#202413 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btc
Good day and i hope you are well.
From my weekly outlook yesterday...
bitcoin
bull case: Bulls bought the weekly low below 61000 big time and produced a big enough reversal bar to make me think that they can get a measured move from it and that would also align with a retest of the highs or making another ath above 74000. They need to get follow through tomorrow and break above the bear channel we are currently in. That would delay my bearish wave thesis a couple of days. My bullish W5 concluded with the ath 73805 and for now i give the highest odds to my bullish two legged up move (ABC) to retest of the highs before starting a new bear trend.
bear case: Bears had a wedge bear flag down so far (also a bear channel) and we are right at the upper trend line and bulls seem to be able to break above it. Will see it before EU open imo. If bears are strong, they will keep it below 68000 but certainly below 70000 to keep many bulls trapped. If bulls break 70000, we will retest 73000 with high probability. I do think the newly drawn lower bull trend line (now around 62800, will be broken over the next 3-6 weeks.
outlook last week: “sideways to down - if we break 65000 again, could test 60000 fast and that would conclude my W1 and by then we are almost certainly in the next bear trend down to below 50000.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 68000 and now we are at 66000. Low of the week was 60761. Name me one furu who gives this out for free on a daily basis and hits those big shots week after week. Will give you 3 months in my trading room for free if you find one.
short term: Slightly bullish but invalid below 63000. Retest of 72000/73000 expected
medium-long term: down to 30000 (could take 1-2 years)
From my weekly outlook yesterday...
bitcoin
bull case: Bulls bought the weekly low below 61000 big time and produced a big enough reversal bar to make me think that they can get a measured move from it and that would also align with a retest of the highs or making another ath above 74000. They need to get follow through tomorrow and break above the bear channel we are currently in. That would delay my bearish wave thesis a couple of days. My bullish W5 concluded with the ath 73805 and for now i give the highest odds to my bullish two legged up move (ABC) to retest of the highs before starting a new bear trend.
bear case: Bears had a wedge bear flag down so far (also a bear channel) and we are right at the upper trend line and bulls seem to be able to break above it. Will see it before EU open imo. If bears are strong, they will keep it below 68000 but certainly below 70000 to keep many bulls trapped. If bulls break 70000, we will retest 73000 with high probability. I do think the newly drawn lower bull trend line (now around 62800, will be broken over the next 3-6 weeks.
outlook last week: “sideways to down - if we break 65000 again, could test 60000 fast and that would conclude my W1 and by then we are almost certainly in the next bear trend down to below 50000.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 68000 and now we are at 66000. Low of the week was 60761. Name me one furu who gives this out for free on a daily basis and hits those big shots week after week. Will give you 3 months in my trading room for free if you find one.
short term: Slightly bullish but invalid below 63000. Retest of 72000/73000 expected
medium-long term: down to 30000 (could take 1-2 years)
