Around a week ago when BTCUSDT dumped below 200EMA/$42k, I published an idea to analyze the BTC bear scenario using Elliot Wave, and I got so much not very friendly feedback, while all those bulls on TradingView calling ATH again at $40k got hundreds of pats on the back, I guess maybe cryptos can only go up and that could be the reason my bear scenario idea offended so many people here.
Again, I'm not a bear, I believe in cryptos and I am actively looking to long BTC/ETH/Altcoins to HODL a few years, however, as a long-term bull I still want to consider both scenarios in the short-term (within a few months to year-end), and so should everyone especially we just pulled back more than 50% from the ATH a month ago.
The bear scenario based on Elliot Wave from my last idea is still valid, the push to 200EMA at $42k and got rejected validated the 4th wave again, at 0.382 level, the bear 5 wave structure is still in play until we push above 200EMA at $42k. The previous low at $29k ish will stand as a strong support that prevents further drops, but once we go below this support I see $20k incoming as the 5th wave and the high in 2017, which should stop the bleeding while the RSI is around historical low as well. However, if we break above and hold 200EMA at around $42k, then this 5 wave bear scenario is likely not valid anymore and bulls are coming back.
In conclusion, between $30k to $40k are just not very good zones to buy, because it's clearly consolidating and looking for the next move, we could go above 200EMA and get back to the previous bull run again, or we will be very likely to head below $39k and get to that $20k target. Yes, We are missing 20-30% in this zone but is it that much? I don't think anyone in the crypto market is looking for 20% gain where we can just get it from buying index funds, everyone is looking to HODL for the next 10x or 30x, so what's the rush for 20-30%?
Again, I'm not a bear, I believe in cryptos and I am actively looking to long BTC/ETH/Altcoins to HODL a few years, however, as a long-term bull I still want to consider both scenarios in the short-term (within a few months to year-end), and so should everyone especially we just pulled back more than 50% from the ATH a month ago.
The bear scenario based on Elliot Wave from my last idea is still valid, the push to 200EMA at $42k and got rejected validated the 4th wave again, at 0.382 level, the bear 5 wave structure is still in play until we push above 200EMA at $42k. The previous low at $29k ish will stand as a strong support that prevents further drops, but once we go below this support I see $20k incoming as the 5th wave and the high in 2017, which should stop the bleeding while the RSI is around historical low as well. However, if we break above and hold 200EMA at around $42k, then this 5 wave bear scenario is likely not valid anymore and bulls are coming back.
In conclusion, between $30k to $40k are just not very good zones to buy, because it's clearly consolidating and looking for the next move, we could go above 200EMA and get back to the previous bull run again, or we will be very likely to head below $39k and get to that $20k target. Yes, We are missing 20-30% in this zone but is it that much? I don't think anyone in the crypto market is looking for 20% gain where we can just get it from buying index funds, everyone is looking to HODL for the next 10x or 30x, so what's the rush for 20-30%?
