Panic is gone. The signal this is a bear market rally has been given. What we see since August Top is discouragement and aversion. Like Mamis explains, in this phase there are no good economic news flow ( inflation , rate hikes...) and everyone thinks the market will go down forever.
This phase could take anywhere from a few months to more than a year. With BTC I think it will take until Q2 2023 at least.
However, what’s important here is not just time, but price. With discouragements sellers are in control and they will push the prices lower. What happens is that BTC has 90% chances will bottom below 16k in this bear market, breaking below the June panic phase level (17.4k). How much below it ? My prediction is somewhere between 11-13k during November - January 2023.
In 2023-24 smart money will start to get back in. This is the Wall of Worry moment of The Sentiment Cycle, where the smart money moves in slowly, accumulates the lows and keep the prices relatively stable despite bearish or bullish news coming in. An experience investor will know when we are there.
Last phase is aversion to denial. Bitcoin will be at the highs of the panic phase (28-36k), but most will be too concerned to take action because of what happened before.They will doubt the rally will continue and prepare for the worse to happen, only to be left behind. The bull market starts here in full force.
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This phase could take anywhere from a few months to more than a year. With BTC I think it will take until Q2 2023 at least.
However, what’s important here is not just time, but price. With discouragements sellers are in control and they will push the prices lower. What happens is that BTC has 90% chances will bottom below 16k in this bear market, breaking below the June panic phase level (17.4k). How much below it ? My prediction is somewhere between 11-13k during November - January 2023.
In 2023-24 smart money will start to get back in. This is the Wall of Worry moment of The Sentiment Cycle, where the smart money moves in slowly, accumulates the lows and keep the prices relatively stable despite bearish or bullish news coming in. An experience investor will know when we are there.
Last phase is aversion to denial. Bitcoin will be at the highs of the panic phase (28-36k), but most will be too concerned to take action because of what happened before.They will doubt the rally will continue and prepare for the worse to happen, only to be left behind. The bull market starts here in full force.