Surprise, surprise! Bitcoin at 14.500, but altcoins will shine!
I believe that the next move is up – a lot.
Why that?
During the last six months, what happened was a surprise for most people.
Just a few months ago everybody was still very bearish and fearful, expecting that BTC will go even lower, to 2000. Only a few were buying.
Then, in April 2019 we had a surprising surge which went parabolic from 3.600 to almost 14.000 and the rise had just one short 15 days consolidation phase.
Once this run finished at the end of June, many called it „unnatural,“ „too fast.“
What this means is that they simply missed the boat.
Most people just watched the whole move with fear and did not enter the market.
They didn't buy at any time.
The reason, of course, is that they still believed that we are actually in a bear market, and the move up is just a correction in a bear market.
This means... they were afraid to buy.
Now, as we are up and above 10.000 currently, everybody who missed the boat is genuinely wishing to enter the market... but at lower prices.
Compared to 4.000 or 6.000, 10.000 seems too expensive.
They don't want to pay 10.000 for one BTC it looks very risky: „What if the price falls and I bought so high“? or even worse, „What if this is just a correction in a bear market, and I bought at the top?“
Not only that, I almost don't seem fair to pay 10.000 for something that looked expensive at 6.000.
So, what is their strategy (and hope) right now?
As BTC moved so fast, the assumption is that there must come a deeper correction, a severe drop in price - maybe to 8.000, even perhaps to 6.000.
This is what hopes everybody who missed the first surge... to enter the market, but cheaper.
For example, today I read an article that there is a buying wall at 150 for ETHUSD.
Well, all these people are making a rational decision.
They are waiting for the market to come „to them“, they don't chase the market, they don't go FOMO.
If we look at the fear-greed index BTC, today we have - extreme fear.
This means everybody is extremely fearful.
But what the hell are people afraid of?
If they are in the market since 4.000, they should be happy and calm because their position is 150% positive and even if it retraces lower, no real problem.
But, instead of happy, profit enjoying investors... we have a lot of fear.
So, what is the real fear here?
I believe that the current fear is not that the market will drop, but that it won't.
I believe we are witnessing the beginning of FOMO right now.
Imagine that you missed a huge opportunity to double your money and you watch the market consolidating.
What would you hope for, what would you be afraid of?
You would hope that the consolidation comes to your price so that you can buy cheap, and you would be afraid – that it doesn't.
There is a saying that the market climbs on the wall of fear.
Right now we have fear, a lot of it.
The real fear today is that the boat will run away even further.
For BTC, this fear seems like a good sign, a bullish sign, that we might go up – very soon.
We know that the market is punishing the many and rewarding the few.
Everybody cannot win – this is not possible.
If everybody would buy today, who will buy at 16.000?
Well, we know who: everybody who was too fearful of buying at 10.000. or 11, 12, 13, 14, 15.999.
After many years of trading, I always ask myself... what would we the biggest surprise in this market?
What is nobody expecting?
What is everybody expecting?
We actually know what everybody is expecting.
That we will have a deeper correction, that we MUST go lower.
Just read a few comments here on Tradingview... look how many people are expecting the price to drop more, at least to 8.000.
It seems that the biggest surprise would be a significant move up, right from here, or very soon.
Maybe we do consolidate a little bit more, we might even drop to 9.500, just to shake out more people, but everybody would be caught off guard if we move up 20-30% in a few days.
Now imagine that, imagine the market closes soon above 14.000 and everybody is still on the sidelines... in pain.
What would happen... FOMO. Major FOMO.
All those guys extremely fearful today would start buying, and that could quickly push the price to 16.000 and more.
And then, imagine we brake ATH a month later.
Suddenly, we are at 22.000, and still many, many people are on the sidelines... waiting and hoping that the market "comes to them".
Then the media machine kicks in.
BTC starts to be on the news, on talk shows.
More and more people start buying... and they start talking and spreading their great idea to their friends and grandma.
Then we get BTC ETF confirmed.
Now even more new money comes in, institutional buyers get also FOMO because they are human too, and then more retail first buyers and sleepers come in... we are now at 32.000, or maybe 50.000 and euphoria is rampant.
... from this perspective, how does today's price of 10.000 looks like?
But first is this scenario probable?
I believe it would be logical because emotions rule the market.
Well, is it probable that the market will give a beautiful gift to the „patient + rational“ buyers at 8.000?
Maybe, but I don't think so.
To conclude, what to do today?
I suggest we do what only a few do – the brave ones.
We buy at 10.000... at least a little and if the market moves up, scale in to build a full position.
Right now, I don't have the time to share my thoughts on why I believe that altcoins will lead the next bull run, so I finish for today.
How do you feel about the market today? Please share your thoughts and intuitions.
