for surprises. But the trendlines are useful guides to help us know which way it is going. If the support zone of $8200-$8300 is broken, then the chances of testing the bottom of the triangle becomes much higher around $6900 - $7000. There should be good support at that range, but if it fails, then $6000 is next. It is still possible that we bottom out in the $3000-$5000 range, so keep that in mind. But again, we do not know for sure.
If the support zone of $8200-$8300 holds, then we may make a run up to the top of the triangle at around $9600 where there is resistance. There is the possibility of breaking through up to $10,400 where I expect the resistance to be even stronger and the chances of breaking through that the first time is low. It would be a bullish sign to get above the triangle, but keep in mind that buying into the breakout is risky. There are a lot of fake-outs in this market. It is safer to buy on a support test than it is into a breakout - where many other people are buying too. The breakout may be a good opportunity for a short position however, again with risk.
Watch the trendlines and if we break below the $8200-$8300 support zone I expect a big drop.
Also, notice on the BTC 1 day chart, the RSI did not hit the oversold zone of 30 or less at our low around $7200ish. If we hit 30 or lower on RSI on the 1 day chart, then we likely have a good buying opportunity at that time.
This is not investment advice to buy our to sell, just sharing my ideas. Let me know your comments.
Komentarz:
The downward trendline has been broken to the upside to test the 200MA on 1H chart. This breakthrough is a positive sign, but still does not tell us for certain if we will get above the 200MA. If we close below the $8200-$8300 support then this positive sign becomes invalidated.
Komentarz:
Look for a possible support test of $8470 - $8490 to see if it holds up.
Komentarz:
Wow, we actually went almost up to $8700. BTC never ceases to surprise me. But be careful we are in the fake-out zone.
Komentarz:
BTCUSD has chosen the upward path. We are running into some resistance at the 8894 fib line
Komentarz:
BTC has been holding above the $8894 fib line now. Positive sign. Targeting $9600 to $10,400 now
Komentarz:
I see some similarities in this move as the move from Feb 6 - Feb 14
Komentarz:
That's strange, it seems to think my green arrow is a trendline, lol. That was not intentional. :)
Komentarz:
Support test went to $8460 -- almost what I said with support test to $8470-$8490 above, but it happened later than I thought. As long as this holds up, we are ok, IMO. We are still within the range of normal drops at this level. It presents a buying opportunity. But holding the $8200-$8300 range is crucial. If that fails, we will get a big drop. And my green arrow no longer is acting as a trendline, but that is ok, I didn't mean it to be a trendline
Komentarz:
The bullish possibility is still valid until we get a candle closed below support of around $8200-$8300 but it will be very concerning to have any price lower than the low on 3/23/18. That would be a warning sign. There are some concerns with how the prices are acting, but we still cannot rule out that we may be entering a sine wave trading range. Get a close lower than support, then that would indicate the ship is sinking. It hasn't happened yet.
Komentarz:
$8300 support is clearly broken now. Now we can expect it to move downwards. It is possible to get another retest of the resistance $8300 from the underside, but not for sure. There is a stronger possibility of going to the bottom around $7000 now.