BTC to $900's?

BTCUSD Analysis - Macro view:

After eye balling what appeared to be *either* a bear flag *or* a pennant breaking down, I had decided to play with some traditional TA targets. As is the norm, traditional technical analyis begins with the pole length. In this case, I have identified up to 4 different poles, which means up to 4 different target prices. I have outlined the poles in the graphic above, noted as A B C and D. The targets are calculated by subtracting the pole lengths from the "break" of the macro patterns. In this case, the "break" took place today at ~$3,850. Therefore, the targets are as follows (rounded up):

• $2,300
  
• $1,700
  
• $1,550
  
• $ 950
  

Note 1: This is all based on the premise that a macro bear pattern has broken and a continuation is occurring. In the event this is proven wrong, this TA is considered *void*. I would look at a daily close above ~$3,900 as a signal that this is no longer in effect.

Note 2: This idea of looking for lower lows is supported by an obvious lack of buyers (shown in the volume profiles) plus an "over bought" signal on the Stoch RSI.

Note 3: The bulls do have *some* indicators in their favor, such as the market wide "shorts" being at an unsustainable 3:1 ratio (shorts:longs) currently. Historically, this has led to a sudden and unexpected "pump". However, one cannot trade based on what's unseen.

Note 4: None of this is investment advice. This is for educational purposes only.

Komentarz:

Idea was 100% invalidated after failing to break below $3100 across 2 weeks of attempts. In hindsight, the better/more macro play would've been to look for macro spot longs and not even attempt to short. Live and learn - never would even attempt a setup like this today.