All the best to all, and always and forever... think for yourself.
Why that?
During the last six months, what happened was a surprise for most people.
Just a few months ago everybody was still very bearish and fearful, expecting that BTC will go even lower, to 2000. Only a few were buying.
Then, in April 2019 we had a surprising surge which went parabolic from 3.600 to almost 14.000 and the rise had just one short 15 days consolidation phase.
Once this run finished at the end of June, many called it „unnatural,“ „too fast.“
What this means is that they simply missed the boat.
Most people just watched the whole move with fear and did not enter the market.
They didn't buy at any time.
The reason, of course, is that they still believed that we are actually in a bear market, and the move up is just a correction in a bear market.
This means... they were afraid to buy.
Now, as we are up and above 10.000 currently, everybody who missed the boat is genuinely wishing to enter the market... but at lower prices.
Compared to 4.000 or 6.000, 10.000 seems too expensive.
They don't want to pay 10.000 for one BTC it looks very risky: „What if the price falls and I bought so high“? or even worse, „What if this is just a correction in a bear market, and I bought at the top?“
Not only that, I almost don't seem fair to pay 10.000 for something that looked expensive at 6.000.
So, what is their strategy (and hope) right now?
As BTC moved so fast, the assumption is that there must come a deeper correction, a severe drop in price - maybe to 8.000, even perhaps to 6.000.
This is what hopes everybody who missed the first surge... to enter the market, but cheaper.
For example, today I read an article that there is a buying wall at 150 for ETHUSD.
Well, all these people are making a rational decision.
They are waiting for the market to come „to them“, they don't chase the market, they don't go FOMO.
If we look at the fear-greed index BTC, today we have - extreme fear.
This means everybody is extremely fearful.
But what the hell are people afraid of?
If they are in the market since 4.000, they should be happy and calm because their position is 150% positive and even if it retraces lower, no real problem.
But, instead of happy, profit enjoying investors... we have a lot of fear.
So, what is the real fear here?
I believe that the current fear is not that the market will drop, but that it won't.
I believe we are witnessing the beginning of FOMO right now.
Imagine that you missed a huge opportunity to double your money and you watch the market consolidating.
What would you hope for, what would you be afraid of?
You would hope that the consolidation comes to your price so that you can buy cheap, and you would be afraid – that it doesn't.
There is a saying that the market climbs on the wall of fear.
Right now we have fear, a lot of it.
The real fear today is that the boat will run away even further.
For BTC, this fear seems like a good sign, a bullish sign, that we might go up – very soon.
We know that the market is punishing the many and rewarding the few.
Everybody cannot win – this is not possible.
If everybody would buy today, who will buy at 16.000?
Well, we know who: everybody who was too fearful of buying at 10.000. or 11, 12, 13, 14, 15.999.
After many years of trading, I always ask myself... what would we the biggest surprise in this market?
What is nobody expecting?
What is everybody expecting?
We actually know what everybody is expecting.
That we will have a deeper correction, that we MUST go lower.
Just read a few comments here on Tradingview... look how many people are expecting the price to drop more, at least to 8.000.
It seems that the biggest surprise would be a significant move up, right from here, or very soon.
Maybe we do consolidate a little bit more, we might even drop to 9.500, just to shake out more people, but everybody would be caught off guard if we move up 20-30% in a few days.
Now imagine that, imagine the market closes soon above 14.000 and everybody is still on the sidelines... in pain.
What would happen... FOMO. Major FOMO.
All those guys extremely fearful today would start buying, and that could quickly push the price to 16.000 and more.
And then, imagine we brake ATH a month later.
Suddenly, we are at 22.000, and still many, many people are on the sidelines... waiting and hoping that the market "comes to them".
Then the media machine kicks in.
BTC starts to be on the news, on talk shows.
More and more people start buying... and they start talking and spreading their great idea to their friends and grandma.
Then we get BTC ETF confirmed.
Now even more new money comes in, institutional buyers get also FOMO because they are human too, and then more retail first buyers and sleepers come in... we are now at 32.000, or maybe 50.000 and euphoria is rampant.
... from this perspective, how does today's price of 10.000 looks like?
But first is this scenario probable?
I believe it would be logical because emotions rule the market.
Well, is it probable that the market will give a beautiful gift to the „patient + rational“ buyers at 8.000?
Maybe, but I don't think so.
To conclude, what to do today?
I suggest we do what only a few do – the brave ones.
We buy at 10.000... at least a little and if the market moves up, scale in to build a full position.
Right now, I don't have the time to share my thoughts on why I believe that altcoins will lead the next bull run, so I finish for today.
How do you feel about the market today? Please share your thoughts and intuitions.
All the best to all, and always and forever... think for yourself.